Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What the hell, lets go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GGEM has a similar track to the GFS but weaker/faster/drier. Still could be a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This one has a good chance of being rain for me. GFS has a track from Kentucky to Ohio. It will be interesting to watch where this thing will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What an odd little system embedded in the NW flow--the meso models are consistently stronger with the northern mid level circulation and even close it off as it passes through the Dakotas and into MN/WI. GFS also trending a little wetter and farther N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 06z GFS is coming in much stronger and wetter inline with the SREF's with the northern mid level circulation and associated surface low into MN/IA/WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 DTX says 1-2" with snow likely sunday night, but add that if trends continue snow amounts will be raised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 models are suggesting several inches of long duration snow possible monday-tuesday in e.ontario/Sw quebec from a pseudoclipper-miller B transfer setup. GEM 2-4 euro 3-6 GFS 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM continues to be more wound up/north with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If someone could post the EURO QPF for YYZ for the Sunday-Monday-Tuesday storm, I'd appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If someone could post the EURO QPF for YYZ for the Sunday-Monday-Tuesday storm, I'd appreciate it. its around 0.5 for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 its around 0.5 for you Now you're dishing out the big bucks? Cool. The more EURO QPF sources, the better. 0.5" is really quite excellent for something that up until recently has been flying under the radar screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Does the euro phase with the Monday storm or is it just one system. Dtw precip? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM looks like it'll make a significant shift towards the other guidance at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I wouldn't put too much stock at all in the model's handling of this system. They're quite frankly still clueless with our now ongoing system. Tulsa & Dallas are seeing/saw winter storms they weren't even suppose to see yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM looks like it'll make a significant shift towards the other guidance at 18z. Well now the euro ensembles are really starting to key in on the Mon/Tues event ( This one ) and a few really develop it as it tracks from KY into Ohio to near Lake Erie/Ontario. They actually now have the .50+ line running fromnear Beau to IND to Ft. Wayne to Toledo to Toronto with the .25+ line running from St. Louis to near/just southeast of Chicago to near Grand Rapids to Bay City. They are now really weak with the second piece of energy ( The JB super storm ) and send it off the se coast and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 its around 0.5 for you Now you're dishing out the big bucks? Cool. The more EURO QPF sources, the better. 0.5" is really quite excellent for something that up until recently has been flying under the radar screen. Haha--everyone is caving to the Europeans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well now the euro ensembles are really starting to key in on the Mon/Tues event ( This one ) and a few really develop it as it tracks from KY into Ohio to near Lake Erie/Ontario. They actually now have the .50+ line running fromnear Beau to IND to Ft. Wayne to Toledo to Toronto with the .25+ line running from St. Louis to near/just southeast of Chicago to near Grand Rapids to Bay City. They are now really weak with the second piece of energy ( The JB super storm ) and send it off the se coast and out to sea. I believe it. Sounds like some of the 15z SREFS. Too bad about the second storm, especially since it had the potential to be huge, but if I had to chose between one or the other I'll take a moderate-moderately heavy event in the short term just because of the huge uncertainty with the second one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still early but the stronger Mondays storm is the more likely it takes away the thunder from the Mega jB storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I believe it. Sounds like some of the 15z SREFS. Too bad about the second storm, especially since it had the potential to be huge, but if I had to chose between one or the other I'll take a moderate-moderately heavy event in the short term just because of the huge uncertainty with the second one. I hear you and fully agree. BTW.. They are not all that impressive with system 1 either. Most of what falls is in Ohio se of a line from Cleveland to Dayton with .25+. and the .10 line runs from between you and Buffalo back to Monroe and near LAF and then to St. Louis on back to the KS/OK/MO lines. So yeah they seem to be focusing in on system 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Euro missed the phase, but it moved closer with the STJ going right up the east coast instead of off it. Frankly, if that did phase the models would lose even more confidence. I hope it doesn't for their sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I wouldn't put too much stock at all in the model's handling of this system. They're quite frankly still clueless with our now ongoing system. Tulsa & Dallas are seeing/saw winter storms they weren't even suppose to see yesterday. what a terrible bust in a place that rarely sees snow and gets paralyzed by 1/2 an inch, that IS brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the NAM solution is so different then the 12z run I had to double check the time stamp 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Oz Nam trying to spit out a little LE on the westen side of lake michigan at 60-66 hrs??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the RGEM at 48h certainly looks a lot more robust than the NCEP models tonight at all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the RGEM at 48h certainly looks a lot more robust than the NCEP models tonight at all levels. Considering how they have done with what looks like the surprise tomorrow i think the NCEP models still may not have it all yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Considering how they have done with what looks like the surprise tomorrow i think the NCEP models still may not have it all yet. yeah the RGEM was really the only model to spread qpf back through WNY with this next event tomorrow...it certainly led the trend west. its been on a roll lately....i guess it likes this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the RGEM at 48h certainly looks a lot more robust than the NCEP models tonight at all levels. Haven't the NCEP models been lost since a few days before the blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Haven't the NCEP models been lost since a few days before the blizzard? pretty much yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 yeah the RGEM was really the only model to spread qpf back through WNY with this next event tomorrow...it certainly led the trend west. its been on a roll lately....i guess it likes this pattern. Lack of blocking is it's strength. We are basically back to what we had in 07-08 and or before all the blocking. GFS etc loves the blocking stuff and thus why it did so well with it and now that the blocking is gone it is back to sucking in the mid range while the rgem etc has soared back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 06z RGEM still robust with the snows across IA/N ILL/S Wis, N Ind, Michigan, and into NW Ohio. I think Today's, the 6th-7th, Later next week events are going to leave parts of N Ind/Michigan some ridiculous snow depths when added to the Blizzard of 2011 Snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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