phlwx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The meteorologist formerly known as SouthlandWx posted this on FB today... have no idea if he's right but thought it was pretty funny. You guys might not, though... Hopefully it only torches in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The statistical forecasts from Paul Roundy haven't really budged though. The hang up appears to be remnant convection near the dateline when the IO gets going again. I'm on tape delay from Walt about what Paul says. I'd venture a post but end up being wrong anyway. Looks like the MJO perked up a bit the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I'm on tape delay from Walt about what Paul says. I'd venture a post but end up being wrong anyway. Looks like the MJO perked up a bit the last day. Pfft, like that's ever stopped me before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I was talking more about post-Thanksgiving. I don't see a chance for sustained cold until we get the MJO back around to the IO around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Don't beat around the bush, say what you mean. I'm kind of surprised the GFS has not been colder or showed colder solutions, its almost as if the +EPO is blocking any MJO influence from leaving the tropics or the GFS which has been more bullish about the strength of the MJO is not going to verify. Either way the longer long range part of the model seems inconsistent, something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 the euro ensembles are more encouraging than the gfs with developing a -nao. that pattern looks like its trying to pinch off a cold pool that would sink south that would make the conus cold. Still would like to see a +pna get going, which isnt shown here, though it is trying to get the epo towards neutral or maybe slightly negative here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Don't beat around the bush, say what you mean. I'm kind of surprised the GFS has not been colder or showed colder solutions, its almost as if the +EPO is blocking any MJO influence from leaving the tropics or the GFS which has been more bullish about the strength of the MJO is not going to verify. Either way the longer long range part of the model seems inconsistent, something has to give. I think the wave pattern shown in the models actually does show the MJO P2 type solution post-Thanksgiving, but there is no cold air for the GL trough/Davis Straits ridge to tap into. So we get a 1-3 day cool down to slightly below, then torch again as the MJO moves into P3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 the euro ensembles are more encouraging than the gfs with developing a -nao. that pattern looks like its trying to pinch off a cold pool that would sink south that would make the conus cold. Still would like to see a +pna get going, which isnt shown here, though it is trying to get the epo towards neutral or maybe slightly negative here It's encouraging to an extent. But with that pig of a PV sitting in Alaska, don't bet on anything too promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 It's encouraging to an extent. But with that pig of a PV sitting in Alaska, don't bet on anything too promising. yea the pv sitting there is the kiss of death. But the map here has some ridging extending into alaska displacing the pv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 this thread is so depressing . glad i have pic's from october to chear me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 this thread is so depressing . glad i have pic's from october to chear me up wait till its christmas and we are still waiting on the cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 wait till its christmas and we are still waiting on the cold.... xmas 2011 or 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 xmas 2011 or 2012? maybe both lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 maybe both lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I think the wave pattern shown in the models actually does show the MJO P2 type solution post-Thanksgiving, but there is no cold air for the GL trough/Davis Straits ridge to tap into. So we get a 1-3 day cool down to slightly below, then torch again as the MJO moves into P3. So like 40's for highs at the end of November. Transient "cold" FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Who care about cold just snow. Lately we usually get most of our snow in bad patterns while good pattern are cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Today's 12z Euro ensembles are for the start of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Today's 12z Euro ensembles are for the start of December. I'm assuming this isn't a freebie site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 I'm assuming this isn't a freebie site? the euro weeklies, last time i saw them which was about a week ago, showed mild through end of november, then seasonal first week of dec... 12z day 10 euro ens is trying to get a colder pattern, but still not their. To much of a se ridge and -pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I'm assuming this isn't a freebie site? naso much. We cool off Sunday-Tuesday post Turkey Day and then warm back up...Wednesday may be the transition day but it looks warm(er) by 12/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Today's 12z Euro ensembles are for the start of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 id rather waste the first part of december on warmth, than the holidays season into january... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 id rather waste the first part of december on warmth, than the holidays season into january... Agreed. January is much more enjoyable with a snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well in Jan it's always a thaw.. And feb it's the sun angle.... (what else could we fill this thread up with with this type weather/non existent !) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 naso much. We cool off Sunday-Tuesday post Turkey Day and then warm back up...Wednesday may be the transition day but it looks warm(er) by 12/1. Friday-Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Friday-Tuesday? I'll go Saturday-Wednesday. Friday might be a midnight high (12 AM) and screw with departures. (i did see the op...a bit faster than the GFS...I'll split the difference for now and call it a day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The models have trouble from a few days out and now we;re talking next month....lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The models have trouble from a few days out and now we;re talking next month....lol! Who says you only need to look at models for medium range forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Who says you only need to look at models for medium range forecasts? I'm saying that more than 10 days out is where it gets more difficult. Another thing to keep in mind is that november temps over the last 10 years are more than a degree warmer than even the 1981-2010 averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 a long ways off, but the 0z euro actually has some snow and ice in the pocs and possibly down into the lehigh valley t giving night into black friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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