tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Some of the gfs ens members, well i should say a lot of them are pretty bullish on a wave developing along the cold front bringing snow in tuesday.. This may be a long shot but there definitely potential. Just looking at the 11 ens members 7 of the 11 bring snow into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's possible our area could get a little bit of snow (I wouldn't think more than 2 inches) with this. It's something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Do you guys think this would enhance or hinder the potentially big storm coming on the 10th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Do you guys think this would enhance or hinder the potentially big storm coming on the 10th? I'd think it can only enhance the chances by acting as a 50/50 low. The big key for the 10-11th is the phasing of the northern stream though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Appetizer before the big dog next week. I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 This storm plays a huge role on the mid next week event. The larger this storm is the better, because it sets up a 50/50 low and knocks down the hgts along the east coast. That is the difference between the euro and gfs right now. The euro doesn't blow this storm up and causes a hugger/inland track. While the gfs does and moves the baroclinic zone offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This storm plays a huge role on the mid next week event. The larger this storm is the better, because it sets up a 50/50 low and knocks down the hgts along the east coast. That is the difference between the euro and gfs right now. The euro doesn't blow this storm up and causes a hugger/inland track. While the gfs does and moves the baroclinic zone offshore. So we should hope for this storm to keep trending stronger and stronger with the runs right Tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 So we should hope for this storm to keep trending stronger and stronger with the runs right Tom? well it doesnt have to trend stronger for it to hit us, it just has to blow up somewhere from here to new foundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Some of those it looks like the wave acts to enhance post frontal precip as it scoots by, a couple seem closer to an outright storm. Have not followed the ens for this time period, is this a recent development or have some members been showing this potential before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS has big changes it appears with this threatges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS has big changes it appears with this threatges Still turns out to be a light event, but doesn't it look loser to something bigger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still turns out to be a light event, but doesn't it look loser to something bigger? It sure does look that way at 500mb for a time, but slips to far NE to be significant. Bears watching though especially with all the short-range cha-cha-cha this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still turns out to be a light event, but doesn't it look loser to something bigger? On a sidenote, it woudl have to provide a blocking feature for thurs event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 only issue here is, you need a bigger storm cause the bl is torched before the storm. On the gfs that .1-.25 of qpf is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 only issue here is, you need a bigger storm cause the bl is torched before the storm. On the gfs that .1-.25 of qpf is rain The southern energy would have to be delayed a bit and then phase perfectly for it to be anything of substance. Best bet is to get some back end snow showers with the upper energy pivoting through and hope the southern stream is pushed further east so the colder air can work in. Might not give people much but it's possible to get a couple inches north/west of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z gfs ens mean is pretty bullish on this potenital fwiw...to much bl issues though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 ggem has a nice storm for us, but im not sure if its warm or not in the bl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 anyone have the link to the ptype map for the ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 rain --> snow, only 1-3 hrs of snow in philly but the LV may pick up a few inches http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html <----- Precip Type Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 rain --> snow, only 1-3 hrs of snow in philly but the LV may pick up a few inches http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html <----- Precip Type Map yea i figured that, the storm riding into the oh valley kills it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 yea i figured that, the storm riding into the oh valley kills it I'm still surprised it has so much moisture as far back west as it does. something to watch, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 In an effort to contribute more and lurk less, can someone please point me in the right direction for determining surface temps with the gfs maps? I only see 850 temps, yet some folks seem to know whether the BL is torched or cold enough for all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 In an effort to contribute more and lurk less, can someone please point me in the right direction for determining surface temps with the gfs maps? I only see 850 temps, yet some folks seem to know whether the BL is torched or cold enough for all snow. i have stormvista and it shows the 925mb temps...the regular ncep gfs doesnt have 925mb temps you would have to look at a sounding...you can use this site for the gfs, its slower coming out but it shows the 925mb temps http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=31&model_init_hh=12&fhour=00¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 anyone have the link to the ptype map for the ggem? Mostly rain with a quick changeover toward the end. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i have stormvista and it shows the 925mb temps...the regular ncep gfs doesnt have 925mb temps you would have to look at a sounding...you can use this site for the gfs, its slower coming out but it shows the 925mb temps http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Euro PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i have stormvista and it shows the 925mb temps...the regular ncep gfs doesnt have 925mb temps you would have to look at a sounding...you can use this site for the gfs, its slower coming out but it shows the 925mb temps http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Excellent site - thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro tries to bomb the storm on Tuesday and dumps a quick thump of a few inches of snow early Tuesday morning (generally city/east). 850's are supportive of snow...bottom layer above freezing but I can see this being a light rain to deformation snow type thump for someone. Much more impressive hit for New England though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro may not provide much snow here on tuesday but it sets the stage for snowier storm on thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If the canadian and ECM verify, Tuesday's AM commute will be a mess from the city N&W, especially if no one is expecting this "storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 yea the euro has the that storm on tuesday, but the oh valley low is mucking everything up in the lower levels...euro pops .25-.5 of qpf...we need that ohio valley storm to trend weaker or further south or pop the coastal faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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