tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 The event towards the end of the week looks interesting. Could be a variety of things. Not saying its right or wrong, but the euro has been steadfast on a big cutter with that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not saying its right or wrong, but the euro has been steadfast on a big cutter with that event. Yes I did see, the 0z had a cutter as well. But the EURO has lost its luster at D4-5 this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The event towards the end of the week looks interesting. Could be a variety of things. Yeah, that's going to be the next challenge. As you'd expect this time of year, latitude is going to be your friend, but even PHL could get into the wintry stuff. P.S.: Don't see much change from the gradient pattern over the next 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I know what the indices are saying, and it won't be a true -AO because heights over the pole will be near normal, but I'm still expecting the Hudson Bay vortex to re-establish itself the first week of March. It might be transient, but Mar 4-10 is looking below normal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yes I did see, the 0z had a cutter as well. But the EURO has lost its luster at D4-5 this winter. The Euro had a better handle on round one of this event than did the GFS in the d4 range. GFS on Thursday night was putting 50's/60's into Philly for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah, that's going to be the next challenge. As you'd expect this time of year, latitude is going to be your friend, but even PHL could get into the wintry stuff. P.S.: Don't see much change from the gradient pattern over the next 10 days or so. You think phl can get on the wintry stuff? I dont see a chance. The pattern in my eyes supports a storm cutting west of us. You have a high pressure moving out with southerl flow kicking in. No more displaced pv dropping down like this storm. There is nothing to block it from going west. There definitely will be a big storm since we are going from a neg nao to pos nao, but i think its going to be a big rainstorm here. I think the better shot of getting some more snow is after that cutter and a fresh cold airmass arrives maybe some pv generated snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You think phl can get on the wintry stuff? I dont see a chance. The pattern in my eyes supports a storm cutting west of us. You have a high pressure moving out with southerl flow kicking in. No more displaced pv dropping down like this storm. There is nothing to block it from going west. There definitely will be a big storm since we are going from a neg nao to pos nao, but i think its going to be a big rainstorm here. I think the better shot of getting some more snow is after that cutter and a fresh cold airmass arrives maybe some pv generated snows. Well, you'll definitely need a more suppressive polar vortex than currently modeled, that's for sure. I'd bet on rain for PHL, but I wouldn't say the probability for some wintry stuff is nil. I definitely think the first two weeks of March offer 2-3 more chances of wintry precip as the Hudson Bay vortex takes over (well, I guess I should say if the HBV takes over, but that's what I'm forecasting right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS and looks like the GGEM are showing a snowy or rain-snow event for next week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 pretty much expecting rain for the day 4 threat...E NA pattern ahead of it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Middle-end of GFS run tonight is a weenie's fantasy run. Looking beautiful in the LR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Middle-end of GFS run tonight is a weenie's fantasy run. Looking beautiful in the LR! is this the feb 28 - mar 1 timeframe that ji has been talking about in the mid-atlantic thread?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The event towards the end of the week looks interesting. Could be a variety of things. I'm hoping for just rain on Friday. I'm the photographer at a wedding up there in Hazleton that night, and I must be there no matter what. I don't need a wintry mess to cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 With the NAO progged to be positive through most of the next two weeks, I would think it would be rather unusual for there to be a couple of coastal snow events as depicted by the GFS. But I'm no long-ranger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 With the NAO progged to be positive through most of the next two weeks, I would think it would be rather unusual for there to be a couple of coastal snow events as depicted by the GFS. But I'm no long-ranger. With JB exiting Accu, I doubt there anyone will be watching the "long ranger" anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The GFS continues to disagree with the Euro for fridays event. Shifted even further SE today and now brings snow to I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Wonderful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I was wondering how long it would take for someone to notice that... The GFS continues to disagree with the Euro for fridays event. Shifted even further SE today and now brings snow to I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I was wondering how long it would take for someone to notice that... Most people are probably throwing it out considering every model, now the ggem has the track like the euro, cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Most people are probably throwing it out considering every model, now the ggem has the track like the euro, cutter. Sometimes the GFS has been the leader on events this year. I think it has improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Most people are probably throwing it out considering every model, now the ggem has the track like the euro, cutter. Yeah, but given the way people jumped on snow in the past... maybe its just so late in the season now that no one really cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 ^ That could make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFS and NAM in agreement? That's what I heard in another thread, although if every other model says a cutter that isn't a good outlook. This storm isn't that far out, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFS and NAM in agreement? That's what I heard in another thread, although if every other model says a cutter that isn't a good outlook. This storm isn't that far out, really. Yes, the NAM is also south, though doesn't look as cold as the GFS yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Most people are probably throwing it out considering every model, now the ggem has the track like the euro, cutter. Not really true..last night the ECM took the surface low into SW PA and NE from there so at 90 hrs it was an elongated low over Central NY... 12 Z GGEM is over the PA /MD border on the east central side.. So its not a ECM track... Not saying that the GFS is correct but it seems as of now the ECM is the NW camp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFS and NAM in agreement? That's what I heard in another thread, although if every other model says a cutter that isn't a good outlook. This storm isn't that far out, really. the nam is all rain for everyone except the pocs and maybe abe...abe gets an inch off the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Not really true..last night the ECM took the surface low into SW PA and NE from there so at 90 hrs it was an elongated low over Central NY... 12 Z GGEM is over the PA /MD border on the east central side.. So its not a ECM track... Not saying that the GFS is correct but it seems as of now the ECM is the NW camp... ahh yea i see it on ewall. I just looked at it on the canadian site and from the 12 hr graphics it looked a lot further west. I still don't think this produces anything worthwhile in terms of wintry precip outside the pocs and maybe lehigh valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Given what happen last night, I would not be surprised if this system coming the end of the week brings another round of snows. Still want to see if the Euro shifts things further east. Certainly a lot different on what I was thinking how these two weeks would turn out. It seems to me that its a kind of season that it just wants to snow. So, Friday does look pretty interesting to say the least.. By the way, GREarth, and its an experimental upgrade, but it now plots the GFS and the NAM. Its really cool in that I can see how much snow each model is going for.. So, it looks like over in south central PA, 3 to 5 inches. Near Philly about 3 inches worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z FIM shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I had a feeling this was going to happen for Friday's storm. Almost like yesterdays storm. Last minute shift south. GFS is a beauty. Amazing how we could be looking at another snow event in just a few days. LOVE LA NINA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 euro takes the low through pitt area to hudson valley, snow line is back in central ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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