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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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At this point I would forecast rain, but keep an eye out in case the other models start shifting south to fall in line with it. The NAO shifting phase from negative to positive is a reason to keep an eye out.

After this storm the NAO seems to be consistently modeled as positive so I would think threats will be minimal as we head into next week.

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Nope, looks like we're going to be mostly/all rain as well...GFS is an outlier.

Interesting outlook....

I would say at this time that any solution is viable because you have two different camps right now..

1. ECM/UKMET and 18 Z NAM with a further north track.../Nogaps (should be noted that this has come south 3 runs in a row now)

2. GFS/GGEM... GGEM is further north then the GFS but no where near the ECM...

I am not going to say which camp is correct but i do remember just these past two waves that were suppose to be rain in the medium range.... on models such as the ECM...even the GFS..they both had high temperatures yesterday in the 50-60 range at one point and time...

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Interesting outlook....

I would say at this time that any solution is viable because you have two different camps right now..

1. ECM/UKMET and 18 Z NAM with a further north track.../Nogaps (should be noted that this has come south 3 runs in a row now)

2. GFS/GGEM... GGEM is further north then the GFS but no where near the ECM...

I am not going to say which camp is correct but i do remember just these past two waves that were suppose to be rain in the medium range.... on models such as the ECM...even the GFS..they both had high temperatures yesterday in the 50-60 range at one point and time...

NOGAPS is inland. Oh well, I guess you'll lose hope now, right? :lol:

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NOGAPS is inland. Oh well, I guess you'll lose hope now, right? :lol:

Either way it does not matter to me.. and the NOGAPS is only a part or piece of guidance ...much like the ECM/GFS/GGEM/UKMET... oh and FYI i do not involve hope in weather forecasting because it does not belong....if it rains it rains...if it snows it snows...but i would not pretend something is set in stone at 72 hrs out..especially this season...this season seems to be it finds a way to snow ....will this time be the same? Too early to say either way...

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Did i ever say they were going to get dumped on last night?

No, you just said it seems to want to snow. Except last night ;)

However..it did indeed snow here last night.. And i think its safe to say that ABE has more snow this month then Elko scooter.gif

Haha, yeah yeah rub it in. :gun_bandana:

In any case, the 18Z GFS, while still cold, isn't "as cold"... it looks significantly less snowy right along I-95.

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For the Friday'ish event, the 0Z NAM is juicy as expected but the 850 freezing line is in...Vermont/New Hampshire.

according to the storm vista 48hr snow map.. everyone on 1-95 gets in on snow.. unless im reading the map wrong? Wonder if it accounts for previous snowfall? shows NYC 8-12, philly 4-8

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according to the storm vista 48hr snow map.. everyone on 1-95 gets in on snow.. unless im reading the map wrong? Wonder if it accounts for previous snowfall? shows NYC 8-12, philly 4-8

That looks quite impossible based on this

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KPHL.txt

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KTTN.txt

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KNYC.txt

Something is quite wrong with that map... whether its old or what, I don't know, but the text output definitely says no snow.

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GFS is warmer because it has a stronger low then 18 Z which pushes the 850 slightly north of the 18 z run.....

00z GGEM also appears to take the same track as the GFS...have not seen the in between hours just going by hr 60 and hr 72...but its also warmer....

Surface is as follows in KABE with 850s on 00z GFS

FRI 12Z 25-FEB 1.1 1.1 1010 99 99 0.34 553 546

FRI 18Z 25-FEB 0.4 -0.6 1001 98 100 0.75 546 545

SAT 00Z 26-FEB -2.2 -5.0 1013 96 82 0.08 542 533

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GFS is warmer because it has a stronger low then 18 Z which pushes the 850 slightly north of the 18 z run.....

Compared to 12Z its also much further north. At 18Z Friday, the 12Z GFS had the low over Ocean City, Maryland. At the same time on the 0Z GFS, the low is over Toms River, New Jersey.

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Any hope in the longer range?

I am only looking at the 6 hr text output and judging by my region...the #s seem about the same so i am taking that to mean a similar track...

It appears to be the GGEM/GFS/NAM versus UK/ECM as of 00z

GGEM/GFS very similar track difference in surface temps and the NAM slightly north and warmer then the GFS....

GFS been pretty much consistent... but then so has the ECM... NOGAPS is strikingly similar to the ECM..

One of these models is going to be wrong if they keep on there separate agenda...

.

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Compared to 12Z its also much further north. At 18Z Friday, the 12Z GFS had the low over Ocean City, Maryland. At the same time on the 0Z GFS, the low is over Toms River, New Jersey.

I would say its further NE then 12 Z...

00zgfs850mbTSLPp06066.gif

And also 5 mbs deeper then 12 Z which is IMO the reason for the slightly warmer details..

12zgfs850mbTSLPp06078.gif

Irregardless it really does not matter one of these models is going to be incorrect and they both been consistent ..

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