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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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The event towards the end of the week looks interesting. Could be a variety of things.

Yeah, that's going to be the next challenge. As you'd expect this time of year, latitude is going to be your friend, but even PHL could get into the wintry stuff.

P.S.: Don't see much change from the gradient pattern over the next 10 days or so.

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Yes I did see, the 0z had a cutter as well. But the EURO has lost its luster at D4-5 this winter.

The Euro had a better handle on round one of this event than did the GFS in the d4 range. GFS on Thursday night was putting 50's/60's into Philly for today. :(

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Yeah, that's going to be the next challenge. As you'd expect this time of year, latitude is going to be your friend, but even PHL could get into the wintry stuff.

P.S.: Don't see much change from the gradient pattern over the next 10 days or so.

You think phl can get on the wintry stuff? I dont see a chance. The pattern in my eyes supports a storm cutting west of us. You have a high pressure moving out with southerl flow kicking in. No more displaced pv dropping down like this storm. There is nothing to block it from going west. There definitely will be a big storm since we are going from a neg nao to pos nao, but i think its going to be a big rainstorm here. I think the better shot of getting some more snow is after that cutter and a fresh cold airmass arrives maybe some pv generated snows.

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You think phl can get on the wintry stuff? I dont see a chance. The pattern in my eyes supports a storm cutting west of us. You have a high pressure moving out with southerl flow kicking in. No more displaced pv dropping down like this storm. There is nothing to block it from going west. There definitely will be a big storm since we are going from a neg nao to pos nao, but i think its going to be a big rainstorm here. I think the better shot of getting some more snow is after that cutter and a fresh cold airmass arrives maybe some pv generated snows.

Well, you'll definitely need a more suppressive polar vortex than currently modeled, that's for sure. I'd bet on rain for PHL, but I wouldn't say the probability for some wintry stuff is nil.

I definitely think the first two weeks of March offer 2-3 more chances of wintry precip as the Hudson Bay vortex takes over (well, I guess I should say if the HBV takes over, but that's what I'm forecasting right now).

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With the NAO progged to be positive through most of the next two weeks, I would think it would be rather unusual for there to be a couple of coastal snow events as depicted by the GFS. But I'm no long-ranger.

With JB exiting Accu, I doubt there anyone will be watching the "long ranger" anytime soon. :whistle:

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Most people are probably throwing it out considering every model, now the ggem has the track like the euro, cutter.

Not really true..last night the ECM took the surface low into SW PA and NE from there so at 90 hrs it was an elongated low over Central NY...

12 Z GGEM is over the PA /MD border on the east central side..

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So its not a ECM track...

Not saying that the GFS is correct but it seems as of now the ECM is the NW camp...

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Not really true..last night the ECM took the surface low into SW PA and NE from there so at 90 hrs it was an elongated low over Central NY...

12 Z GGEM is over the PA /MD border on the east central side..

So its not a ECM track...

Not saying that the GFS is correct but it seems as of now the ECM is the NW camp...

ahh yea i see it on ewall. I just looked at it on the canadian site and from the 12 hr graphics it looked a lot further west. I still don't think this produces anything worthwhile in terms of wintry precip outside the pocs and maybe lehigh valley.

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Given what happen last night, I would not be surprised if this system coming the end of the week brings another round of snows. Still want to see if the Euro shifts things further east.

Certainly a lot different on what I was thinking how these two weeks would turn out. It seems to me that its a kind of season that it just wants to snow.

So, Friday does look pretty interesting to say the least..

By the way, GREarth, and its an experimental upgrade, but it now plots the GFS and the NAM. Its really cool in that I can see how much snow each model is going for..

So, it looks like over in south central PA, 3 to 5 inches. Near Philly about 3 inches worth.

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