mattinpa Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Snow chance #2 again at 240 hours.. GFS has shown this threat consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Enjoy this warm up while you can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 MOS is in the mid 60s at PHL and 850's are well into the 40s... looks like a decent chance of 70 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Enjoy this warm up while you can... Another torch is just 15 days away on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Another torch is just 15 days away on the GFS. On the 15 day otlook we can count on it.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 192hr has a big rinse cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro weeklies are supporting the trough over West Coast/NW, a big trough over the Maritimes, and a SE ridge extending into the Plains. Welcome to the battle zone over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro weeklies are supporting the trough over West Coast/NW, a big trough over the Maritimes, and a SE ridge extending into the Plains. Welcome to the battle zone over the next two weeks. Is the pv displaced south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is the pv displaced south? In Week 1, it's clearly over W. North America, though the strongest negative anomalies are over the Atlantic at 45N. By Week 2, the strongest anomalies are over Newfoundland with a second center north of Vancouver. The mean pattern looks pretty good for overrunning type events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro weeklies are supporting the trough over West Coast/NW, a big trough over the Maritimes, and a SE ridge extending into the Plains. Welcome to the battle zone over the next two weeks. Could that bring chances of thunderstorms? Or boundaries of rain/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Could that bring chances of thunderstorms? Or boundaries of rain/snow overrunning would probably be more rain/snow/some ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 overrunning would probably be more rain/snow/some ice Not fun for alot of people but fun in the snow zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Could that bring chances of thunderstorms? Or boundaries of rain/snow Probably either if things fall right, but I'd expect the t-storm activity to be farther south into the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Probably either if things fall right, but I'd expect the t-storm activity to be farther south into the Mid-Atlantic. Chase if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 looks like some decent agreement with the mjo emerging from the circle of death in phases 8/1 which alludes to colder times for the east coast per the mjo, but bad for coastal storms. http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 looks like some decent agreement with the mjo emerging from the circle of death in phases 8/1 which alludes to colder times for the east coast per the mjo, but bad for coastal storms. http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml It would actually be good for coastals if the SE ridge wasn't in place. Instead, by forcing the ridge up over Alaska, the MJO forces the wavelengths to shorten and we end up with that pseudo -PNA/-NAO alignment I was talking about earlier in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 It would actually be good for coastals if the SE ridge wasn't in place. Instead, by forcing the ridge up over Alaska, the MJO forces the wavelengths to shorten and we end up with that pseudo -PNA/-NAO alignment I was talking about earlier in the thread. Yea thats true the phase 8 ones, i always think phase 7 going into phase 8, but i guess its the same if its emerging in phase 8...phase 1 though translates to more offshore tracks do to the troff axis being further east correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yea thats true the phase 8 ones, i always think phase going into phase 8, but i guess its the same if its emerging in phase 8...phase 1 though translates to more offshore tracks do to the troff axis being further east correct? Yup. You got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS has what looks like a Miller B around 168 hours.. not far from a snow/ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z euro has 2 snow threats in the gradient pattern after the cutter late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS very stormy in the mid-long range.. if that keeps up, I bet we can eek out a snowstorm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Man, anyone see the end of next week's storm on the gFS? Being a week out, if we get a nice shift east that could be a monster. A lot of potential finally coming back into this pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Man, anyone see the end of next week's storm on the gFS? Being a week out, if we get a nice shift east that could be a monster. A lot of potential finally coming back into this pattern! im not feeling that one, the high sliding off the coast and the whole h5 setup screams cutter. The storm after that one has better potential in my eyes with a high pressure anchored in a better spot and a more confluent flow instead of southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 im not feeling that one, the high sliding off the coast and the whole h5 setup screams cutter. The storm after that one has better potential in my eyes with a high pressure anchored in a better spot and a more confluent flow instead of southerly flow. The NAO looks like it will be more favorable around the 24th as it flips from negative to positive, as compared to how it looks later on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 The NAO looks like it will be more favorable around the 24th as it flips from negative to positive, as compared to how it looks later on... yea i see that. Looking at the euro here, with the west coast trof, the high sliding off the coast no 50/50 feature, no displaced pv south to act as a block and no confluence really i just dont see it as much of a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It may not be. I hope nothing is much of a threat for the rest of the year for you guys yea i see that. Looking at the euro here, with the west coast trof, the high sliding off the coast no 50/50 feature, no displaced pv south to act as a block and no confluence really i just dont see it as much of a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 It may not be. I hope nothing is much of a threat for the rest of the year for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think the groundhog was right, for the most part. You can't argue with the season, though. It way overperformed for a La Nina crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think the groundhog was right, for the most part. You can't argue with the season, though. It way overperformed for a La Nina crapshoot. And you're saying this right when we are about to go back to a somewhat wintry pattern haah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The event towards the end of the week looks interesting. Could be a variety of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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