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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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The statistical forecasts from Paul Roundy haven't really budged though. The hang up appears to be remnant convection near the dateline when the IO gets going again.

I'm on tape delay from Walt about what Paul says. I'd venture a post but end up being wrong anyway. Looks like the MJO perked up a bit the last day.

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Don't beat around the bush, say what you mean. ;)

I'm kind of surprised the GFS has not been colder or showed colder solutions, its almost as if the +EPO is blocking any MJO influence from leaving the tropics or the GFS which has been more bullish about the strength of the MJO is not going to verify. Either way the longer long range part of the model seems inconsistent, something has to give.

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the euro ensembles are more encouraging than the gfs with developing a -nao. that pattern looks like its trying to pinch off a cold pool that would sink south that would make the conus cold. Still would like to see a +pna get going, which isnt shown here, though it is trying to get the epo towards neutral or maybe slightly negative here

00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNH240.gif

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Don't beat around the bush, say what you mean. ;)

I'm kind of surprised the GFS has not been colder or showed colder solutions, its almost as if the +EPO is blocking any MJO influence from leaving the tropics or the GFS which has been more bullish about the strength of the MJO is not going to verify. Either way the longer long range part of the model seems inconsistent, something has to give.

I think the wave pattern shown in the models actually does show the MJO P2 type solution post-Thanksgiving, but there is no cold air for the GL trough/Davis Straits ridge to tap into. So we get a 1-3 day cool down to slightly below, then torch again as the MJO moves into P3.

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the euro ensembles are more encouraging than the gfs with developing a -nao. that pattern looks like its trying to pinch off a cold pool that would sink south that would make the conus cold. Still would like to see a +pna get going, which isnt shown here, though it is trying to get the epo towards neutral or maybe slightly negative here

00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNH240.gif

It's encouraging to an extent.

But with that pig of a PV sitting in Alaska, don't bet on anything too promising.

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I think the wave pattern shown in the models actually does show the MJO P2 type solution post-Thanksgiving, but there is no cold air for the GL trough/Davis Straits ridge to tap into. So we get a 1-3 day cool down to slightly below, then torch again as the MJO moves into P3.

So like 40's for highs at the end of November. Transient "cold" FTW!

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Who says you only need to look at models for medium range forecasts?

I'm saying that more than 10 days out is where it gets more difficult. Another thing to keep in mind is that november temps over the last 10 years are more than a degree warmer than even the 1981-2010 averages.

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