Medium-long range thread

[tombo82685]

i forget what winter it was, i think it was early to mid 2000s. Everyone was calling for a snowy and cold winter, when in fact it never came. The famous tuck rule game was played in the only snowstorm to affect the area. The start of winter, has that kind of feel to it

[famartin]

i forget what winter it was, i think it was early to mid 2000s. Everyone was calling for a snowy and cold winter, when in fact it never came. The famous tuck rule game was played in the only snowstorm to affect the area. The start of winter, has that kind of feel to it

You're likely thinking of 01-02. That was depressing. Yeah, one snowstorm in mid-late January and that was pretty much it, save for a few lucky snow squalls in early February.

[tombo82685]

You're likely thinking of 01-02. That was depressing. Yeah, one snowstorm in mid-late January and that was pretty much it, save for a few lucky snow squalls in early February.

that must of been a year wiith a very pos ao, cause if i remember right, their wasn't really any cold air around at all.

[am19psu]

Tuck Rule Game happened during the only time all winter the Tropics cooperated. Is anyone using 01-02 as an analog?

[tombo82685]

Tuck Rule Game happened during the only time all winter the Tropics cooperated. Is anyone using 01-02 as an analog?

going off mt holly's archives...only 2 noteworthy winter storms that year...first one was jan 6, which affected northern and western areas. The other the tuck rule game jan 19-20. Both storms as adam mentioned in the favorable phase 8-2 for cold/storms

[famartin]

that must of been a year wiith a very pos ao, cause if i remember right, their wasn't really any cold air around at all.

Here are the monthly AO indices from CPC:

November 2001: +0.819

December 2001: -1.322

January 2002: +1.381

February 2002: +1.304

March 2002: +0.902

So yeah, mostly positive, though it did swing somewhat negative in December.

[tombo82685]

If we get the bowling ball like the models are showing. Wouldn't be shocked on the back side to see some snow/rain showers make it down towards the region...With a better shot in the pocs of seeing something more than a trace with probably some good lake enhancement on the backside...only shot of snow i see in the next 2 weeks

[NaoPos]

Speaking of the AO, it's been positive for 90 something days straight, (sans 3-4 days where it briefly dipped negative)..

[am19psu]

Speaking of the AO, it's been positive for 90 something days straight, (sans 3-4 days where it briefly dipped negative)..

And not going negative any time soon...

[CoastalWx]

Yeah it's locked for now Adam.

Our only hope is to have some ridging on both sides of NAMR. There are some signs of ridging out west. But even so, with a southwest trough...it will make for a more gradient pattern and try to pump up heights across the se. Lets hope the ridging out west pans out.

[tombo82685]

well atleast we dont have to hear about how warm it has been across the arctic this year so far.

[tombo82685]

And not going negative any time soon...

how do you dislodge the pv from the pole, stratospheric warming?

[NaoPos]

how do you dislodge the pv from the pole, stratospheric warming?

From my understanding, either that, or with some heavy duty tropical forcing.

[am19psu]

how do you dislodge the pv from the pole, stratospheric warming?

Or some sort of mountain torque event that causes Rossby waves to propagate upward and poleward to disrupt the nocturnal polar jet. There is also probably some solar connection that I don't know about. The revised HT connection for a -QBO needs low solar for a SSW event, so we're going to need the sun to quiet down as we head toward the New Year for that to happen.

[am19psu]

From my understanding, either that, or with some heavy duty tropical forcing.

Yeah, the tropical forcing is what usually causes the MTs, especially across the Himalayas

[tombo82685]

Or some sort of mountain torque event that causes Rossby waves to propagate upward and poleward to disrupt the nocturnal polar jet. There is also probably some solar connection that I don't know about. The revised HT connection for a -QBO needs low solar for a SSW event, so we're going to need the sun to quiet down as we head toward the New Year for that to happen.

i see, i wonder if the -pdo has any baring on it...like does a -pdo favor one type of ao as compared to a pos pdo

[am19psu]

i see, i wonder if the -pdo has any baring on it...like does a -pdo favor one type of ao as compared to a pos pdo

I'm not entirely sure. From a thermodynamic point of view, I would guess that a +PDO would favor more blocking in the Pac, which disrupts the polar jet (just like the +AMO does in the Atlantic), but that's strictly a tropospheric argument. I don't know how (if at all) the PDO affects the stratospheric configuration.

[Rainshadow]

i see, i wonder if the -pdo has any baring on it...like does a -pdo favor one type of ao as compared to a pos pdo

At least in terms of an index number the pdo was negative last winter (which probably comes easier with a nina). It really was the nao that was the driver last winter. just saw the post about how long the ao has been positive, the nao (as an index number) had a string of 16 consecutive negative months that ended the past February.

[NaoPos]

At least in terms of an index number the pdo was negative last winter (which probably comes easier with a nina). It really was the nao that was the driver last winter. just saw the post about how long the ao has been positive, the nao (as an index number) had a string of 16 consecutive negative months that ended the past February.

Isn't the pdo state usually a 30yr average? I know we recently switched to to -PDO with the warm pool bein established in the western pacific? If so, I woulnt think It acts like an ordinary teleconnector (such as a PBS ridge or block etc.)

On that note, not sure how accurate pdo measurements were back with the last 3 decade pdo cycle ? Not sure what the large scale forcing that the pdo in a negative state factors in globally?

[NaoPos]

post thanksgiving on the 0z GFS:

[NaoPos]

and that bowling ball becomes our new eastern canada PV: if anything was gonna change that pattern, that huge cut off would. ALso, notice the insane ridging out by Alaska/western canada.

[famartin]

Isn't the pdo state usually a 30yr average? I know we recently switched to to -PDO with the warm pool bein established in the western pacific? If so, I woulnt think It acts like an ordinary teleconnector (such as a PBS ridge or block etc.)

While the overall long-term PDO state does matter, monthly indices are computed.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[phlwx]

I hate to give credit to JB but IF the GFS/EC modeled early week storm verifies the 50-51 and 74-75 analogs may get some play...

The pattern has a somewhat similar but not as strong look to both years.

for those keeping score regarding December temps, 50 was colder than average, 74 was warmer. No correlation that the pattern would yield cold December but both years are Nina.

[Quakertown needs snow]

the local ski areas would love to see some cold lock in the next couple of weeks

[tombo82685]

Adam, is it alright i start a new thread.. maybe it will bring some good luck