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Feb 5-7th MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event


Chicago Storm

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MKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

924 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

.UPDATE...MODERATE SNOW HAS RESULTED IN 3-4 INCHES OVER FAR SRN

WI AS OF 9 AM. 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN IL WILL TRACK EWD

TOWARD LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEP LAYER OF WEAK TO MDT

FRONTOGENESIS OVER FAR NRN IL AND SRN WI. DENDRITE ZONE ABOUT 100

MB DEEP AND SNOW RATIOS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 1. MOST OF THE HEAVIER

SNOW WILL BE OVER BY NOON TO 1 PM BUT LGT SNOW WILL CONTINUE

ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AS NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL

CONTRIBUTE TO LGT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE FLOW WILL BECOME DUE

NORTH BY EARLY EVENING...THUS ENDING THE LGT LAKE EFFECT.

FORECASTED 4-6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA BUT 7 INCH AMOUNTS ARE

POSSIBLE.

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A bit of a snowy surprise this morning in Madison. The snow was supposed to come later and accumulate to less than 0.1" liquid, but the snow's here and it's coming down at a moderate pace, and 0.10" has already been recorded.

Probably at least another few hours of snowfall, so we'll probably end up with a couple inches.

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Posted the following in the wrong thread initially.

-SN just started here. It'll be interesting to see what transpires. Northern s/w is moisture starved and is waiting to die (in response to being absorbed by the dominant southern storm) but in the mean time it'll basically stall over Lk Huron. Anytime you can get an area of low pressure to stall, even a pitiful one like this, it can lead to surprise snowfall amounts locally.

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I was forgetting the NAM has been south of OH for tomorrow. But it is actually stronger. If the GFS comes in the same as it has been, its going to be a matter of which model you wanna believe. One model shows basically nothing across central OH while the other shows 3-4" in east central OH

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