Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It must have been rough, particularly given it happened two years in a row (1990 and 1991). In 1984 they apparently had to close the canal for the season as early as February 13th, which is pretty ironic given March 1984 was one of the coldest ever recorded in this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Squall line just went through here. Visibility was down to less than 100 yards for about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It's like a one day thaw in Ottawa from what I can see. By Saturday morning it is back below freezing for all of next weekend..... id expect at minimum a couple days of above freezing and the risk of one day being very warm with rain. it could get worse than that too, or perhaps slightly better....but that pattern is reliant on a backdoor cold front, amidst rising heights....doesnt sound promising IMO. i think the models arent yet showing the true potential of the torch. i expect it to be worse that what they are showing right now, perhaps quite a bit worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 one thing id like to mention is that not a single run of the euro all week has brought the amount of qpf to the region that the NCEP/GEM models have brought. the euro at 12z remains very dry and also shifts further north. the euro has never modeled any sort of event that would have brough >4 inches of snow anywhere in our region, at any time, while the NCEPs had run close to an inch of qpf at times with >8 inches max snowfall. the SREFs havent been too bullish either. its make or break time, id expect one set of models to blink tonight at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 id expect at minimum a couple days of above freezing and the risk of one day being very warm with rain. it could get worse than that too, or perhaps slightly better....but that pattern is reliant on a backdoor cold front, amidst rising heights....doesnt sound promising IMO. i think the models arent yet showing the true potential of the torch. i expect it to be worse that what they are showing right now, perhaps quite a bit worse. I agree completely. Joe Bastradi showed a map on one of his videos yesterday which showed our region in the red zone in terms of temperatures by late next week. He's callin it one of the biggest turn arounds in recent years and he may be right, judging on what's hppening in the midwest, upper plains right now. Having said this, it is looking increasingly likely that winter comes back after the 20th and bear in mind what I posted yesterday about big storms a few days following the return of cold. 1983-84 was a La Nina winter I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 one thing id like to mention is that not a single run of the euro all week has brought the amount of qpf to the region that the NCEP/GEM models have brought. the euro at 12z remains very dry and also shifts further north. the euro has never modeled any sort of event that would have brough >4 inches of snow anywhere, at any time, while the NCEPs had run close to an inch of qpf at times with >8 inches max snowfall. the SREFs havent been too bullish either. its make or break time, id expect one set of models to blink tonight at 00z. the models have been overdoing precip amounts all winter. Look at what happned in Toronto on the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Interesting day here in WNY. The day started with 2-3 hours of heavy snow, accumulating 3-4 inches by 9:30 am. Sun came out around noon and we've had mostly bright blue skies all afternoon. The sun actually feels nice and warm when the breeze calms down. A taste of winter and spring on the same day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It has just started snowing here. It is snowing pretty decent too. The wind and snow picked up rather quickly. It was sunny, then cloudy for about 2 minutes then the snow and wind just came in together and it has been pretty heavy since. I doubt it will last for very long but it has been fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Just ran latest 19Z Smartmodel run, looking over the snowfall potential for upstate NY area, still seeing general 3-5" across the areas, Buffalo and Syracuse especially getting pinged for the higher values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Just ran latest 19Z Smartmodel run, looking over the snowfall potential for upstate NY area, still seeing general 3-5" across the areas, Buffalo and Syracuse especially getting pinged for the higher values. does your Smartmodel have maps or qpf output maps that you can post here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It has just started snowing here. It is snowing pretty decent too. The wind and snow picked up rather quickly. It was sunny, then cloudy for about 2 minutes then the snow and wind just came in together and it has been pretty heavy since. I doubt it will last for very long but it has been fun to watch. Picked up about a quick inch in that intense squall line. Couldn't see the end of my driveway for awhile............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 does your Smartmodel have maps or qpf output maps that you can post here? Unfortunately I dont, all I have is the text output for potential snowfall on the Smart Snowfall/Ice Forecast link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Picked up 1/2" from the squall line, just started getting some lake effect flurries.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I dunno where those squalls came from, but they were fantastic. It was brief, but the heaviest snow I have seen all winter...as in maybe 300 feet visibility white out. So about an inch or a bit more fell. It had been pushing 32, but it fell back to 24 after the squalls. Picked up 1/2" from the squall line, just started getting some lake effect flurries.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I dunno where those squalls came from, but they were fantastic. It was brief, but the heaviest snow I have seen all winter...as in maybe 300 feet visibility white out. So about an inch or a bit more fell. It had been pushing 32, but it fell back to 24 after the squalls. cold front associated with a PV low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I picked up 4 - 4.5 inches of snow today....Winds are really whipping the snow around; visibility is next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I picked up 4 - 4.5 inches of snow today....Winds are really whipping the snow around; visibility is next to nothing. picked up 3 inches here,nws was only calling for a dusting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Just out of dumb curiosity, has there ever been a good to moderate accumulation of snow here from lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 picked up 3 inches here,nws was only calling for a dusting lol Now we will have to see how much snow we get tomorrow. I think tomorrows clipper will drop just about the same amount todays did....But I think the LES on the Tug will be better tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 The snow has really picked up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Just out of dumb curiosity, has there ever been a good to moderate accumulation of snow here from lake effect? Misread question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Out here west of Schenectady my record daily LES total is about 5 inches. Chump change to SYR or TG, but the lake snow belt of the Capital District I guess. I guess it may be tougher in the Upper HV east of the Dacks. Just out of dumb curiosity, has there ever been a good to moderate accumulation of snow here from lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 EC updated their forecast to call for snow tomorrow night as opposed to wet snow. The Weather Network is only calling for a couple of inches though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 This looks like a nice clipper for Tremblant... Somebody will benefit anyway. Ottawa gets some on the front and the back probably still a nice event. EC updated their forecast to call for snow tomorrow night as opposed to wet snow. The Weather Network is only calling for a couple of inches though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Northern Oneida and extreme Southern Lewis Counties are getting a little bit of LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Looks like the Tug will see 3-5 from tomorrows clipper and LES behind it....everyone else 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Looks like the Tug will see 3-5 from tomorrows clipper and LES behind it....everyone else 1-3. what do you think Ottawa will see? 4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 what do you think Ottawa will see? 4"? it looks like 1" through tomorrow afternoon; with 2"- 3" and maybe a little ZR tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Picked up 1.5" total today, 63" on the yr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Just pushed out 05Z SmartModel data. Still looking at Ft. Drum and Massena 4-5" of snow for the later on Sunday. Looking at 2-3" more snow for Buffalo/Syracuse area tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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