Medium-long range thread

[tombo82685]

0z euro at day 10 is interesting. It may be the start of a pattern shift, but not fully. I wonder if you were to extropolate this out to days 11-15 that cut off low pumps the ridging into the greenland/baffin island region which then sends down a piece of cold air down from canada. I like seeing the +pna, but thats looks like its trying to get beaten back by the pig in alaska. If its not a stepd towards a colder pattern, after that trof moves through it looks like the cold air gets sealed off in canada and we get flooded with pacific air. nJust some food for thought. Going off the mjo it argues for a transient shot with it being in phase 2 by day 10 on its way to phase 3 then circle of death

[Rainshadow]

0z euro at day 10 is interesting. It may be the start of a pattern shift, but not fully. I wonder if you were to extropolate this out to days 11-15 that cut off low pumps the ridging into the greenland/baffin island region which then sends down a piece of cold air down from canada. I like seeing the +pna, but thats looks like its trying to get beaten back by the pig in alaska. If its not a stepd towards a colder pattern, after that trof moves through it looks like the cold air gets sealed off in canada and we get flooded with pacific air. nJust some food for thought. Going off the mjo it argues for a transient shot with it being in phase 2 by day 10 on its way to phase 3 then circle of death

Maybe a stair step down? While not necessarily cold, not a torch any longer. All the teleconnective indices have been rock solid warm of late, so any change has to make it relatively colder. Of course posting this as the normals continue to get colder is not exactly going out on a limb.

Quite a difference in this mjo wave vs the previous.

[tombo82685]

Maybe a stair step down? While not necessarily cold, not a torch any longer. All the teleconnective indices have been rock solid warm of late, so any change has to make it relatively colder. Of course posting this as the normals continue to get colder is not exactly going out on a limb.

Quite a difference in this mjo wave vs the previous.

yea the teleconnections have been brutal as of late. The gfs forecast continue to show in the 10 day range the nao and ao falling back to neutral or slightly negative, while pna going towards negative to slightly positive.. Not exactly cold, but normalcy for this time of year cold bring a chance of some snow..

[am19psu]

Past Turkey Day weekend (I still think Days 8-12 are cool/cold here):

[Rainshadow]

yea the teleconnections have been brutal as of late. The gfs forecast continue to show in the 10 day range the nao and ao falling back to neutral or slightly negative, while pna going towards negative to slightly positive.. Not exactly cold, but normalcy for this time of year cold bring a chance of some snow..

From a forecasting/confidence perspective the day 7 tele outlooks have had a fairly high correlation which hopefully will continue through the winter, no fantasy pattern changes that go pfft as they get closer.

[phlwx]

'99 has come up as a bit of an analog here of late in that it was very warm in November in the Upper Midwest, 2nd year Nina...given we're in a more blocky long-term regime we probably don't torch as much in the coming winter as we did in '99-'00 but that winter was still pretty decent (21" snow) despite the uber torch in early December.

You'll notice the temp pattern for the end of November and beginning of December. While not a perfect fit (I don't think we have as persistent a torch the next couple of weeks and there will be some variety in temps in the warm pattern), it took until 12/23 for the pattern to finally cool down for a decent stretch (10 days). The only bad part about this was early January 2000 torched (60's) before finally "locking" in cold around Mid January for about 3 1/2 weeks...which was also when most of the snow fell here for the winter.

Like I said, I don't think we're as warm as much overall but I do think the pattern has some '99 in its look -- 60's are certainly doable a few more times the next few weeks before winter legitimately hits.

[Quakertown needs snow]

Past Turkey Day weekend (I still think Days 8-12 are cool/cold here):

of course it will be cold then due to snow pack from dec.5th

[Feb]

http://weatherworld.psu.edu/

I'm not sure if any of you have followed this show over the past many years but i have been watching it from the time i was a little kid. Every mid month they do a climate watch segment where the issue a forecast for the next 30 days or so. This past Wednesday they issued their call for now until December 21st. Mild through December 4th or so and then a change to colder. Also said an area wide snowfall will occur. You can watch it yourself. Just click the link and click Climate Watch.

[Rainshadow]

'99 has come up as a bit of an analog here of late in that it was very warm in November in the Upper Midwest, 2nd year Nina...given we're in a more blocky long-term regime we probably don't torch as much in the coming winter as we did in '99-'00 but that winter was still pretty decent (21" snow) despite the uber torch in early December.

You'll notice the temp pattern for the end of November and beginning of December. While not a perfect fit (I don't think we have as persistent a torch the next couple of weeks and there will be some variety in temps in the warm pattern), it took until 12/23 for the pattern to finally cool down for a decent stretch (10 days). The only bad part about this was early January 2000 torched (60's) before finally "locking" in cold around Mid January for about 3 1/2 weeks...which was also when most of the snow fell here for the winter.

Like I said, I don't think we're as warm as much overall but I do think the pattern has some '99 in its look -- 60's are certainly doable a few more times the next few weeks before winter legitimately hits.

A weaker nina version of 99-00 wouldn't be too bad, although I could do without a surprise storm (as in the forecasting end of it). Last two weeks the nina weakened to weak again in 3.4 and the cfs which has been most bullish has warmed its jets somewhat.

[tombo82685]

0z euro in the long range looks pretty cruddy. Seals off all the cold air in canada, as the conus, is under pacific flow. It is though trying to pop a -nao, though its not really west based yet. +ao is hurting the cold flow, all the cold air is locked up by the north pole. So a -nao may not do any justice.

[Rainshadow]

0z euro in the long range looks pretty cruddy. Seals off all the cold air in canada, as the conus, is under pacific flow. It is though trying to pop a -nao, though its not really west based yet. +ao is hurting the cold flow, all the cold air is locked up by the north pole. So a -nao may not do any justice.

It does give us about half an inch to inch of snow when the trof passes over us early Thanksgiving morning.

[tombo82685]

It does give us about half an inch to inch of snow when the trof passes over us early Thanksgiving morning.

sound the alarms...tony, i get confused on this. When the ao+ that means the pv is located over the pole? or is it the other way around...

[am19psu]

sound the alarms...tony, i get confused on this. When the ao+ that means the pv is located over the pole? or is it the other way around...

+AO has the polar vortex over the pole.

[tombo82685]

+AO has the polar vortex over the pole.

alright thats what i thought, thanks adam

[Rainshadow]

alright thats what i thought, thanks adam

ao/nao/epo/wpo positive = warm

pna positve = cold

I wish they were all the same.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

dont we want the AO to be positive during the fall months though? building up the cold air up in the pole and northern Canada...so when it does flip to -AO, the cold air pours in. ?

[tombo82685]

gfs looks dreadful in the long range, basically the same as the 0z euro...pacific dominated flow, with a hugely +ao...as long as we are warm ray better be warm to

[mattinpa]

gfs looks dreadful in the long range, basically the same as the 0z euro...pacific dominated flow, with a hugely +ao...as long as we are warm ray better be warm to

It still looks to be getting better in stages. End of the run isn't quite cold enough for snow, but it is better, Plus, it will change a million times.

I hope it is overdoing the rain before Thanksgiving.

[am19psu]

[NJwinter23]

'99 has come up as a bit of an analog here of late in that it was very warm in November in the Upper Midwest, 2nd year Nina...given we're in a more blocky long-term regime we probably don't torch as much in the coming winter as we did in '99-'00 but that winter was still pretty decent (21" snow) despite the uber torch in early December.

You'll notice the temp pattern for the end of November and beginning of December. While not a perfect fit (I don't think we have as persistent a torch the next couple of weeks and there will be some variety in temps in the warm pattern), it took until 12/23 for the pattern to finally cool down for a decent stretch (10 days). The only bad part about this was early January 2000 torched (60's) before finally "locking" in cold around Mid January for about 3 1/2 weeks...which was also when most of the snow fell here for the winter.

Like I said, I don't think we're as warm as much overall but I do think the pattern has some '99 in its look -- 60's are certainly doable a few more times the next few weeks before winter legitimately hits.

eeeeek...don't be fooled by the 21", that winter was pretty terrible. Though it did have an excellent 2 week period in late Jan capped by the surprise 1/25 storm, the rest of the winter was torch city. As mentioned, the forcings that be are very different these days from the terrible late 90s when we couldnt buy any form of blocking getting even close to the polar regions.

[easternsnowman]

long range gfs and euro it's a lock then!

[tombo82685]

after that trof kicks out days 10-11, torch may be an understatement. Positive thing on the euro is is trying to build higher hgts into greenland and baffin island areas. Also, the pv over alaska is gone, and actually is building some higher hgts towards alska probably dropping the epo towards neutral

[kdskidoo]

well if we have to go through a crappy pattern, and we always do at some point during winter, we may as well get it out of the way now and then hopefully by the time we get to when we're supposed to have cold and snow things will improve. of course we could just stay in a crappy pattern all winter

[usedtobe]

ao/nao/epo/wpo positive = warm

pna positve = cold

I wish they were all the same.

AO neutral during a la nina is usually warm unless you can get a strong pna or negative epo pattern. The models still don't show the epo going negative but, they do hint at a weakening of the Ak vortex which would head it towards lower values. Al elast we should get some nice golf weather in.

[CoastalWx]

The european models (both UK and EC) continue to shift the wave through P4-5 and into p6. That american models don't seem as bullish right now. IMO, I really would like to see a modest wave go into p6 and eventually 7 so that we can try to get some tropical forcing help, to dislodge the vortex up north. All the ensembles look somewhat better, but it still is no where near ideal, even at the end of their runs. Some runs show ridging into the GOA and western Canada. That's nice, but we still have lower heights across AK and the EC ensembles of troughing in the sw which will try and pump up the se ridge. Of course it doesn't mean some can sneak in 1 or 2 snow events, but the overall pattern still looks rather balmy for many in the east and southeast.

[CoastalWx]

The euro ensembles do try to set up for a potential gradient pattern with colder Canadian air trying to come south, but not going too far as the trough over the sw actts to pump up heights in the East. At least there is some weak ridging over western Canada.

[Feb]

The euro ensembles do try to set up for a potential gradient pattern with colder Canadian air trying to come south, but not going too far as the trough over the sw actts to pump up heights in the East. At least there is some weak ridging over western Canada.

Thank you for adding to our regions discussion. You are one of my favorite mets on here. I enjoy reading your thoughts.

[Rainshadow]

well if we have to go through a crappy pattern, and we always do at some point during winter, we may as well get it out of the way now and then hopefully by the time we get to when we're supposed to have cold and snow things will improve. of course we could just stay in a crappy pattern all winter

I wouldn't think we'd have a predominately positive nao or positive nao west this upcoming winter given the qbo, the cycle we're in and the antecedent nf ppol. I'd venture a guess with the -pdo that the pacific could not be as accommodating in the temperate zone with the tropics a weak nina that's normally close to snowfall climo. So to put another foot in my mouth we'll see what happens in December, this current pattern by the start of the month will be pretty old, will it be a reload or a 4 to 6 week change?

[phlwx]

It does give us about half an inch to inch of snow when the trof passes over us early Thanksgiving morning.

Those back edge snows happen about as often as Andy Reid doesn't botch his timeouts.

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn't think we'd have a predominately positive nao or positive nao west this upcoming winter given the qbo, the cycle we're in and the antecedent nf ppol. I'd venture a guess with the -pdo that the pacific could not be as accommodating in the temperate zone with the tropics a weak nina that's normally close to snowfall climo. So to put another foot in my mouth we'll see what happens in December, this current pattern by the start of the month will be pretty old, will it be a reload or a 4 to 6 week change?

I'll put my foot in my mouth too and say it may avg negative, but weakly so. Again, I'm not a long range guru, but just my guess. I'm hoping in a few weeks we'll see some signs of it, or at the very least...get that dam AK trough out of there and have the EPO tank.