famartin Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Strong winter for sure in Edison. I still expect to get some more snow this season hopefully. People informing winter is over, just because the pattern breakdowns makes me a tad angy. DT made a decent post on the subject. You live in central NJ so you really should remember to keep your expectations low, no matter what's happened up til now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 We had an amazing 8 week run of near completely solid cold and a 5 week run of pretty impressive snows. You don't get that type of consistency in the pattern in our region and compared to where we were in the 90's, 2001-2, etc. this is certainly one of the better winters for the Philadelphia region in general. If winter has to end in mid February as the "price" we paid for that kind of a run, so be it. It was a great run...enjoy it, appreciate it, and don't whine about a mid February warm up. We've had much worse winters to contend with...don't get spoiled by the three year run we've had because you never know when the next 72-73 shows up. FWIW, it probably snows again before winter is over -- when we've had these types of February thaws we have had March snowfalls (not storms necessarily) -- 1990, 1994, 2001, 2004, 2009 are years where we hit 60 in Feb and then it snowed in March and/or April. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 We had an amazing 8 week run of near completely solid cold and a 5 week run of pretty impressive snows. You don't get that type of consistency in the pattern in our region and compared to where we were in the 90's, 2001-2, etc. this is certainly one of the better winters for the Philadelphia region in general. If winter has to end in mid February as the "price" we paid for that kind of a run, so be it. It was a great run...enjoy it, appreciate it, and don't whine about a mid February warm up. We've had much worse winters to contend with...don't get spoiled by the three year run we've had because you never know when the next 72-73 shows up. FWIW, it probably snows again before winter is over -- when we've had these types of February thaws we have had March snowfalls (not storms necessarily) -- 1990, 1994, 2001, 2004, 2009 are years where we hit 60 in Feb and then it snowed in March and/or April. seems to me that you are forgetting another march date............ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 FWIW, it probably snows again before winter is over -- when we've had these types of February thaws we have had March snowfalls (not storms necessarily) -- 1990, 1994, 2001, 2004, 2009 are years where we hit 60 in Feb and then it snowed in March and/or April. Despite what the Euro weeklies are showing, this fits well with typical Nina climatology as well. HM has speculated it has to do with the buildup of ozone during the winter months because strat warming events don't happen often in Ninas. I'm not entirely sure if that applies to this winter since we had a -AO for most of December/January, but it was due to planetary wave disruption instead of solar induced warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 seems to me that you are forgetting another march date............ http://en.wikipedia...._of_the_Century He was going for storms that happened after hitting 60 in February... there were no 60s in February 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Strong winter for sure in Edison. I still expect to get some more snow this season hopefully. People informing winter is over, just because the pattern breakdowns makes me a tad angy. DT made a decent post on the subject. Out of curiosity, who has said winter is over? I've not seen anyone say that in this thread or on the main board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 We had an amazing 8 week run of near completely solid cold and a 5 week run of pretty impressive snows. You don't get that type of consistency in the pattern in our region and compared to where we were in the 90's, 2001-2, etc. this is certainly one of the better winters for the Philadelphia region in general. If winter has to end in mid February as the "price" we paid for that kind of a run, so be it. It was a great run...enjoy it, appreciate it, and don't whine about a mid February warm up. We've had much worse winters to contend with...don't get spoiled by the three year run we've had because you never know when the next 72-73 shows up. FWIW, it probably snows again before winter is over -- when we've had these types of February thaws we have had March snowfalls (not storms necessarily) -- 1990, 1994, 2001, 2004, 2009 are years where we hit 60 in Feb and then it snowed in March and/or April. Of course its easy to list lots of February's where it hits 60 since its actually rather common. Here's the max temps in February during the last 30 years, and the snowfall in the following March and April: 1981 68 8.8 1982 62 5.1 1983 59 2.8 1984 64 10.3 1985 74 T 1986 56 T 1987 50 T 1988 65 T 1989 66 2.4 1990 67 4.8 1991 69 0.7 1992 67 2.5 1993 55 12.4 1994 61 4.9 1995 58 T 1996 66 9.6 1997 74 7.1 1998 62 0.1 1999 70 4.9 2000 69 1.6 2001 62 1.8 2002 70 T 2003 48 2.0 2004 63 4.0 2005 62 1.5 2006 62 0.1 2007 50 4.7 2008 68 T 2009 69 9.0 2010 46 T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Out of curiosity, who has said winter is over? I've not seen anyone say that in this thread or on the main board. DT made a long post on his website that the back of winter is essentially broken, agreeing with JB. He doesn't think the pattern is coming back, from what I digested from his post. He didn't say there wouldn't be ANY more cold and snow... just that the pattern is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_276l.gif Only 12 days away. The 12z GFS brings the cold back earlier this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 He was going for storms that happened after hitting 60 in February... there were no 60s in February 1993. yeah....i don't know what i was thinking.......the highest temp was 54 degrees on 2/5/93.....my bad.....i'm sure that subconsciously i just wanted to post that link........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_276l.gif Only 12 days away. The 12z GFS brings the cold back earlier this run. First run in a while that shows a decent snow chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 First run in a while that shows a decent snow chance. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html#picture 10 day Euro looks chilly also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Today's Euro keeps the warm-up brief - back to winter by day 10 with a snowstorm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Over/under on Philly's warmest temp of 60.5 during the next 7 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture 10 day Euro looks chilly also. That looks rather average for mid/late Feb for PA to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Over/under on Philly's warmest temp of 60.5 during the next 7 days? over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 That looks rather average for mid/late Feb for PA to be honest. Considering we will be in the 60's before hand, low to mid 40's would be chilly. Notice i did say chilly, not freaking cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Over/under on Philly's warmest temp of 60.5 during the next 7 days? Over. With a southwest flow on Friday with bright sunshine I think Philly hits mid 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 day 8-9 has a rain going over to snow with a gradient type pattern...with us being on the cold side of the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 day 8-9 has a rain going over to snow with a gradient type pattern...with us being on the cold side of the boundary This is a typical pattern after this 60 degree indian thaw. But what concerns me is that after the passage of this cold front in 10-15 days- watch out-- a big snow storm may appear in the models when the cold quebec high gets back in place. Usually a good Miller A forms along the tail end of the cold front in the gulf. Time and time again I have seen this and if the models are hinting this now, watch out. This time you are playing with a lot of gulf moisture. Check out my blog- I called for this back in November before winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 day 8-9 has a rain going over to snow with a gradient type pattern...with us being on the cold side of the boundary Thanks for the update Mr. tombo. Just what i was hoping hear this afternoon. read in the midatlantic thread that LC is deeply worried about snow/ice threat after this indian summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 day 8-9 has a rain going over to snow with a gradient type pattern...with us being on the cold side of the boundary For I-95 its maybe an inch of snow. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 This is a typical pattern after this 60 degree indian thaw. But what concerns me is that after the passage of this cold front in 10-15 days- watch out-- a big snow storm may appear in the models when the cold quebec high gets back in place. Usually a good Miller A forms along the tail end of the cold front in the gulf. Time and time again I have seen this and if the models are hinting this now, watch out. This time you are playing with a lot of gulf moisture. Check out my blog- I called for this back in November before winter is over. The GFS, of course, is significantly different with that time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 For I-95 its maybe an inch of snow. Maybe. There is new moisture forming though in the gulf and SE at 10 day. Of course in 12 hours the euro might show sunshine and 70 for the same time period so no use in worrying about details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 There is new moisture forming though in the gulf and SE at 10 day. Of course in 12 hours the euro might show sunshine and 70 for the same time period so no use in worrying about details. The posts in this thread make it seem like there's been no chance at all on the models of any snow during the next 10-16 days, when in fact both the GFS and EC have been showing glancing blows and near misses for several days. Of course, they're all very marginal temp wise... such that if they were more direct hits they'd likely be mix or rain. Its gonna be hard for you guys to get any good storms with the raging negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 The posts in this thread make it seem like there's been no chance at all on the models of any snow during the next 10-16 days, when in fact both the GFS and EC have been showing glancing blows and near misses for several days. Of course, they're all very marginal temp wise... such that if they were more direct hits they'd likely be mix or rain. Its gonna be hard for you guys to get any good storms with the raging negative PNA. only way to counter that is a good -nao, like we had earlier, but that isnt forecasted to happen either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 only way to counter that is a good -nao, like we had earlier, but that isnt forecasted to happen either. GEFS have -nao from Feb. 16-March. And have showed this for several runs in a row. Euro ensembles are inconsistent and are going back and forth every run. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zensnao.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 GEFS have -nao from Feb. 16-March. And have showed this for several runs in a row. Euro ensembles are inconsistent and are going back and forth every run. http://raleighwx.ame...e/12zensnao.gif yea but i wonder if thats all purely east based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 yea but i wonder if thats all purely east based It is but it's trying to move west by Feb. 20th. Note that it also occurs right when this overrunning threat is modeled. P.S. 18z GFS continues to show day 8-9 overrunning with a miller b coastal transfer this time. That's at least 6 runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 It is but it's trying to move west by Feb. 20th. Note that it also occurs right when this overrunning threat is modeled. P.S. 18z GFS continues to show day 8-9 overrunning with a miller b coastal transfer this time. That's at least 6 runs in a row. yea i made a remark about it like 3-4 days ago and did some maps.. Granted its way out in time, but whats being shown on the gfs is mainly rain for phl and burbs with a little snow. The surface temps are to warm. theoretically it could be snow, but it would be a non accumulating snow. Up in abe to rdg region they do a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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