WNYLakeEffect Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 An inch last night and 2.5" yesterday. Buffalo has 2-4" for Monday night. 4.3" away from average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 well its a model bust within 48 hours for the NCEP/GEM for a simple event such as a clipper, but the euro appears had the right idea all along. goes to show you the danger of betting against the euro, even when its having a down year. some model runs have shown a robust event still for montreal and ottawa. case in point Env Canada's forecast of up to 8 inches in ottawa with their AM forecast. there are a lot of red flags for this event. the system will track over or north of us. the mid level features will all track north of us. with that comes the warm air. in fact some models turn many of us over to rain for the bulk of the precip. its a tricky forecast given that some models are still being very agressive with snowfall and others have us over to rain. the radar this morning is not impressive, with the arc of pre-frontal snow already passing north of ottawa, which is not good. i think that is a good hint that the system may pass even further north than what the models are indicating. i'm going to go with 2-5 inches (5-12cm) along the ottawa river east of shawville, that incldues ottawa and montreal and eastern ontario including cornwall-massena and S of montreal. S of a perth-smiths fall-presctott line, including kingston-brockville, and NNY communities, 1-2 inches (2-5cm) the heaviest snow which on friday night looked to affect the cities is now north. north of the ottawa river up through upper ottawa valley, and north of montreal island, 4-8 inches (10-20cm) with some locations in the laurentians and ski hills with localized amounts up to 10 inches (25cm). given the uncertaintly and lingering difference in the hi-res, my forecast is a low confidence forecast. there is a lingering chance for a heavy wet snow to take place overnight into tomorrow morning with greater accumlations in the cities. i will update if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 well its a model bust within 48 hours for the NCEP/GEM for a simple event such as a clipper, but the euro appears had the right idea all along. goes to show you the danger of betting against the euro, even when its having a down year. some model runs have shown a robust event still for montreal and ottawa. case in point Env Canada's forecast of up to 8 inches in ottawa with their AM forecast. there are a lot of red flags for this event. the system will track over or north of us. the mid level features will all track north of us. with that comes the warm air. in fact some models turn many of us over to rain for the bulk of the precip. its a tricky forecast given that some models are still being very agressive with snowfall and others have us over to rain. the radar this morning is not impressive, with the arc of pre-frontal snow already passing north of ottawa, which is not good. i think that is a good hint that the system may pass even further north than what the models are indicating. i'm going to go with 2-5 inches (5-12cm) along the ottawa river east of shawville, that incldues ottawa and montreal and eastern ontario including cornwall-massena and S of montreal. the heaviest snow which on friday night looked to affect the cities is now north. north of the ottawa river up through upper ottawa valley, and north of montreal island, 4-8 inches (10-20cm) with some locations in the laurentians and ski hills with localized amounts up to 10 inches (25cm). given the uncertaintly and lingering difference in the hi-res, my forecast is a low confidence forecast. there is a lingering chance for a heavy wet snow to take place overnight into tomorrow morning with greater accumlations in the cities. i will update if necessary. Your forecast looks very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Your forecast looks very good. thanks TG i see you had similar accums for ottawa its unfortuante if it works out, this could have been a good system for them, but they havent had any luck in ottawa for a while now. i see Env Canada is sticking with its heavy wet snowfall overnight with about 6-7 inches total in ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 thanks TG i see you had similar accums for ottawa its unfortuante if it works out, this could have been a good system for them, but they havent had any luck in ottawa for a while now. i see Env Canada is sticking with its heavy wet snowfall overnight with about 6-7 inches total in ottawa. The Weather Network's forecast for us looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 The Weather Network's forecast for us looks good. whats their call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 thanks TG i see you had similar accums for ottawa its unfortuante if it works out, this could have been a good system for them, but they havent had any luck in ottawa for a while now. i see Env Canada is sticking with its heavy wet snowfall overnight with about 6-7 inches total in ottawa. No they haven't....Ottawa is over-do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 whats their call? 15-20 CM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 interesting to see the precip 'hook around' ottawa and is now screaming into montreal from a NW to SE direction. it should start snowing here shortly while ottawa remains dry for the time being. http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=XFT some of the hi-res models were implying this with this first batch with more accums in montreal. its been a tough weekend for ottawa yet again in the snow department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 closer look at the NAM shows the qpf depcited nicely. i think montreal will make a run at higher end of my accums while ottawa will be hardpressed to make the lower range. if you are north or east of ottawa by any distance, the better. we are talking about 15 or 20 miles will make all the difference. ottawa airport in the SW part of the city, may not see any snow of real importance until much later today, later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I wouldn't expect too much from this at all. It's already up to -1C at my place. We'll be hard presed to get an inch out of this I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I wouldn't expect too much from this at all. It's already up to -1C at my place. We'll be hard presed to get an inch out of this I think. well the temps are going to hover close to freezing.....the models that were showing decent precip into ottawa overnight would overcome the borderline temps and result in a heavy wet snow dump.....if its light precip, it wont amount to anything more than an inch or 2. some precip is breaking out to the west of ottawa now. ill stick with a call of 5-12cm for now. snow is increasing in intensity here in montreal now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 based on latest on radar and surface i think we are going to do quite well here i MTL..... i think 6 inches / 15cm is attainable....sections just to the north of the island should indeed approach 10 inches locally in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 check out the contrast between ottawa airport and gatinuea airport 25km to the NW gatinuea -5C with ENE wind and steady snow, radar shows that nicely ottawa -2C with a S wind and nothing going on always a tough call when a city is divided radar tells the story (time-sensitive) http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=XFT it must be snowing at Subzero's house and across from downtown, while others a few km away are seeig nothing. its trying to push south but that S wind is not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 ottawa up to +0.2C while gatinuea at -5.2C with snow pretty unreal conditions right now to have the north and south sections of the city so contrasted. i cant recall a single occasion where we are seeing such a difference......certainly not with a clipper! EDIT environment canada going all-out, calling for 5-8 inches in ottawa. it *could* happen with a heavy wet snow dump but its going to be by a razors edge, literally.......i hope i am wrong for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 ottawa up to +0.2C while gatinuea at -5.2C with snow pretty unreal conditions right now to have the north and south sections of the city so contrasted. i cant recall a single occasion where we are seeing such a difference......certainly not with a clipper! EDIT environment canada going all-out, calling for 5-8 inches in ottawa. it *could* happen with a heavy wet snow dump but its going to be by a razors edge, literally.......i hope i am wrong for sure! I'm at -0.8C with steady snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I'm at -0.8C with steady snow falling. nice! keep me posted and keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 1/2 mile visibility here -3C its going to be a snowy night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 check out the contrast between ottawa airport and gatinuea airport 25km to the NW gatinuea -5C with ENE wind and steady snow, radar shows that nicely ottawa -2C with a S wind and nothing going on always a tough call when a city is divided radar tells the story (time-sensitive) http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=XFT it must be snowing at Subzero's house and across from downtown, while others a few km away are seeig nothing. its trying to push south but that S wind is not helping. -4c and snowing steady here...moderate snowfall. Pretty incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 -4c and snowing steady here...moderate snowfall. Pretty incredible! just spoke with my parents and there is nothing going on in barrhaven.....nada. going to be one of those cases where ottawa airport comes in lower but this time it will make sense the radar looks terrible for southern and western seciton of the city, everything is just 'hooking' around them and the crazy part is that some of the short-term hi-res models say this is going to continue right through tomorrow morning hopefully that doesnt happen and it sinks south as the winds calm later this evening.....this must be by a difference of 7 or 8 queensway exits lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 just spoke with my parents and there is nothing going on in barrhaven.....nada. going to be one of those cases where ottawa airport comes in lower but this time it will make sense the radar looks terrible for southern and western seciton of the city, everything is just 'hooking' around them and the crazy part is that some of the short-term hi-res models say this is going to continue right through tomorrow morning hopefully that doesnt happen and it sinks south as the winds calm later this evening.....this must be by a difference of 7 or 8 queensway exits lol that is pretty wild. I'm not far from St. paul University and its snowing quite steadily here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 well its a model bust within 48 hours for the NCEP/GEM for a simple event such as a clipper, but the euro appears had the right idea all along. goes to show you the danger of betting against the euro, even when its having a down year. some model runs have shown a robust event still for montreal and ottawa. case in point Env Canada's forecast of up to 8 inches in ottawa with their AM forecast. there are a lot of red flags for this event. the system will track over or north of us. the mid level features will all track north of us. with that comes the warm air. in fact some models turn many of us over to rain for the bulk of the precip. its a tricky forecast given that some models are still being very agressive with snowfall and others have us over to rain. the radar this morning is not impressive, with the arc of pre-frontal snow already passing north of ottawa, which is not good. i think that is a good hint that the system may pass even further north than what the models are indicating. i'm going to go with 2-5 inches (5-12cm) along the ottawa river east of shawville, that incldues ottawa and montreal and eastern ontario including cornwall-massena and S of montreal. S of a perth-smiths fall-presctott line, including kingston-brockville, and NNY communities, 1-2 inches (2-5cm) the heaviest snow which on friday night looked to affect the cities is now north. north of the ottawa river up through upper ottawa valley, and north of montreal island, 4-8 inches (10-20cm) with some locations in the laurentians and ski hills with localized amounts up to 10 inches (25cm). given the uncertaintly and lingering difference in the hi-res, my forecast is a low confidence forecast. there is a lingering chance for a heavy wet snow to take place overnight into tomorrow morning with greater accumlations in the cities. i will update if necessary. env Canada has smartly decreased accums in ottawa. based on everything that has happened today and current trends im going to keep my forecast the same except to increase the montreal island to 3.5-7 inches /9-17cm from the previous 5-12cm. i will keep the same ottawa river east of shawville down the river, through ottawa and into KMSS and south of montreal isalnd......2-5 inches (5-12cm).....in ottawa, the highest totals will be in northern and eastern sections of the city. while southern and western sections will be towards the lower end, and its conceivable that CYOW will struggle to reach 2 inches/ 5cm. north of montreal island and north of the ottawa river by about 25 km and points norrtward, with a pocket extending downards towards just north of hawkesbury, will be band of heaviest snow, from 5-8 inches (12-20cm) with localized accums to 10 inches / 25cm in the laurentians and ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 wow ottawa has surged up to +2.5 while gatineau is -4.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 wow ottawa has surged up to +2.5 while gatineau is -4.3 still -0.9C at my place and I'm not that far from the airport. Snow has stopped falling though. When do you expect the heaviest snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I think this going to be a huge bust for both EC and TWN. Temperature steady at -1C overnight? It's already 3C at the airport and my place has risen to -0.2C! At the rat we're going, this will be rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 temperature now approaching the freezing point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 my apologies to TWN. They have updated. Instead of snow, they are now calling for mixed precip, about an inch in total for the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 still -0.9C at my place and I'm not that far from the airport. Snow has stopped falling though. When do you expect the heaviest snow? truly amazing, the airport is reporting +3.1 C now good to hear you are still hanging below 0 the heaviest snow *would* have been overnight and into the AM tomorrow but with the warm air surging north, im not so sure. in fact, im starting to lean towards not being any snow of significance in the ottawa area. all the signs are on the wall for a major FAIL event in ottawa, even possibly to the east and north of ottawa. until REAL precip arrives in the city, and we can follow the temp trend under precip to see if it cools off, its impossible to say for sure now if there will be any snow of significance. on top of that, im not even convinced any real precip will affect the city....as i mentioned earler some of the hi res models were hooking the precip around the city, and with the surge of warm air, its doable.....i dare say likely. here in MTL, we are dropping temp, now down to -6C with steady snow probably about 3-4cm, its a real snow event here, the real deal. meanwhile, you cant buy one in ottawa for 2 years. the funny thing is the models were really hitting ottawa hard just 36 hours ago and montreal looked not as good, if you recall i pinned the ottawa area as a place that could see 8 inches of snow for the whole weekend. well in a couple hours, we will be up to nearly 4 inches of snow since the weekend began (4cm yesterday) here in MTL while ottawa airport will have basically had nothing. everything shifted north and east, by quite a bit. terrible bust at such a short lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 is it snowing where you are Ottawa Blizzard? its raining at the ottawa airport and snowing at gatineau airport, i wonder where the transition zone is?? baseline road?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 is it snowing where you are Ottawa Blizzard? its raining at the ottawa airport and snowing at gatineau airport, i wonder where the transition zone is?? baseline road?? lol No, it is raining/wet snowing. Sleet I suppose. Temperature up to 0.7C at my place. I can't imagine the temperature will go down until tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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