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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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Gotcha. That's what I get for jumping in after a long hiatus and not reading enough lol.

Seems post T-day is the more likely time for anything notable. I worry the forecast could still trend a little colder in the day 8-15 time frame compared to some of the forecasts out there, but it's not "noteworthy" cold by any means yet. More just removing some of the strong warmth and adding a little variability. Long term, hard not to like the buildup of cold in western Canada. While it doesn't have to invade the U.S, I'd be surprised if we don't hear from it at some point as we roll toward early Dec.

It's doing what it should this time of year....laying the foundation down to help refrigerate the airmass. :snowman:

I'm on the post T-day train as well, but looks like we may get a transient shot or two of some cold. I did notice the trend in some of the runs to bring the first wave of cold in the 18-20th timeframe.

Agree with both of you

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Agree with both of you

Western Canada laying the ground for some serious clippers in early December. Once the Upper Midwest is snow covered, the clipper train will begin. Its like the clipper train lays the pipeline for some really cold air to envelope us around Christmas. I will take 1-3 inch clipper snows anytime- easier to shovel

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the pacific needs to do a complete reversal, the -pna is hurting things right now.

We could have a rockin' January arrowheadsmiley.png

(might as well pull a weenie phrase or two out of the bag while we're at it).

I'm not complaining personally since I thought the locked-in cold would hit Dec 20th or so and that we would maintain a mild/transitional pattern until then.

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Well the 0z runs keep it warm. I think we can throw out the "by thanksgiving" timeframe.

I'm more or less inclined to say by dec 15th.

Also, I'm not liking the way the scandanavian ridge keeps persisting. But the way things have been going lately with patterns locking in for a while, I'm not surprised.

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Well the 0z runs keep it warm. I think we can throw out the "by thanksgiving" timeframe.

I'm more or less inclined to say by dec 15th.

Also, I'm not liking the way the scandanavian ridge keeps persisting. But the way things have been going lately with patterns locking in for a while, I'm not surprised.

I was under the impression that most long range winter outlooks were calling for below normal temps in December.

This thread is awful for anyone that is seeking cold temps and hopes of snow.Snowman.gif

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Even though the forecast consensus calls for a "cold" December it doesn't mean weather necessarily goes ice box cold on 12/1...it can be "typical" or just above normal until mid month and then get colder than average after the midpoint for December to end up being a "cold" month.

Folks gotta keep in mind that the average high on 12/1 is 50 degrees. popcorn.gif

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Even though the forecast consensus calls for a "cold" December it doesn't mean weather necessarily goes ice box cold on 12/1...it can be "typical" or just above normal until mid month and then get colder than average after the midpoint for December to end up being a "cold" month.

Folks gotta keep in mind that the average high on 12/1 is 50 degrees. popcorn.gif

Excellent point. Honestly, any sustained cold or measureable snow before Jan 1st in this region I consider an anomaly.

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Dec. 5th cancel, for now ;)

No way cancel. Almost 30 days away and you believe these models? Who would have picked the Haloweeenie snow storm 30 days in advance? Horsesh*& I say. Maybe two weeks out, I might believe it with full model consensus across the board. One must go with the yearly trends and that trend has been an accumulating snow event between December 5 thru December 8 - usually the first snow event for our area also known as the Pearl Harbor Snow Event. Warm to some is cold to others. I will take 40 degree weather in the Valley on December 1. Seven day s later the bottom usually falls outwhistle.gifSnowman.gif

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Excellent point. Honestly, any sustained cold or measureable snow before Jan 1st in this region I consider an anomaly.

Philly has recorded 71" of snow in DEC over the past 11 yrs, for this region that would hardly be considered an anomaly. For a frame of reference JAN snow over the same timeframe is 73.3". MAR is quickly becoming the anomaly month from a snowfall standpoint - only 20.9" in the past 11yrs.

Based on the recent trends we should certainly expect snow in DEC, the days of being told about unrealistic DEC snowfall expectations & MAR is snowier than DEC are over.

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Philly has recorded 71" of snow in DEC over the past 11 yrs, for this region that would hardly be considered an anomaly. For a frame of reference JAN snow over the same timeframe is 73.3". MAR is quickly becoming the anomaly month from a snowfall standpoint - only 20.9" in the past 11yrs.

Based on the recent trends we should certainly expect snow in DEC, the days of being told about unrealistic DEC snowfall expectations & MAR is snowier than DEC are over.

I'm giving "my opinion" on snow and cold before Jan 1st, I'm not basing it on numbers. Heck, I've only lived around here for the past 6 years. Just don't want people to get bent out of shape over a lack of cold and snow if it doesn't materialize over the next 3-6 weeks. Maybe I should have left my previous comment for the banter thread. My bad.

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Dec. 5th cancel, for now ;)

No way cancel. Almost 30 days away and you believe these models? Who would have picked the Haloweeenie snow storm 30 days in advance? Horsesh*& I say. Maybe two weeks out, I might believe it with full model consensus across the board. One must go with the yearly trends and that trend has been an accumulating snow event between December 5 thru December 8 - usually the first snow event for our area also known as the Pearl Harbor Snow Event. Warm to some is cold to others. I will take 40 degree weather in the Valley on December 1. Seven day s later the bottom usually falls out whistle.gif:snowman:

i said "for now" :P:snowman:

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Philly has recorded 71" of snow in DEC over the past 11 yrs, for this region that would hardly be considered an anomaly. For a frame of reference JAN snow over the same timeframe is 73.3". MAR is quickly becoming the anomaly month from a snowfall standpoint - only 20.9" in the past 11yrs.

Based on the recent trends we should certainly expect snow in DEC, the days of being told about unrealistic DEC snowfall expectations & MAR is snowier than DEC are over.

can you post your PHL data for snow and temps again.

Thanks

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LC agrees. Bullish on east coast storm followed by cold post Thanksgiving. JB in similar camp with any snow west of the Apps.

Yesterday's 12z GFS had this as an apps runner so take any solution with a pretty large grain of salt.

Any "cold" over the next couple of weeks will be 1-2 day shots...nothing locked/loaded. Pattern and MJO trends aren't (yet) supporting a locked-in cool down.

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HM

This is for the weenies :snowman:

The AAM is sliding back down again, solidifying the RNA. Usually, this whole

thing retrogrades and that will put the trough back along the East Coast again

as we enter December.

It is going to take a ridiculous +EPO / Alaskan PV

to keep the NAO from going deeply negative which is what the models are showing

in the extended. Once this feature retrogrades and the ridge comes back across

the Rockies, we may get a late-October styled +h5 anomaly again.

I am

still impressed with the pattern basically now through the next 7 days. This is

a very 1955-like picture with a deep NAO pattern and a transpolar ridge.

http://www.esrl.noaa.../images/nao.png

CPC charts are

close to ludicrous in terms of NAO

state.

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Yesterday's 12z GFS had this as an apps runner so take any solution with a pretty large grain of salt.

Any "cold" over the next couple of weeks will be 1-2 day shots...nothing locked/loaded. Pattern and MJO trends aren't (yet) supporting a locked-in cool down.

The GFS's couple of sigmas bullish mjo cold outlook from last week looks like its hanging on by a thread now, so we might have to look elsewhere for a pattern change.

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The GFS's couple of sigmas bullish mjo cold outlook from last week looks like its hanging on by a thread now, so we might have to look elsewhere for a pattern change.

The statistical forecasts from Paul Roundy haven't really budged though. The hang up appears to be remnant convection near the dateline when the IO gets going again.

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