wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 hr 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 There is also more precip at 132, but no need to post lol Total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yesterday and this morning the NWS had upper 30's and even 40 in the forecast, well atleast for now they dont have a big warm up.. Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 25. Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Hey if we can get through next week (where a lot of the East my torch) and get a few clipper snowfalls to boot, then consider ourselves very fortunate. I feel like the mid/ latter February snow threats would be mainly clippers or overunning. When early Spring blockiness season starts to kick in during March - then we have our shot at a typical interior major dump. We are due ...the last few early Springs have been pretty anemic. The biggest threat around this time frame (day or two later) is the potential clipper that is shown by most models..Gfs brings it down to around 992mb north of toronto.. Here's the 12z gfs qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 NWS WITH TEMPSCONTINUING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS SNOW. HOWEVER...NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE ANY QPF OF SUBSTANTIAL VALUES...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Hey if we can get through next week (where a lot of the East my torch) and get a few clipper snowfalls to boot, then consider ourselves very fortunate. I feel like the mid/ latter February snow threats would be mainly clippers or overunning. When early Spring blockiness season starts to kick in during March - then we have our shot at a typical interior major dump. We are due ...the last few early Springs have been pretty anemic. My winter forecast (Made in November) called for a rude awakening in March. Below avg temps and above avg snowfall. The last 2 Marches BGM has had 1 and 2 inches of snow for the entire month. CFS is showing a bit more troughing at 500mb, and there are some indications that the NAO trends negatively at the end of this month. There is hope, but by March 1 I'm ready for spring... time to go fishin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Well April 1 is trout season so we can stand some more snow in March. RE: the NAO, it becomes our friend much more in Upstate NY during March in a general sense. Whereas more often than not is a dry supressor in the heart of winter. Then it becomes our enemy again from mid April to June when it gets too late for snow and you just get nasty chilly rains..... My winter forecast (Made in November) called for a rude awakening in March. Below avg temps and above avg snowfall. The last 2 Marches BGM has had 1 and 2 inches of snow for the entire month. CFS is showing a bit more troughing at 500mb, and there are some indications that the NAO trends negatively at the end of this month. There is hope, but by March 1 I'm ready for spring... time to go fishin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I want a storm like February 28-29,1984. Everyone from Buffalo to Toronto to Ottawa to Montreal got clobbered by that storm. Over a foot in Toronto and 17" in Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 GFS still has the "super clipper" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Temps on the gfs, during the potential clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Temps on the gfs, during the potential clipper previous runs of the gfs showed 850mb winds @ 60kts associated with this clipper:arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 certainly with the gradient setting up, it looks to be a fast moving active pattern as energy shoots W-E from the pac jet across the gradient with several impulse.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Looks like one low after the other this weekend...Total QPF looks decent.. is it overdone? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 gfs looks overdone compared to other modeling, but its such a busy flow, we will have a better idea probably starting with todays runs and beyond. the main issue is that the models differ in the number of impulse and where they track. we will have to start comparing qpf once they can settle the basic ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Just for my own knowledge, is there one model that handles this setup better than another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 GFS is consistent at 12z... still shows a pretty strong clipper going right over Eastern Lake Ontario region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Looks like one low after the other this weekend...Total QPF looks decent.. is it overdone? Thoughts? This would be great for us up here. I'm sure it'll become less robust as we get closer to the event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It looks like mainly a north of I-90 event, with maybe a few scraps (an inch or two) around here, but a several inch type deal from TG to Andy. The main function from my perspective is that it means we stave off armageddon for about three more days before the nasty two day thaw commences on Wednesday. LOL But thaws happen and we have had a great six week stretch of continual cold. This would be great for us up here. I'm sure it'll become less robust as we get closer to the event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It looks like mainly a north of I-90 event, with maybe a few scraps (an inch or two) around here, but a several inch type deal from TG to Andy. The main function from my perspective is that it means we stave off armageddon for about three more days before the nasty two day thaw commences on Wednesday. LOL But thaws happen and we have had a great six week stretch of continual cold. It's about time that I'm in the bullseye. Unless I'm reading the GFS wrong, it seems to be hinting at freezing rain for Ottawa around Thursday next week, with the 540 thickness line being right over the city. The legendary Ottawa valley effect might do its dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I'm happy for you even though it would be a modest bullseye. I haven't been in a bullseye all winter either...hmm maybe in March..... It's about time that I'm in the bullseye. Unless I'm reading the GFS wrong, it seems to be hinting at freezing rain for Ottawa around Thursday next week, with the 540 thickness line being right over the city. The legendary Ottawa valley effect might do its dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 wktv A series of fast moving weak clipper systems will bring an opportunity for snow on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. An inch or two of snow are possible each of these day.. http://www.wktv.com/weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 18z gfs 24 hr precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 It's about time that I'm in the bullseye. Unless I'm reading the GFS wrong, it seems to be hinting at freezing rain for Ottawa around Thursday next week, with the 540 thickness line being right over the city. The legendary Ottawa valley effect might do its dirty work. u r right,, there would be a period of FRZRA/DZ,but with the storng SW flow, it would be shortlived on that run verbatim. whether its a one day warmup or a 3 day that remains to be seen.....since the thaw heads into the northeast around day 6, i think it will be about 3 more days before the extent of the warmup is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I am assuming this is pretty minor along the Thruway corridor from UCA to ALB. Most models have the main event north of us and you can't really trust small amounts of qpf such as .1 or .15" along the southern periphery. Also ...if anything these clippers trend a little north of progged. The Ottawa guys are sitting pretty I think. 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 HPC 5 day total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Quite a bit of that may be the LES...as opposed to the clipper.... HPC 5 day total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Kalb SO...BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE WEAKER SYSTEMS SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. STILL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE MOST ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND VALLEYS. ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME WARMING ALOFT COULD CHANGE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN SOUTHERN AREAS. ALL THE CLIPPER EVENTS LOOK TO BE LOW QPF EVENTS. HPC day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 EC now calling for "rain or snow" on Sunday in Ottawa with a high around 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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