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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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Irregardless it really does not matter one of these models is going to be incorrect and they both been consistent ..

The Euro has been far more consistent than the GFS....the GFS has been consistent in being a southern track but it has not held to a consistent track for a number of runs.

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I would say its further NE then 12 Z...

If you are just looking at instantaneous times, which is silly. The overall track is north, or northwest, overall. The latest GFS shows the low at 18Z Friday over Long Island. The track is essentially just south of or right over the Lehigh Valley.

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OP GFS showing pretty nice height rises around Day in the N. Atlantic but it's transient. Personally I think we're done with any significant snows. Maybe some of that snow/rain mix but nothing significant with minor accumulations, but nothing significant.

If by "nothing significant", you mean no 6"+ snowstorms in Philly...I would tend to agree. I do think there's a decent chance for at least 1 or 2 smaller events during March.

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If by "nothing significant", you mean no 6"+ snowstorms in Philly...I would tend to agree. I do think there's a decent chance for at least 1 or 2 smaller events during March.

3"+...perhaps my yearning for spring has clouded my judgement, but at the very least the last days of Feb will establish a pattern that is not be supportive of anything decent...

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Last year, towards the end of winter, we torched. The Spring and Summer wound up being a torch.

This year, it's getting rainy. Maybe a very rainy Spring and Summer?

My redwood would like that :thumbsup:

But, last year there was a big rainy windy nor'easter in March... then it torched.

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I would love to see a cool and wet spring season extended into June. My landscaping would love it. Do not want to see a repeat of last year's horrid summer.

Last year, towards the end of winter, we torched. The Spring and Summer wound up being a torch.

This year, it's getting rainy. Maybe a very rainy Spring and Summer?

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I would love to see a cool and wet spring season extended into June. My landscaping would love it. Do not want to see a repeat of last year's horrid summer.

I agree, seems like many times we go from winter to summer! Skipping spring. Would like to have a nice mild spring!

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no considering the euro doesnt go past day 10, but day ten is a torch

ECM ENS are supposedly a bit better for March. Both the 18z GFS and the 18z GEFS show some legitimate threats in the long range with a -NAO developing and the cold pool over Canada moving into the East Coast. GFS shows very chilly weather in the long range with an arctic front bringing -20C 850s to NYC.

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ECM ENS are supposedly a bit better for March. Both the 18z GFS and the 18z GEFS show some legitimate threats in the long range with a -NAO developing and the cold pool over Canada moving into the East Coast. GFS shows very chilly weather in the long range with an arctic front bringing -20C 850s to NYC.

NAO looks neutral at best, if not just positive, on the 18Z GFS and GEFS. Plus whatever negativity it has appears to be more east-based.

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