phlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 FWIW the Euro vastly outperformed the GFS at this range with this past event. GFS was torching us on Monday and suppressed the snow a fair bit south on last night's wave IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 yeah, how many times have we seen this pattern, and people always fall for the GFS....way too far south here IMO euro takes the low through pitt area to hudson valley, snow line is back in central ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 At this point I would forecast rain, but keep an eye out in case the other models start shifting south to fall in line with it. The NAO shifting phase from negative to positive is a reason to keep an eye out. After this storm the NAO seems to be consistently modeled as positive so I would think threats will be minimal as we head into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Love to Elk cash in with all snow friday. Ski Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z NAM FWIW goes back north, rain/snow line back towards NW PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Wonderful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18 Z GFS stays consistent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFS is so damn close. One little shift south and this is going to be an epic weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFS is so damn close. One little shift south and this is going to be an epic weekend. Hi, jrodd - given the intensity and pattern, still have to go with the other models for now. But, wouldn't rule out snow as it's found a way to even in a bad setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looks like mother nature wants to make up for lost time in terms of snow for those of you north and west of I-78, after getting the shaft most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looks like mother nature wants to make up for lost time in terms of snow for those of you north and west of I-78, after getting the shaft most of the winter. Nope, looks like we're going to be mostly/all rain as well...GFS is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z GGEM ensembles were weaker and furthur south then 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Nope, looks like we're going to be mostly/all rain as well...GFS is an outlier. Interesting outlook.... I would say at this time that any solution is viable because you have two different camps right now.. 1. ECM/UKMET and 18 Z NAM with a further north track.../Nogaps (should be noted that this has come south 3 runs in a row now) 2. GFS/GGEM... GGEM is further north then the GFS but no where near the ECM... I am not going to say which camp is correct but i do remember just these past two waves that were suppose to be rain in the medium range.... on models such as the ECM...even the GFS..they both had high temperatures yesterday in the 50-60 range at one point and time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Interesting outlook.... I would say at this time that any solution is viable because you have two different camps right now.. 1. ECM/UKMET and 18 Z NAM with a further north track.../Nogaps (should be noted that this has come south 3 runs in a row now) 2. GFS/GGEM... GGEM is further north then the GFS but no where near the ECM... I am not going to say which camp is correct but i do remember just these past two waves that were suppose to be rain in the medium range.... on models such as the ECM...even the GFS..they both had high temperatures yesterday in the 50-60 range at one point and time... NOGAPS is inland. Oh well, I guess you'll lose hope now, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NOGAPS is inland. Oh well, I guess you'll lose hope now, right? Either way it does not matter to me.. and the NOGAPS is only a part or piece of guidance ...much like the ECM/GFS/GGEM/UKMET... oh and FYI i do not involve hope in weather forecasting because it does not belong....if it rains it rains...if it snows it snows...but i would not pretend something is set in stone at 72 hrs out..especially this season...this season seems to be it finds a way to snow ....will this time be the same? Too early to say either way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 .this season seems to be it finds a way to snow Yes, because Allentown got absolutely dumped on last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yes, because Allentown got absolutely dumped on last night Did i ever say they were going to get dumped on last night? However..it did indeed snow here last night.. And i think its safe to say that ABE has more snow this month then Elko FYI this thread is not about last night anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Did i ever say they were going to get dumped on last night? No, you just said it seems to want to snow. Except last night However..it did indeed snow here last night.. And i think its safe to say that ABE has more snow this month then Elko Haha, yeah yeah rub it in. In any case, the 18Z GFS, while still cold, isn't "as cold"... it looks significantly less snowy right along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 For the Friday'ish event, the 0Z NAM is juicy as expected but the 850 freezing line is in...Vermont/New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 For the Friday'ish event, the 0Z NAM is juicy as expected but the 850 freezing line is in...Vermont/New Hampshire. according to the storm vista 48hr snow map.. everyone on 1-95 gets in on snow.. unless im reading the map wrong? Wonder if it accounts for previous snowfall? shows NYC 8-12, philly 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 according to the storm vista 48hr snow map.. everyone on 1-95 gets in on snow.. unless im reading the map wrong? Wonder if it accounts for previous snowfall? shows NYC 8-12, philly 4-8 That looks quite impossible based on this http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KPHL.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KTTN.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KNYC.txt Something is quite wrong with that map... whether its old or what, I don't know, but the text output definitely says no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 That looks quite impossible based on this http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_KPHL.txt http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_KTTN.txt http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_KNYC.txt Something is quite wrong with that map... whether its old or what, I don't know, but the text output definitely says no snow. Thanks. Thats why i never trust them maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS is warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS is warmer because it has a stronger low then 18 Z which pushes the 850 slightly north of the 18 z run..... 00z GGEM also appears to take the same track as the GFS...have not seen the in between hours just going by hr 60 and hr 72...but its also warmer.... Surface is as follows in KABE with 850s on 00z GFS FRI 12Z 25-FEB 1.1 1.1 1010 99 99 0.34 553 546 FRI 18Z 25-FEB 0.4 -0.6 1001 98 100 0.75 546 545 SAT 00Z 26-FEB -2.2 -5.0 1013 96 82 0.08 542 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 both the GFS and NAM came in significantly wetter as well, and both are still nowhere near the Euro track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 00z ECM sticks to its guns.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 00z ECM sticks to its guns.... Any hope in the longer range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS is warmer because it has a stronger low then 18 Z which pushes the 850 slightly north of the 18 z run..... Compared to 12Z its also much further north. At 18Z Friday, the 12Z GFS had the low over Ocean City, Maryland. At the same time on the 0Z GFS, the low is over Toms River, New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Any hope in the longer range? I am only looking at the 6 hr text output and judging by my region...the #s seem about the same so i am taking that to mean a similar track... It appears to be the GGEM/GFS/NAM versus UK/ECM as of 00z GGEM/GFS very similar track difference in surface temps and the NAM slightly north and warmer then the GFS.... GFS been pretty much consistent... but then so has the ECM... NOGAPS is strikingly similar to the ECM.. One of these models is going to be wrong if they keep on there separate agenda... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Compared to 12Z its also much further north. At 18Z Friday, the 12Z GFS had the low over Ocean City, Maryland. At the same time on the 0Z GFS, the low is over Toms River, New Jersey. I would say its further NE then 12 Z... And also 5 mbs deeper then 12 Z which is IMO the reason for the slightly warmer details.. Irregardless it really does not matter one of these models is going to be incorrect and they both been consistent .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.