CNYWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Alright, was initially going to wait for 0z runs to re-affirm what has been on the models for the past couple days before starting this thread, but couldn't resist as this is now T-7 Days out per most recent model cycle. In addition, despite the usual disagreement on track, intensity, and timing, the potential storm is on virtually every model, so I no longer think it's too early to begin discussing. Have at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Seen a few posts running around about how deep this system has been modeled at, so here is a few images from the GFS and ECM beyond this timeframe. Yes... that is Sub 941mb on the Euro and Sub 930mb on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This kind of setup screams potential for a bomb if the phase happens similarly to the GFS depiction wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 its the elusive triple phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 HPC... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 226 PM EST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 06 2011 - 12Z THU FEB 10 2011 UPDATED PRELIM PROGS HAD INCORPORATED A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THE LATEST ECMWF MEAN INTO THE BLEND THAN THE EARLY PRELIM. WE LIKED THE IDEA OF THE NEW ECMWF MEAN SOMEWHAT WEAKENING NRN STREAM ENERGY VICINITY OF THE LAKES/NEW ENG DAYS 4-5...WHILE PLAYING UP MORE SIGNIFICANT TROFFING AT 500MB OVER THE W CENTRAL CONUS THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. 00Z/03 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED HIGH SPREAD WITH THE FOLLOWING MAJOR SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS OR GULF COAST REGION NEXT THU/DAY 7. THE NEW DETERMINISTIC 12Z/03 GFS SHOWS A DISTINCT TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z/03 UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BY TUE DAY 5...DROPPING A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE SSE ON THE E SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. THE 12Z/03 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE TOO...AND ARE ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z/03 ECMWF RUN. THE NEW 12Z/03 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE SHARPER AND ABOUT 18HRS SLOWER WITH THE AZ TROF WED THAN THAN THE CORRESPONDING GFS....AND IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THE 00Z/03 ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ALL SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHARPER TROF OVER THE GRT BASIN AND IT SEEMS TO BE PANNING OUT. WE INCORPORATED NEW DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS INTO THE FINAL GRAPHICS. A MAJOR SYS IS MORE LIKELY NOW ALONG THE GULF/SERN COAST THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL OBSCURE 6 AND 7 DAYS OUT. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY NWWD WITH A MAJOR STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU DAY 7. AMIDST HIGH UNCERTAINTY...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT RUNS TREND EVEN FARTHER W WITH THIS STORM NEXT WEEK TOWARDS THE FAVORED LA NINA TRACK THRU THE OH VLY/WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. FLOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HPC... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 226 PM EST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 06 2011 - 12Z THU FEB 10 2011 UPDATED PRELIM PROGS HAD INCORPORATED A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THE LATEST ECMWF MEAN INTO THE BLEND THAN THE EARLY PRELIM. WE LIKED THE IDEA OF THE NEW ECMWF MEAN SOMEWHAT WEAKENING NRN STREAM ENERGY VICINITY OF THE LAKES/NEW ENG DAYS 4-5...WHILE PLAYING UP MORE SIGNIFICANT TROFFING AT 500MB OVER THE W CENTRAL CONUS THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. 00Z/03 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED HIGH SPREAD WITH THE FOLLOWING MAJOR SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS OR GULF COAST REGION NEXT THU/DAY 7. THE NEW DETERMINISTIC 12Z/03 GFS SHOWS A DISTINCT TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z/03 UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BY TUE DAY 5...DROPPING A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE SSE ON THE E SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. THE 12Z/03 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE TOO...AND ARE ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z/03 ECMWF RUN. THE NEW 12Z/03 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE SHARPER AND ABOUT 18HRS SLOWER WITH THE AZ TROF WED THAN THAN THE CORRESPONDING GFS....AND IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THE 00Z/03 ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ALL SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHARPER TROF OVER THE GRT BASIN AND IT SEEMS TO BE PANNING OUT. WE INCORPORATED NEW DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS INTO THE FINAL GRAPHICS. A MAJOR SYS IS MORE LIKELY NOW ALONG THE GULF/SERN COAST THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL OBSCURE 6 AND 7 DAYS OUT. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY NWWD WITH A MAJOR STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU DAY 7. AMIDST HIGH UNCERTAINTY...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT RUNS TREND EVEN FARTHER W WITH THIS STORM NEXT WEEK TOWARDS THE FAVORED LA NINA TRACK THRU THE OH VLY/WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. FLOOD if this tracks west then thats what we will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0z gfs Well, with a slight northwest trend, you never know, Ottawa and Montreal might not do too badly. I'd love a storm like January 30,1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0z ecm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm going to start stocking up on bread and whiskey right now. Never too early. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Coming from a weather noob: This system looks to have potential because most of this winter season there were so many SW's that the models had trouble with how they would interact to eventually spawn a storm. In this case it seems pretty cut and dry...norther stream and southern stream...not much there to muck it up. Of course when the phase takes place has yet to be determined so discussing an exact track at this point doesn't make any sense. The only thing we can discuss is that it appears very likely there is going to be a large storm. I hope our Canadian friends get in on the action, but not so much so that the CD goes above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 from nws buf "PERHAPS THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE COMES AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...WHEN THE 00Z GFS/EUROPEAN/GGEM ALL LIFT A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE GGEM IS WEAKER...THE EUROPEAN/GFS BOTH ARE FORECASTING THIS LOW TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 945 MB...VERY IMPRESSIVE IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY. CONSIDERING THIS IS DAY 7...WILL NOT GET TOO WRAPPED UP IN DETAILS. CONSENSUS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR EAST EAST IF IT DOES DEVELOP. WILL ADJUST POPS TO REFLECT THIS NEW MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CARRY A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THURSDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIMILAR SOLUTION...MAY NEED TO ADD TO HWO...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HYPE THIS SYSTEM JUST YET." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well, with a slight northwest trend, you never know, Ottawa and Montreal might not do too badly. I'd love a storm like January 30,1966. OB the most interesting part of this setup for you is that IF it occurs as a full on polar phase as currently modeled, it will likely unleash some serious cold, windchill and ground blizzard type stuff behind the storm. thats as currently modeled.....of course that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 OB the most interesting part of this setup for you is that IF it occurs as a full on polar phase as currently modeled, it will likely unleash some serious cold, windchill and ground blizzard type stuff behind the storm. thats as currently modeled.....of course that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well, when all the model show something big this far out for the same time period, it definitely raises an eyebrow. Here's to hoping for this thing to verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z GFS takes a dump............ .....OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It even eluded the 12z GFS. its the elusive triple phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z GFS takes a dump............ .....OTS. But it did come in line with the other guidence regarding a further west track of this weekend's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 ECM just a tad S / E for our liking, but the storm is still there and close enough for my liking considering the range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's too early to say much about these events...But i did notice something around the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just ONE...ONE BIG one this year. PLEASE? Just one 12" +. PLEEEAAASSSSEEE????? :snowman: Although I wouldn't mind a crippling blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Slick - hang in there SYR will likely bag one by emd of March...pattern becoming more favorable for us. The two in front of us look to be 2-5" jobs but after that more potential exists. At least we have a pretty awesome snowpack right now. HUGE snow piles in parking lots also. Looks and feels like winter so I should be happy for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 At least we have a pretty awesome snowpack right now. HUGE snow piles in parking lots also. Looks and feels like winter so I should be happy for that. sidewalks are a disaster here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 sidewalks are a disaster here Same. Everyone I see is walking on the side of the road. Half the sidewalks aren't even shoveled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I don't think there will be a major storm...If you look at the teleconnections and add the fact there is no blocking...I just feel this will GOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The biggest threat around this time frame (day or two later) is the potential clipper that is shown by most models..Gfs brings it down to around 992mb north of toronto.. Here's the 12z gfs qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 The biggest threat around this time frame (day or two later) is the potential clipper that is shown by most models..Gfs brings it down to around 992mb north of toronto.. Here's the 12z gfs qpf Rather than start a new thread for this storm and seeing as how this thread is still young, will just go ahead and change the dates / subtitle. This is now a thread for the Sunday / Feb 13 Clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12z jma keeps everything further north then the gfs, it looks like the dgex and ggem also do this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 we need to get that clipper south even if it means i get less accums, because the further south all these systems the next 7-10 days go.... the further south and longer the warm air is held at bay next week hopefully the GFS is onto something other than drugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Its hard to keep track of these northern disturbances, it seems like 1 after another.. Here's the 12z ecm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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