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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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...and ice and rain. the 850 line is literally over SE PA with the early next wk system.

The 850 line shifts from Wilmington at 174 to Philly at 180...if you're north of that you're getting snow for the most part. NYC is all snow.

Yeah lehigh and ttn stay all snow....granted this is the euro at 174 hrs...

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per 0z EC, is it WAA over to rain? or somehow all snow?

Depends on the surface cold. I wouldn't be surprised if that solution, IF it were correct, also brought sleet and zr to the burbs with warm air trying to work over the colder surface temps.

Just because the 850 line is to your south doesn't mean it's a snow solution...

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The GFS is about 200 miles north, about 6-8 mb stronger, and about 12 hours faster with the storm than the Euro.

Confluent patterns would, IMO, yield a faster solution. Ultimately comes down to how far north/strong the low is when it gets shoved east combined with low level cold.

Don't underestimate the ice potential...

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Like I just wrote in another thread, my wife & I are flying back to Philly from London next Thursday afternoon (scheduled to arrive back at around 3:30 PM). Anyway, I'm sure I have some friends & coworkers who will take delight if our flight is delayed or rerouted somewhere else. They're sick of my gleee with each snowstorm over the past two winters.

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Like I just wrote in another thread, my wife & I are flying back to Philly from London next Thursday afternoon (scheduled to arrive back at around 3:30 PM). Anyway, I'm sure I have some friends & coworkers who will take delight if our flight is delayed or rerouted somewhere else. They're sick of my gleee with each snowstorm over the past two winters.

I'm flying in from St. Louis late Monday night. :arrowhead:

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Like I just wrote in another thread, my wife & I are flying back to Philly from London next Thursday afternoon (scheduled to arrive back at around 3:30 PM). Anyway, I'm sure I have some friends & coworkers who will take delight if our flight is delayed or rerouted somewhere else. They're sick of my gleee with each snowstorm over the past two winters.

I can't imagine that 3-6" of snow would cancel an international flight. It seems to me that they enjoy canceling or delaying domestic flights, but the international flights fly in and out like clockwork, especially for such a moderate amount.

Right now, the 850 line being so far south yields nothing but snow for PHL but that could change if it shifts north. I imagine that ice would be a problem for even international flights. Don't get me wrong: I am not saying that the 12Z Euro shows ice.

Just my two cents...

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I can't imagine that 3-6" of snow would cancel an international flight. It seems to me that they enjoy canceling or delaying domestic flights, but the international flights fly in and out like clockwork, especially for such a moderate amount.

Right now, the 850 line being so far south yields nothing but snow for PHL but that could change if it shifts north. I imagine that ice would be a problem for even international flights. Don't get me wrong: I am not saying that the 12Z Euro shows ice.

Just my two cents...

As mentioned, its not *so far south*.

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That sneaky -NAO/Davis Straits ridge is going to make the medium range temperature forecast here difficult. The 11-15d 850T means are below normal for both the GEFS and ECENS. It's almost as if a giant 50/50 low sets up over the Maritimes.

In terms of snow chances, it still looks like we'll need overrunning events as we head into the first week of March, because that 50/50 will suppress anything that tries to come to the coast.

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The GFS ensembles actually have below normal heights in the Davis Strait and southern Greenland during the 11-15 day period. They have a ridge building north toward Iceland, which normally would be too far east to have much cooling influence for the eastern US. However, in this case with a rather amplified and non-progressive pattern, the Iceland ridge might help to keep that persistent negative anomaly in place over the Canadian Maritimes.

The large negative anomaly the GFS ensembles shows off the west coast of Canada around 135W also teleconnects well to troughing in the Canadian Maritimes.

On the other hand, extreme cold anomalies in AK/western Canada generally don't teleconnect to cold for the northeast US.

That sneaky -NAO/Davis Straits ridge is going to make the medium range temperature forecast here difficult. The 11-15d 850T means are below normal for both the GEFS and ECENS. It's almost as if a giant 50/50 low sets up over the Maritimes.

In terms of snow chances, it still looks like we'll need overrunning events as we head into the first week of March, because that 50/50 will suppress anything that tries to come to the coast.

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