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feb 7-9 threat obs


tombo82685

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FWIW, 18Z NAM has virtually no precip for I-95 overnight.

Steady rain here now....40F. Been raining steadily for over an hour sooooo, I would say the NAM at 18Z:

A) should be thrown out

B ) was suffering from convective feedback issues

C) had the right idea but missed the boat on the QPF totals

D) performed worse than the 18Z NOGAPS

E) was outperformed by the 12Z CRAS

F) all of the above

Choose as many as you feel are correct :)

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PHI is on all night and will be looking for snow at elevation and gradu descending and any amounts/location will be helpful. am thinking the hrrr and 00z NAM just arent respecting reality of ice crystal seeing as trof goes neg and redevelopment of seeing clouds occurs westward in central va. thanks wd/phi 918pm.

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PHI is on all night and will be looking for snow at elevation and gradu descending and any amounts/location will be helpful. am thinking the hrrr and 00z NAM just arent respecting reality of ice crystal seeing as trof goes neg and redevelopment of seeing clouds occurs westward in central va. thanks wd/phi 918pm.

I just checked my cabin cams and it has been snowing for the last few hours in the lake harmony area. Looks like its coming close to an inch thus far. Cabin is at 2000ft .Been holding around 31.7 for the last few hours with a little deviation.

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I just checked my cabin cams and it has been snowing for the last few hours in the lake harmony area. Looks like its coming close to an inch thus far. Cabin is at 2000ft .Been holding around 31.7 for the last few hours with a little deviation.

thanks... actual amounts will asist and post in our pns as they develop. going to be squally near daybreak...interesting 24 hrs ahead. wd

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thanks... actual amounts will asist and post in our pns as they develop. going to be squally near daybreak...interesting 24 hrs ahead. wd

Indeed

The winds up there should be cranking.....but I am on the eastern side of the mountain and protected from the strong winds. My station does not pick up W and NW well.

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Steady rain here now....40F. Been raining steadily for over an hour sooooo, I would say the NAM at 18Z:

A) should be thrown out

B ) was suffering from convective feedback issues

C) had the right idea but missed the boat on the QPF totals

D) performed worse than the 18Z NOGAPS

E) was outperformed by the 12Z CRAS

F) all of the above

Choose as many as you feel are correct :)

Yeah obviously the NAM was *too* dry... though since PHL has only had 0.01" thru 10PM it wasn't *that* far off so far. Steady rain? :whistle:

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Yeah obviously the NAM was *too* dry... though since PHL has only had 0.01" thru 10PM it wasn't *that* far off so far. Steady rain? :whistle:

.01 at PHI but nearly 4 hrs of r- there and not very far away sitting at .02-05 from s to ne and nw. if its snow... no on4e is happy. nam too dry. current modeling suggests rgem finally onto it. we'll watch this evolve as the night goes on. wd

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Morning all...

currently 24.8F with light snow falling. So far total accum is about 2.5 inches. I see the plow passed through....(on top of the mountain where we are they plow 1" plus otherwise accidents become common place and or you freeze over and can't leave the top).Looks like visibility is about 3/4 mile in fog and snow. Here is the low res web cam snap shot....

post-520-0-20618300-1297171315.jpg

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