Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 No, it is raining/wet snowing. Sleet I suppose. Temperature up to 0.7C at my place. I can't imagine the temperature will go down until tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 yeah, it's tough. Another storm of your dreams gets away. Just have to remember not to take it too personally. It's the storm, not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 No snow for me today and still 37*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Sorry about the bust YOW boys. If it's any consolation, that was supposed to be my snow according to the GFS 4 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Sorry about the bust YOW boys. If it's any consolation, that was supposed to be my snow according to the GFS 4 days ago. Thanks Canuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Sorry about the bust YOW boys. If it's any consolation, that was supposed to be my snow according to the GFS 4 days ago. its a brutal fail by the NCEP/GEM models. they were about 100km/ 60 miles off with the snow within 36 hours of the event start which is just a huge error at that lead time, mostly because they had been stable for several days. euro was the way to go, but when the NAM+GFS+RGEM agreed, along with the SREFs, i bit. figured the euro was laying another egg. then saturday 6z NAM began the shift north and east and the rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Thanks Canuck. Trends were not your friend. I was surprised when EC went with 10-15 at their 3.30 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 its a brutal fail by the NCEP/GEM models. they were about 100km/ 60 miles off with the snow within 36 hours of the event start which is just a huge error at that lead time. euro was the way to go, but when the NAM+GFS+RGEM agreed, along with the SREFs, i bit. Sounds like what happened to me with the Feb 1-2 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Thanks Canuck. well you could always drive north over the bridge into gatineau where its snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 No, it is raining/wet snowing. Sleet I suppose. Temperature up to 0.7C at my place. I can't imagine the temperature will go down until tomorrow afternoon. Sorry, when I looked at the data last night....I thought for sure 2-5 inches was in your future today. This is one of my biggest bust ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Sorry, when I looked at the data last night....I thought for sure 2-5 inches was in your future today. This is one of my biggest bust ever dont worry TG, since i started making local forecasts on the boards 3 years ago, this is easily my worst bust ever too. and its is snowing in ottawa, just in northern sections of the city. basicallly the warm air is draped across the city and sitting there with a S wind in southern sections, and a N wind in northern section. we are talking over a distance of about 20 km. in all my years of weather watching, ive never ever seen anything like it, as the ottawa valley effect holds true over the entire city, not just part of it. id be less surprised if the entire city was over to rain......but as it is setup now, im stunned and i dont think anyone could have predicted it....well i know i couldnt have thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 dont worry TG, since i started making local forecasts on the boards 3 years ago, this is easily my worst bust ever too. and its is snowing in ottawa, just in northern sections of the city. basicallly the warm air is draped across the city and sitting there with a S wind in southern sections, and a N wind in northern section. we are talking over a distance of about 20 km. in all my years of weather watching, ive never ever seen anything like it, as the ottawa valley effect holds true over the entire city, not just part of it. id be less surprised if the entire city was over to rain......but as it is setup now, im stunned and i dont think anyone could have predicted it....well i know i couldnt have thats for sure. Thanks....Yes it is one of the craziest situations I've ever seen....I never envisioned the warm air Incursion; but the WF was a little further north than I had thought it would be....The inversion will keep temps above 0c tonight...until the CF moves through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 SN- continues here in MTL about 5-6 cm /2+ inches down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Thanks....Yes it is one of the craziest situations I've ever seen....I never envisioned the warm air Incursion; but the WF was a little further north than I had thought it would be....The inversion will keep temps above 0c tonight...until the CF moves through tomorrow. Interestingly, the 0z GFS seems to imply that a heavy band of precip moves through late tomorrow morning. By that time we may be cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Talk about busts who saw dawn temps near 50 in CNY today? Might as well get the dart board back ou to finish off the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Heavy snow in Orleans right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Heavy snow in Orleans right now! It didn't last. Rain and snow mix ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 i just couldnt believe it when i woke up this morning and saw that gatineau was still -3C and reporting snow while ottawa is +3. i thought for sure that the warm air would have easily pushed across the entire city by now and well past. it may have happened in the past in history, but i doubt more than a handful of times.....i know i cannot remember warm air being stationary over only half the city for what will be nearly 24 hours. its a terrible bust no doubt, but from a weather standpoint, it is truly amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 It didn't last. Rain and snow mix ATM. they are reporting snow and FRZRA now at gatineau and -2. still safely in the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Flash freeze warning in effect for Ottawa. All the way down to 0F tonight. Then, the torch commences. Up to 51F by Thirsday with rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 In a way, it's technically not a bust....LP did what LP wanted to do. For us its a best because we saw the models and forecasts. If we ignored the models and forecasts for the past week, we would be none the wiser, and weather would do whatever it pleases! Ignorance can be bliss! I say this only as a way to console myself...snowed in North Bay and Montreal and Gatineau and rained here...what sort of twisted joke is that?! Mercifully there is a deep enough snow pack that I am guessing it won't get dented too badly by the weekend. Here near Sandy Hill, it snowed and sleeted a bit last night, and today I am not sure...didn't look outside as it would only infuriate me On a side note, we have now had Freezing Rain Warnings, Winter Storm Watch, Winter Storm Warning, Wind Chill Warning and now a Flash Freeze Warning! I must add northern areas of Ottawa definitely had more snow than being reported by the airport. Apart from temperatures, I really don't care much about airport measurements....a single measurement at a single location can in no way be representative of a entire city, especially one the size of Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 In a way, it's technically not a bust....LP did what LP wanted to do. For us its a best because we saw the models and forecasts. If we ignored the models and forecasts for the past week, we would be none the wiser, and weather would do whatever it pleases! Ignorance can be bliss! I say this only as a way to console myself...snowed in North Bay and Montreal and Gatineau and rained here...what sort of twisted joke is that?! Mercifully there is a deep enough snow pack that I am guessing it won't get dented too badly by the weekend. Here near Sandy Hill, it snowed and sleeted a bit last night, and today I am not sure...didn't look outside as it would only infuriate me On a side note, we have now had Freezing Rain Warnings, Winter Storm Watch, Winter Storm Warning, Wind Chill Warning and now a Flash Freeze Warning! I must add northern areas of Ottawa definitely had more snow than being reported by the airport. Apart from temperatures, I really don't care much about airport measurements....a single measurement at a single location can in no way be representative of a entire city, especially one the size of Ottawa. yeah ottawa south defintely took the biggst hit here, whcih makes sense. i spoke to my folks in barrhaven this AM and nothing there but rain. i wonder how Clynog is doing out in Kanata?.....i imagine looking at radar yesterday, about the same as ottawa south. i would love to know where the dividing line was with this. crazy stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 yeah ottawa south defintely took the biggst hit here, whcih makes sense. i spoke to my folks in barrhaven this AM and nothing there but rain. i wonder how Clynog is doing out in Kanata?.....i imagine looking at radar yesterday, about the same as ottawa south. i would love to know where the dividing line was with this. crazy stuff! From what I can figure out we didn't seem to get any snow out of this...just rain....right now in the west end it is +2.2 c at my place in the west end...I don't think it has been below freezing since about 14h00 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 From what I can figure out we didn't seem to get any snow out of this...just rain....right now in the west end it is +2.2 c at my place in the west end...I don't think it has been below freezing since about 14h00 yesterday. ahhhh ok thats what i figured. amazing that i was thinkng 8 inchees of snow could fall on friday evening. sure i dropped it to 5-12cm, but i apologize for raising hopes. actually its a terrible forecast by me, certainly my worst. i remember a bust in december 2008, but in that case my forecast too low and the event overperformed.......everyone was happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scratch Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 It's a big time mess downtown.. Light rain falling, slush everywhere, and the snowpack, our beautiful snowpack is gonna take a very minor hit today, but by Friday with the torch and the rain, it's not gonna be pretty out there.. Cheers, Scratch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Still raining. Sigh. Already some patches of grass are beginning to show...but to be fair thats because the wind removed most of the snow from those areas. Some of the residential areas have pretty deep packs and huge snowbanks...I am assuming a "satisfactory" amount should survive by this weekend. Can't complain much though....our friends to the south are going to face the brunt of this torch. Days like this I like to remember 2007-2008. OL...your forecast still had a modicum of pessimism for things going pear-shaped, so not a bad forecast...plus, its the weather Lesson learnt...never get excited until after an event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 It got obscenely mild here - much more than ever predicted. It was in the upper 30s all night and peaked at 48 degrees. Snow is taking a hit, but the one inch of sleet that covered it a week ago is rather tough. The powder stuff that fell since then is obliterated. Still raining. Sigh. Already some patches of grass are beginning to show...but to be fair thats because the wind removed most of the snow from those areas. Some of the residential areas have pretty deep packs and huge snowbanks...I am assuming a "satisfactory" amount should survive by this weekend. Can't complain much though....our friends to the south are going to face the brunt of this torch. Days like this I like to remember 2007-2008. OL...your forecast still had a modicum of pessimism for things going pear-shaped, so not a bad forecast...plus, its the weather Lesson learnt...never get excited until after an event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 It's a big time mess downtown.. Light rain falling, slush everywhere, and the snowpack, our beautiful snowpack is gonna take a very minor hit today, but by Friday with the torch and the rain, it's not gonna be pretty out there.. Cheers, Scratch yes but at least we got about 3-4 inches of snow, at least we did here on the west end. ice pellets now at the airport, and the kitchen sink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 It got obscenely mild here - much more than ever predicted. It was in the upper 30s all night and peaked at 48 degrees. Snow is taking a hit, but the one inch of sleet that covered it a week ago is rather tough. The powder stuff that fell since then is obliterated. yep, warm air just went much more north then expected, as did the whole system. and 48 is obscene!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 the front has just gone through ottawa now and the winds have finally shifted to WNW but man, what a debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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