phlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Irregardless it really does not matter one of these models is going to be incorrect and they both been consistent .. The Euro has been far more consistent than the GFS....the GFS has been consistent in being a southern track but it has not held to a consistent track for a number of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Let's take the 2/25 discussion here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I would say its further NE then 12 Z... If you are just looking at instantaneous times, which is silly. The overall track is north, or northwest, overall. The latest GFS shows the low at 18Z Friday over Long Island. The track is essentially just south of or right over the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 OP GFS showing pretty nice height rises around Day in the N. Atlantic but it's transient. Personally I think we're done with any significant snows. Maybe some of that snow/rain mix but nothing significant with minor accumulations, but nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The latest guidance is much more neutral (as opposed to positive) with the NAO in the extended. That's a big change from the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 OP GFS showing pretty nice height rises around Day in the N. Atlantic but it's transient. Personally I think we're done with any significant snows. Maybe some of that snow/rain mix but nothing significant with minor accumulations, but nothing significant. If by "nothing significant", you mean no 6"+ snowstorms in Philly...I would tend to agree. I do think there's a decent chance for at least 1 or 2 smaller events during March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 If by "nothing significant", you mean no 6"+ snowstorms in Philly...I would tend to agree. I do think there's a decent chance for at least 1 or 2 smaller events during March. 3"+...perhaps my yearning for spring has clouded my judgement, but at the very least the last days of Feb will establish a pattern that is not be supportive of anything decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 New pattern per the EC seems to be Cutter, Clipper, Cutter, Clipper, Cutter... (with the clippers generally remaining just north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 So in other words torch/flood, cold rain, torch/flood, cold rain, torch/flood......... New pattern per the EC seems to be Cutter, Clipper, Cutter, Clipper, Cutter... (with the clippers generally remaining just north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I can see a decent storm in March - but likely nothing for the next ten days. Remember that long range depictions can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Last year, towards the end of winter, we torched. The Spring and Summer wound up being a torch. This year, it's getting rainy. Maybe a very rainy Spring and Summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 please no, that would be hideous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Last year, towards the end of winter, we torched. The Spring and Summer wound up being a torch. This year, it's getting rainy. Maybe a very rainy Spring and Summer? My redwood would like that But, last year there was a big rainy windy nor'easter in March... then it torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 So is the wind event coming up on Friday going to be as severe as last weekends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 So in other words torch/flood, cold rain, torch/flood, cold rain, torch/flood......... No, if the clippers come south far enough there could be snow with them. Not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 So in other words torch/flood, cold rain, torch/flood, cold rain, torch/flood......... Expect this through May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I would love to see a cool and wet spring season extended into June. My landscaping would love it. Do not want to see a repeat of last year's horrid summer. Last year, towards the end of winter, we torched. The Spring and Summer wound up being a torch. This year, it's getting rainy. Maybe a very rainy Spring and Summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I would love to see a cool and wet spring season extended into June. My landscaping would love it. Do not want to see a repeat of last year's horrid summer. I agree, seems like many times we go from winter to summer! Skipping spring. Would like to have a nice mild spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Last year, towards the end of winter, we torched. The Spring and Summer wound up being a torch. This year, it's getting rainy. Maybe a very rainy Spring and Summer? please no, that would be hideous Agree with winterwarlock. No rainy spring/summer please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 All this talk of spring, and summer is making me want Decemmer 2011 to get here even faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Agree with winterwarlock. No rainy spring/summer please. I hope we don't see it either...just speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Fantasy snowstorm on the GFS at hr. 300. Far off, but at least the cutter pattern doesn't look set in stone after ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 GFS continues to show snow chances D10 and beyond.. Euro hinting at any of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 GFS continues to show chances D10 and beyond.. Euro hinting at any of this? no considering the euro doesnt go past day 10, but day ten is a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Paul who is now doing long ranger at accu see's maybe a cold shot mid march but notta till then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 no considering the euro doesnt go past day 10, but day ten is a torch GFS has a rain-snow around then, so I wondered what the Euro showed. Oh well, D10 could be cold tonight at 0z. But, even if we get no more snow, it's been a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 no considering the euro doesnt go past day 10, but day ten is a torch ECM ENS are supposedly a bit better for March. Both the 18z GFS and the 18z GEFS show some legitimate threats in the long range with a -NAO developing and the cold pool over Canada moving into the East Coast. GFS shows very chilly weather in the long range with an arctic front bringing -20C 850s to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Bring on spring! I hope the long range Euro is correct. It was a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Bring on spring! I hope the long range Euro is correct. It was a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 ECM ENS are supposedly a bit better for March. Both the 18z GFS and the 18z GEFS show some legitimate threats in the long range with a -NAO developing and the cold pool over Canada moving into the East Coast. GFS shows very chilly weather in the long range with an arctic front bringing -20C 850s to NYC. NAO looks neutral at best, if not just positive, on the 18Z GFS and GEFS. Plus whatever negativity it has appears to be more east-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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