famartin Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12Z GFS and EC had a generally positive NAO especially after the 22nd... 0Z both flipped to negative. I'm sure they'll figure it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The 850 line is'nt the only thing, it looks like mostly snow for philly and the burbs in se pa is just about all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It seems for many in these parts that they will be living on the rain/snow line edge for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 ...and ice and rain. the 850 line is literally over SE PA with the early next wk system. The 850 line shifts from Wilmington at 174 to Philly at 180...if you're north of that you're getting snow for the most part. NYC is all snow. Yeah lehigh and ttn stay all snow....granted this is the euro at 174 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yeah lehigh and ttn stay all snow....granted this is the euro at 174 hrs... Most of Chester county is also all snow also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 per 0z EC, is it WAA over to rain? or somehow all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 per 0z EC, is it WAA over to rain? or somehow all snow? Depends on the surface cold. I wouldn't be surprised if that solution, IF it were correct, also brought sleet and zr to the burbs with warm air trying to work over the colder surface temps. Just because the 850 line is to your south doesn't mean it's a snow solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z GFS says no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z GFS says no snow Then we'll have a blizzard...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z GFS says no snow Way to bring up the positive vibe in this thread, Andy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Way to bring up the positive vibe in this thread, Andy! Don't worry John the 12z Euro will bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Don't worry John the 12z Euro will bring it! per NY thread... hr 162 light snow for the whole area...mod-heavy back in western pa....850's and surface south of dc hr 168 low has jump to the coast.......mod snow phl-nyc....surface and 850's south of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z euro is all snow from the mason dixon line-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 per NY thread... LOL I made a thread on and quoted the same comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The GFS is about 200 miles north, about 6-8 mb stronger, and about 12 hours faster with the storm than the Euro. Confluent patterns would, IMO, yield a faster solution. Ultimately comes down to how far north/strong the low is when it gets shoved east combined with low level cold. Don't underestimate the ice potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Like I just wrote in another thread, my wife & I are flying back to Philly from London next Thursday afternoon (scheduled to arrive back at around 3:30 PM). Anyway, I'm sure I have some friends & coworkers who will take delight if our flight is delayed or rerouted somewhere else. They're sick of my gleee with each snowstorm over the past two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Like I just wrote in another thread, my wife & I are flying back to Philly from London next Thursday afternoon (scheduled to arrive back at around 3:30 PM). Anyway, I'm sure I have some friends & coworkers who will take delight if our flight is delayed or rerouted somewhere else. They're sick of my gleee with each snowstorm over the past two winters. I'm flying in from St. Louis late Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Like I just wrote in another thread, my wife & I are flying back to Philly from London next Thursday afternoon (scheduled to arrive back at around 3:30 PM). Anyway, I'm sure I have some friends & coworkers who will take delight if our flight is delayed or rerouted somewhere else. They're sick of my gleee with each snowstorm over the past two winters. I can't imagine that 3-6" of snow would cancel an international flight. It seems to me that they enjoy canceling or delaying domestic flights, but the international flights fly in and out like clockwork, especially for such a moderate amount. Right now, the 850 line being so far south yields nothing but snow for PHL but that could change if it shifts north. I imagine that ice would be a problem for even international flights. Don't get me wrong: I am not saying that the 12Z Euro shows ice. Just my two cents... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I can't imagine that 3-6" of snow would cancel an international flight. It seems to me that they enjoy canceling or delaying domestic flights, but the international flights fly in and out like clockwork, especially for such a moderate amount. Right now, the 850 line being so far south yields nothing but snow for PHL but that could change if it shifts north. I imagine that ice would be a problem for even international flights. Don't get me wrong: I am not saying that the 12Z Euro shows ice. Just my two cents... As mentioned, its not *so far south*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 That sneaky -NAO/Davis Straits ridge is going to make the medium range temperature forecast here difficult. The 11-15d 850T means are below normal for both the GEFS and ECENS. It's almost as if a giant 50/50 low sets up over the Maritimes. In terms of snow chances, it still looks like we'll need overrunning events as we head into the first week of March, because that 50/50 will suppress anything that tries to come to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The GFS ensembles actually have below normal heights in the Davis Strait and southern Greenland during the 11-15 day period. They have a ridge building north toward Iceland, which normally would be too far east to have much cooling influence for the eastern US. However, in this case with a rather amplified and non-progressive pattern, the Iceland ridge might help to keep that persistent negative anomaly in place over the Canadian Maritimes. The large negative anomaly the GFS ensembles shows off the west coast of Canada around 135W also teleconnects well to troughing in the Canadian Maritimes. On the other hand, extreme cold anomalies in AK/western Canada generally don't teleconnect to cold for the northeast US. That sneaky -NAO/Davis Straits ridge is going to make the medium range temperature forecast here difficult. The 11-15d 850T means are below normal for both the GEFS and ECENS. It's almost as if a giant 50/50 low sets up over the Maritimes. In terms of snow chances, it still looks like we'll need overrunning events as we head into the first week of March, because that 50/50 will suppress anything that tries to come to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 12z GFS... stuck at 30hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 the 12z ggem looks like a 3-6 inch snowstorm http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 the 12z ggem looks like a 3-6 inch snowstorm http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html looks like a cutter later to wipe out the 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I guess the Euro showed squat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I guess the Euro showed squat? suppression FTW (farther south, more strung out piece of crap). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 the 12z ggem looks like a 3-6 inch snowstorm http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Nice, since that is the compromise solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I guess the Euro showed squat? Not a drop til the end of the run when it has a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Nice, since that is the compromise solution right now. lol...helluva compromise between 60 and the warm sector on Monday and nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18 gfs shows a nice little storm from the north PHL burbs on north. going to ride this train for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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