Feb 12-15 Upstate NY / North Country LES / Clipper Impacts

[Organizing Low]

the models are really all over the place with the clipper, in terms of how many pieces it comes out in, and where it passe, and who gets the most qpf

ECM has favored lake ontario region in NYS, GFS has favored ottawa valley

NAM is trying to go north of there even.

GEM is lake ontario region in ontario

nothing solved here.

[wolfie09]

HPC

...LOW PRES SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN GT LAKES INTO THE NE LATE DAY

2 INTO DAY 3...

PREFERENCE: GFS/CAN GLOBAL

WITH THE NAM CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH S/WV MOVING INTO THE

WEST COAST DAY 1...ITS EFFECTS DOWNSTREAM BECOME A MUCH

SLOWER..DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTH EVOLUTION OF SFC LOW DVLPG AND

TRACKING EWD ACRS SCNTL CANADA DAY 2 AND INTO NE U.S. DAY 3.

THOUGH NOT AS SLOW OR A FAR NORTH AS THE NAM..THE GFS HAS ALSO

TRENDED SLOWER/DEEPER COMPARED TO 06Z RUN WITH WAVE MOVING ACRS

SRN CANADA TOWARD NE U.S. NAM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST EXTREME SOLN

GIVEN THAT IT IS SO MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN BOTH 00Z GEFS MEAN

AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A GOOD

COMPROMISE BETWEEN FAST 00Z ECMWF MEANS AND 12Z NAM AT THIS TIME

AND HAS FAIR SUPPORT FROM 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL

[wolfie09]

18z nam round 1 and round 2

[ayuud]

gratz ottawa

[Organizing Low]

well its hard to get too excited about the upcoming snowy weekend in the north country knowing that a potentially devestating thaw is around the corner.....but as the thaw beings to spread over much of the rest of the habitable continent, we are indeed in line for snow.

3 systems will affect the area, each progressively stronger

1. a PV impulse tonight into first half of tomorrow......around 0.5-1 inch (1-3cm)....max potential 2 inches which despite the models not showing that, i could see happening

2. a break tomorrow afternoon then a Pac jet impulse tomorrow night and first half of sunday......1-3 inches (3-7cm) likely.....max potential 4 inches is most unlikely, though cannot be ruled out if this lead pac impulse is a bit stronger with WAA.

3. possible short break on sunday before a potent clipper crosses the region sunday night into monday.....3-6inches (7-15cm) likely .....max potential 8 inches in the ottawa valley and north of the ottawa river......8 inches would be a pretty unheard of total for a clipper, but again models are hinting at the potential for a super clipper. there would be a warm punch with this clipper but at this time it appears to be limited to the lake ontario plain and points S and W, where rain may mix in, limiting accumlations.

therefore, TOTAL accumlations of generally 4-10 inches (10-25cm) of snow are expected from tonight through monday, across eastern ontario/Sw quebec and the international border region, with the potential for up to locally 12 inches (30cm) in some sections of the ottawa valley if the snow Gods are smiling.

behind the clipper we will get a shot of CAA which sets the stage for a potential torch, the severity of which is unknown at this time.

[Sub_Zero]

well its hard to get too excited about the upcoming snowy weekend in the north country knowing that a potentially devestating thaw is around the corner.....but as the thaw beings to spread over much of the rest of the habitable continent, we are indeed in line for snow.

3 systems will affect the area, each progressively stronger

1. a PV impulse tonight into first half of tomorrow......around 0.5-1 inch (1-3cm)....max potential 2 inches which despite the models not showing that, i could see happening

2. a break tomorrow afternoon then a Pac jet impulse tomorrow night and first half of sunday......1-3 inches (3-7cm) likely.....max potential 4 inches is most unlikely, though cannot be ruled out if this lead pac impulse is a bit stronger with WAA.

3. possible short break on sunday before a potent clipper crosses the region sunday night into monday.....3-6inches (7-15cm) likely .....max potential 8 inches in the ottawa valley and north of the ottawa river......8 inches would be a pretty unheard of total for a clipper, but again models are hinting at the potential for a super clipper. there would be a warm punch with this clipper but at this time it appears to be limited to the lake ontario plain and points S and E, where rain may mix in, limiting accumlations.

therefore, TOTAL accumlations of generally 4-10 inches (10-25cm) of snow are expected from tonight through monday, across eastern ontario/Sw quebec and the international border region, with the potential for up to locally 12 inches (30cm) in some sections of the ottawa valley if the snow Gods are smiling.

behind the clipper we will get a shot of CAA which sets the stage for a potential torch, the severity of which is unknown at this time.

Thanks for the awesome writeup OL. If this big warmup does indeed happen, is it the begining of the end, or will ol' man winter make a late return?

[Proof Sheet]

well its hard to get too excited about the upcoming snowy weekend in the north country knowing that a potentially devestating thaw is around the corner.....but as the thaw beings to spread over much of the rest of the habitable continent, we are indeed in line for snow.

3 systems will affect the area, each progressively stronger

1. a PV impulse tonight into first half of tomorrow......around 0.5-1 inch (1-3cm)....max potential 2 inches which despite the models not showing that, i could see happening

2. a break tomorrow afternoon then a Pac jet impulse tomorrow night and first half of sunday......1-3 inches (3-7cm) likely.....max potential 4 inches is most unlikely, though cannot be ruled out if this lead pac impulse is a bit stronger with WAA.

3. possible short break on sunday before a potent clipper crosses the region sunday night into monday.....3-6inches (7-15cm) likely .....max potential 8 inches in the ottawa valley and north of the ottawa river......8 inches would be a pretty unheard of total for a clipper, but again models are hinting at the potential for a super clipper. there would be a warm punch with this clipper but at this time it appears to be limited to the lake ontario plain and points S and E, where rain may mix in, limiting accumlations.

therefore, TOTAL accumlations of generally 4-10 inches (10-25cm) of snow are expected from tonight through monday, across eastern ontario/Sw quebec and the international border region, with the potential for up to locally 12 inches (30cm) in some sections of the ottawa valley if the snow Gods are smiling.

behind the clipper we will get a shot of CAA which sets the stage for a potential torch, the severity of which is unknown at this time.

Great post.....I'm about 15 km NW of CYOW...I gather from your post that I could be in for 20+ cm of snow between now and Monday...although TWN and EC don't seem to be indicating this......

Sorry...what is CAA? (I realize it is not an automobile organization)...how warm do you think it will get in Ottawa after that...is it likely to be warm and dry or the dreaded warm and wet?

Love your pin point forecasts...I remember you did them a year or so ago with accuracy down to areas of Ottawa or even what the difference would be in temps or accumulations between Canton/Potsdam/Massena.....

[Organizing Low]

Thanks for the awesome writeup OL. If this big warmup does indeed happen, is it the begining of the end, or will ol' man winter make a late return?

no he should return.....

its kinda unclear what type of pattern setsup, but it will probably be active with a typical Nina and SE ridge ......whether it means lots of snow or lots of slop remains to be seen.

[Organizing Low]

Great post.....I'm about 15 km NW of CYOW...I gather from your post that I could be in for 20+ cm of snow between now and Monday...although TWN and EC don't seem to be indicating this......

Sorry...what is CAA? (I realize it is not an automobile organization)...how warm do you think it will get in Ottawa after that...is it likely to be warm and dry or the dreaded warm and wet?

Love your pin point forecasts...I remember you did them a year or so ago with accuracy down to areas of Ottawa or even what the difference would be in temps or accumulations between Canton/Potsdam/Massena.....

haha yeah i remember you Clynog, i thought we had lost you along the way! good to see you! i see you changed your name to try and fool everyone haha.

CAA is cold air advection (as well as the auto club).

i havent been as localized with my forecasts this yr, just not enough time and frankly no storms warranting that much detail.

as for the snowfall, yeah thats why i went with the range 10-25cm........because we have 3 systems over 4 days so by the time we get to day 3-4, track of the clipper which will deliver the brunt of the snow could be different enough so that totals could be anywhere in that range.

i just figured id put out a forecast since we will have episodes of snow much of the weekend and it will start accumlating tonight.

as of right now yeah, 8 inches total is a defintely possibility anywhere along the ottawa river from pettawawa to hawkesbury (although with settling and some melting between episodes, it may not quite look like that).....id go with a general range in that area from 6-8 right now, but as i said, if the tracks change, it could be as little as 4 or as much as 10 or 12 even. this is total through monday evening.

as for the warmup, it could be one day of warmth or it could be a quite bad meltoff for a few days. it doesnt look to be TOO warm and wet at this time, but the details of it wont really be known i think until monday afternoon or so.

[Proof Sheet]

haha yeah i remember you Clynog, i thought we had lost you along the way! good to see you! i see you changed your name to try and fool everyone haha.

CAA is cold air advection (as well as the auto club).

as of right now yeah, 8 inches total is a defintely possibility anywhere along the ottawa river from pettawawa to hawkesbury (although with settling and some melting between episodes, it may not quite look like that).....id go with a general range in that area from 6-8 right now, but as i said, if the tracks change, it could be as little as 4 or as much as 10 or 12 even. this is total through monday evening.

as for the warmup, it could be one day of warmth or it could be a quite bad meltoff for a few days. it doesnt look to be TOO warm and wet at this time, but the details of it wont really be known i think until monday afternoon or so.

Thanks for the reply...yep, I changed names once easternwx was no longer. Is the reference to inches for our American friends....I honestly can't think in inches anymore for snowfall or fahrenheit for temps....just my height and weight...but food I think in grams and ml

It appears to be a long drawn out affair without any prolonged heavy periods...just slow and steady. The EC radar is showing snow between Kingston and Ottawa moving to the NE...let the snow begin.

I now know what CAA is and I can figure out WAA

[Organizing Low]

Thanks for the reply...yep, I changed names once easternwx was no longer. Is the reference to inches for our American friends....I honestly can't think in inches anymore for snowfall or fahrenheit for temps....just my height and weight...but food I think in grams and ml

It appears to be a long drawn out affair without any prolonged heavy periods...just slow and steady. The EC radar is showing snow between Kingston and Ottawa moving to the NE...let the snow begin.

I now know what CAA is and I can figure out WAA

there could be a period of heavy snow with the 3rd event, on or around monday morning. still a bit too far out to say exactly where that setsup.

[ksstormhunter]

Just looking at the new data from the SmartModel for snowfall potential NW New York, seeing potential to see close to 10" around Ft. Drum and Massena areas. Just pushed out some model data and Snowfall forecasts for that area.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

haha yeah i remember you Clynog, i thought we had lost you along the way! good to see you! i see you changed your name to try and fool everyone haha.

CAA is cold air advection (as well as the auto club).

i havent been as localized with my forecasts this yr, just not enough time and frankly no storms warranting that much detail.

as for the snowfall, yeah thats why i went with the range 10-25cm........because we have 3 systems over 4 days so by the time we get to day 3-4, track of the clipper which will deliver the brunt of the snow could be different enough so that totals could be anywhere in that range.

i just figured id put out a forecast since we will have episodes of snow much of the weekend and it will start accumlating tonight.

as of right now yeah, 8 inches total is a defintely possibility anywhere along the ottawa river from pettawawa to hawkesbury (although with settling and some melting between episodes, it may not quite look like that).....id go with a general range in that area from 6-8 right now, but as i said, if the tracks change, it could be as little as 4 or as much as 10 or 12 even. this is total through monday evening.

as for the warmup, it could be one day of warmth or it could be a quite bad meltoff for a few days. it doesnt look to be TOO warm and wet at this time, but the details of it wont really be known i think until monday afternoon or so.

It doesn't look like it will get too warm next week, maybe up into the upper 30s. The models seem to have been hinting at freezing rain for late next week.

[Organizing Low]

It doesn't look like it will get too warm next week, maybe up into the upper 30s. The models seem to have been hinting at freezing rain for late next week.

i think its too early to say.

if something like the 12z euro verifies, we will lose most of the snowpack.

we could squeze by, or it could get real ugly.

given that torches always seem to overperform, im not particularly optimistic at this time....but as i said we will know more in a couple days.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

i think its too early to say.

if something like the 12z euro verifies, we will lose most of the snowpack.

we could squeze by, or it could get real ugly.

given that torches always seem to overperform, im not particularly optimistic at this time....but as i said we will know more in a couple days.

I guess we should just really enjoy the snow over the next few days.

0z GFS shows a full blown torch. Leaves may start to bloom. I remember the torch of January 1995 when leaves actually were starting to bloom in Toronto!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

i think its too early to say.

if something like the 12z euro verifies, we will lose most of the snowpack.

we could squeze by, or it could get real ugly.

given that torches always seem to overperform, im not particularly optimistic at this time....but as i said we will know more in a couple days.

However, it should be noted OL that some of our biggest ever storms have come a few days after a torch has concluded. I'm not sure if you're old enough to remember February 28,29,1984 (I'm not!) but Ottawa received 36cm (almost as much as Dec.16,2007) after one of the biggest February blowtorches ever.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=XX&StationID=4337&Year=1984&Month=2&Day=10

By the way, take a close look at that month. Look how warm it got and how the snowpack managed to maintain itself.

Another example is February 23-24 1994:

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?Prov=XX&timeframe=2&StationID=4337&Day=1&Month=2&Year=1994&cmdB1=Go

Again, amazing how the snowpack managed to maintain itself.

Finally, there's February 22-23,2003:

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?Prov=XX&timeframe=2&StationID=4337&Day=1&Month=2&Year=2003&cmdB1=Go

Once again, note the torch just before the big storm. It's as if the cold air moves back in, meets up with the warm air, which in turns creates a storm in the Great Plains which moves towards the Great Lakes.

[wolfie09]

1st event for KALB CWA

[CNYWxGuy]

0z Canadian is a definate outlier, atleast QPF wise. The 72-hour is just a bit on the extreme side...

[Organizing Low]

However, it should be noted OL that some of our biggest ever storms have come a few days after a torch has concluded. I'm not sure if you're old enough to remember February 28,29,1984 (I'm not!) but Ottawa received 36cm (almost as much as Dec.16,2007) after one of the biggest February blowtorches ever.

http://www.climate.w...&Month=2&Day=10

By the way, take a close look at that month. Look how warm it got and how the snowpack managed to maintain itself.

Another example is February 23-24 1994:

http://www.climate.w...r=1994&cmdB1=Go

Again, amazing how the snowpack managed to maintain itself.

Finally, there's February 22-23,2003:

http://www.climate.w...r=2003&cmdB1=Go

Once again, note the torch just before the big storm. It's as if the cold air moves back in, meets up with the warm air, which in turns creates a storm in the Great Plains which moves towards the Great Lakes.

hey OB

great post

i wasnt old enough to remember 1984 either, but it is amazing how that managed to keep snow on the ground with such a long torch and a big rain event in the middle of the torch!

usually its rain event and then cool down, so thats pretty incredible.

interesting that the models have also on and off hinted at the potential for a storm following the torch.

i dont want to derail this thread from the clipper, so ill post about the torch in the main thread.

[Organizing Low]

well its hard to get too excited about the upcoming snowy weekend in the north country knowing that a potentially devestating thaw is around the corner.....but as the thaw beings to spread over much of the rest of the habitable continent, we are indeed in line for snow.

3 systems will affect the area, each progressively stronger

1. a PV impulse tonight into first half of tomorrow......around 0.5-1 inch (1-3cm)....max potential 2 inches which despite the models not showing that, i could see happening

2. a break tomorrow afternoon then a Pac jet impulse tomorrow night and first half of sunday......1-3 inches (3-7cm) likely.....max potential 4 inches is most unlikely, though cannot be ruled out if this lead pac impulse is a bit stronger with WAA.

3. possible short break on sunday before a potent clipper crosses the region sunday night into monday.....3-6inches (7-15cm) likely .....max potential 8 inches in the ottawa valley and north of the ottawa river......8 inches would be a pretty unheard of total for a clipper, but again models are hinting at the potential for a super clipper. there would be a warm punch with this clipper but at this time it appears to be limited to the lake ontario plain and points S and W, where rain may mix in, limiting accumlations.

therefore, TOTAL accumlations of generally 4-10 inches (10-25cm) of snow are expected from tonight through monday, across eastern ontario/Sw quebec and the international border region, with the potential for up to locally 12 inches (30cm) in some sections of the ottawa valley if the snow Gods are smiling.

behind the clipper we will get a shot of CAA which sets the stage for a potential torch, the severity of which is unknown at this time.

we are getting a decent snow the last few hours here in MTL, we have about 3 cm now and should pick up a bit more.

looking at obs, here are the totals from the minor first event

ottawa 1cm

montreal 3-4cm

kingston 2cm

pembroke 2cm

so pretty much as advertised.

the second event expected to begin tonight has really washed out on the models.....its just becoming more of a lead-in snow for the clipper now....as in periods of snow tomorrow which intensify at night into monday as the clipper crosses the area.

overall, 4-10 inches of snow is still expected across the region by the time snow ends on monday, ......my one concern after viewing the overnight models is that the clipper cotinues to trend stronger, and that could push a wedge of wamth and the best snows a bit further north.

will post more tonight after the model runs, narrow the ranges a bit by location.

[Organizing Low]

well the 12z NCEP runs and RGEM couldnt have been worse

shift the heaviest snow north of ottawa and montreal with the clipper as the clipper passes north of the area...as well as introducing warmer air and increased risk of mixing.

the further north track also lessens the CAA behind the clipper in our area, which helps to torch the region later in the week

amazing is that they models have been consistent on the track south of us for the past 7 days, only to shift now the day before.

we need a slight shift back in the next set of runs to be comfortable.

[CNYWxGuy]

Pretty good snows E of L.O attm...

[BuffaloWeather]

Surprise 4-5 inches of snow here In Buffalo since last night.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

well the 12z NCEP runs and RGEM couldnt have been worse

shift the heaviest snow north of ottawa and montreal with the clipper as the clipper passes north of the area...as well as introducing warmer air and increased risk of mixing.

the further north track also lessens the CAA behind the clipper in our area, which helps to torch the region later in the week

amazing is that they models have been consistent on the track south of us for the past 7 days, only to shift now the day before.

we need a slight shift back in the next set of runs to be comfortable.

Yeah, looks like we'll be lucky to get 4" in total over the next few days.

Full blown torch to follow on Thursday, which, if dew points are high enough, should melt away most of the snowpack.

I wouldn't be too happy if I were a Winterlude organizer, or someone planning on coming to Ottawa from out of town for the festival, as it looks like the canal could be shut down next weekend. Having said this, it isn't unheard of. February 1991 apparently saw springlike conditions for Winterlude, as did February 1990 and February 1984.

[Organizing Low]

Yeah, looks like we'll be lucky to get 4" in total over the next few days.

Full blown torch to follow on Thursday, which, if dew points are high enough, should melt away most of the snowpack.

I wouldn't be too happy if I were a Winterlude organizer, or someone planning on coming to Ottawa from out of town for the festival, as it looks like the canal could be shut down next weekend. Having said this, it isn't unheard of. February 1991 apparently saw springlike conditions for Winterlude, as did February 1990 and February 1984.

yes i recall those yrs when the Canal has had to have been shutdown in the early 90s.....NOT a pretty sight for the city of ottawa.

considering the latest trends, lucky to get 4 inches is the right word to use at this time.

at the same time, more than that could still fall if we are even just a bit luckier.

the energy will be coming onshore this evening.....so the 00z models may shift back a bit, we'll see.

[Avid6eek]

Rather boring week in weather for those not on the Tug. I'm actually looking forward to a couple days in the 40's next week. By the time the thaw gets here, if there is no end in sight on the models, lets get spring started!

[Logan11]

I figured if it shifted - it would be north. But I didn't think it would go so far as to take Ottawa and Montreal out of the good snows.

Remember last weeks event here where we were north of the best snow for run after run ..only to have them shift way north and hit northern NY in the last several runs.

It does look like we get a decent shot of arctic air now behind it.... until the seemingly inevitable two day thaw later in the week.

well the 12z NCEP runs and RGEM couldnt have been worse

shift the heaviest snow north of ottawa and montreal with the clipper as the clipper passes north of the area...as well as introducing warmer air and increased risk of mixing.

the further north track also lessens the CAA behind the clipper in our area, which helps to torch the region later in the week

amazing is that they models have been consistent on the track south of us for the past 7 days, only to shift now the day before.

we need a slight shift back in the next set of runs to be comfortable.

[Logan11]

It's like a one day thaw in Ottawa from what I can see. By Saturday morning it is back below freezing for all of next weekend.....

Yeah, looks like we'll be lucky to get 4" in total over the next few days.

Full blown torch to follow on Thursday, which, if dew points are high enough, should melt away most of the snowpack.

I wouldn't be too happy if I were a Winterlude organizer, or someone planning on coming to Ottawa from out of town for the festival, as it looks like the canal could be shut down next weekend. Having said this, it isn't unheard of. February 1991 apparently saw springlike conditions for Winterlude, as did February 1990 and February 1984.

[Tornado Girl]

I've picked up close to 3.5 inches so far today

[Ottawa Blizzard]

yes i recall those yrs when the Canal has had to have been shutdown in the early 90s.....NOT a pretty sight for the city of ottawa.

considering the latest trends, lucky to get 4 inches is the right word to use at this time.

at the same time, more than that could still fall if we are even just a bit luckier.

the energy will be coming onshore this evening.....so the 00z models may shift back a bit, we'll see.

It must have been rough, particularly given it happened two years in a row (1990 and 1991). In 1984 they apparently had to close the canal for the season as early as February 13th, which is pretty ironic given March 1984 was one of the coldest ever recorded in this city.