am19psu Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Gotcha. That's what I get for jumping in after a long hiatus and not reading enough lol. Seems post T-day is the more likely time for anything notable. I worry the forecast could still trend a little colder in the day 8-15 time frame compared to some of the forecasts out there, but it's not "noteworthy" cold by any means yet. More just removing some of the strong warmth and adding a little variability. Long term, hard not to like the buildup of cold in western Canada. While it doesn't have to invade the U.S, I'd be surprised if we don't hear from it at some point as we roll toward early Dec. It's doing what it should this time of year....laying the foundation down to help refrigerate the airmass. I'm on the post T-day train as well, but looks like we may get a transient shot or two of some cold. I did notice the trend in some of the runs to bring the first wave of cold in the 18-20th timeframe. Agree with both of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 the pacific needs to do a complete reversal, the -pna is hurting things right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Agree with both of you Western Canada laying the ground for some serious clippers in early December. Once the Upper Midwest is snow covered, the clipper train will begin. Its like the clipper train lays the pipeline for some really cold air to envelope us around Christmas. I will take 1-3 inch clipper snows anytime- easier to shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Keeping the warmth going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Keeping the warmth going. euro long range has a warm bias, besides it's the euro it can't be wrong....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 euro long range has a warm bias, besides it's the euro it can't be wrong....lol The gfs (on the right) is exactly the same as the euro (on the left). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 the pacific needs to do a complete reversal, the -pna is hurting things right now. We could have a rockin' January (might as well pull a weenie phrase or two out of the bag while we're at it). I'm not complaining personally since I thought the locked-in cold would hit Dec 20th or so and that we would maintain a mild/transitional pattern until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Well the 0z runs keep it warm. I think we can throw out the "by thanksgiving" timeframe. I'm more or less inclined to say by dec 15th. Also, I'm not liking the way the scandanavian ridge keeps persisting. But the way things have been going lately with patterns locking in for a while, I'm not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Well the 0z runs keep it warm. I think we can throw out the "by thanksgiving" timeframe. I'm more or less inclined to say by dec 15th. Also, I'm not liking the way the scandanavian ridge keeps persisting. But the way things have been going lately with patterns locking in for a while, I'm not surprised. I was under the impression that most long range winter outlooks were calling for below normal temps in December. This thread is awful for anyone that is seeking cold temps and hopes of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Even though the forecast consensus calls for a "cold" December it doesn't mean weather necessarily goes ice box cold on 12/1...it can be "typical" or just above normal until mid month and then get colder than average after the midpoint for December to end up being a "cold" month. Folks gotta keep in mind that the average high on 12/1 is 50 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Even though the forecast consensus calls for a "cold" December it doesn't mean weather necessarily goes ice box cold on 12/1...it can be "typical" or just above normal until mid month and then get colder than average after the midpoint for December to end up being a "cold" month. Folks gotta keep in mind that the average high on 12/1 is 50 degrees. Excellent point. Honestly, any sustained cold or measureable snow before Jan 1st in this region I consider an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Dec. 5th cancel, for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Dec. 5th cancel, for now No way cancel. Almost 30 days away and you believe these models? Who would have picked the Haloweeenie snow storm 30 days in advance? Horsesh*& I say. Maybe two weeks out, I might believe it with full model consensus across the board. One must go with the yearly trends and that trend has been an accumulating snow event between December 5 thru December 8 - usually the first snow event for our area also known as the Pearl Harbor Snow Event. Warm to some is cold to others. I will take 40 degree weather in the Valley on December 1. Seven day s later the bottom usually falls out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Excellent point. Honestly, any sustained cold or measureable snow before Jan 1st in this region I consider an anomaly. Philly has recorded 71" of snow in DEC over the past 11 yrs, for this region that would hardly be considered an anomaly. For a frame of reference JAN snow over the same timeframe is 73.3". MAR is quickly becoming the anomaly month from a snowfall standpoint - only 20.9" in the past 11yrs. Based on the recent trends we should certainly expect snow in DEC, the days of being told about unrealistic DEC snowfall expectations & MAR is snowier than DEC are over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Philly has recorded 71" of snow in DEC over the past 11 yrs, for this region that would hardly be considered an anomaly. For a frame of reference JAN snow over the same timeframe is 73.3". MAR is quickly becoming the anomaly month from a snowfall standpoint - only 20.9" in the past 11yrs. Based on the recent trends we should certainly expect snow in DEC, the days of being told about unrealistic DEC snowfall expectations & MAR is snowier than DEC are over. I'm giving "my opinion" on snow and cold before Jan 1st, I'm not basing it on numbers. Heck, I've only lived around here for the past 6 years. Just don't want people to get bent out of shape over a lack of cold and snow if it doesn't materialize over the next 3-6 weeks. Maybe I should have left my previous comment for the banter thread. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 people also has forgotten that last yr we had a warm november and it switched the first week of dec.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Dec. 5th cancel, for now No way cancel. Almost 30 days away and you believe these models? Who would have picked the Haloweeenie snow storm 30 days in advance? Horsesh*& I say. Maybe two weeks out, I might believe it with full model consensus across the board. One must go with the yearly trends and that trend has been an accumulating snow event between December 5 thru December 8 - usually the first snow event for our area also known as the Pearl Harbor Snow Event. Warm to some is cold to others. I will take 40 degree weather in the Valley on December 1. Seven day s later the bottom usually falls out i said "for now" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Philly has recorded 71" of snow in DEC over the past 11 yrs, for this region that would hardly be considered an anomaly. For a frame of reference JAN snow over the same timeframe is 73.3". MAR is quickly becoming the anomaly month from a snowfall standpoint - only 20.9" in the past 11yrs. Based on the recent trends we should certainly expect snow in DEC, the days of being told about unrealistic DEC snowfall expectations & MAR is snowier than DEC are over. can you post your PHL data for snow and temps again. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 At least things look colder at the end of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 At least things look colder at the end of November. LC agrees. Bullish on east coast storm followed by cold post Thanksgiving. JB in similar camp with any snow west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 LC agrees. Bullish on east coast storm followed by cold post Thanksgiving. JB in similar camp with any snow west of the Apps. Yesterday's 12z GFS had this as an apps runner so take any solution with a pretty large grain of salt. Any "cold" over the next couple of weeks will be 1-2 day shots...nothing locked/loaded. Pattern and MJO trends aren't (yet) supporting a locked-in cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 BTW, while I guess it's still possible, I would change this thread to read "more tropical action unlikely" or something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 BTW, while I guess it's still possible, I would change this thread to read "more tropical action unlikely" or something similar. Tracking Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 12z euro torches days 8-10. 70+ possible again next monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 HM This is for the weenies The AAM is sliding back down again, solidifying the RNA. Usually, this whole thing retrogrades and that will put the trough back along the East Coast again as we enter December. It is going to take a ridiculous +EPO / Alaskan PV to keep the NAO from going deeply negative which is what the models are showing in the extended. Once this feature retrogrades and the ridge comes back across the Rockies, we may get a late-October styled +h5 anomaly again. I am still impressed with the pattern basically now through the next 7 days. This is a very 1955-like picture with a deep NAO pattern and a transpolar ridge. http://www.esrl.noaa.../images/nao.png CPC charts are close to ludicrous in terms of NAO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Yesterday's 12z GFS had this as an apps runner so take any solution with a pretty large grain of salt. Any "cold" over the next couple of weeks will be 1-2 day shots...nothing locked/loaded. Pattern and MJO trends aren't (yet) supporting a locked-in cool down. The GFS's couple of sigmas bullish mjo cold outlook from last week looks like its hanging on by a thread now, so we might have to look elsewhere for a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 12z euro torches days 8-10. 70+ possible again next monday? I could see why it did, can't get much torchier with the teleconnections than this: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zecmwfensindices.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The GFS's couple of sigmas bullish mjo cold outlook from last week looks like its hanging on by a thread now, so we might have to look elsewhere for a pattern change. The statistical forecasts from Paul Roundy haven't really budged though. The hang up appears to be remnant convection near the dateline when the IO gets going again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The meteorologist formerly known as SouthlandWx posted this on FB today... have no idea if he's right but thought it was pretty funny. You guys might not, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 doesn't look to good on the euro at day 10. As long as that pv is centered over alaska kiss any sustained cold goodbye...combine that with a +nao and its pretty toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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