Grothar Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 The bolded sentence is incorrect. Code is based on maximum expected depth, and is not an average. The Lehigh Valley where you are rarely sees the freeze line greater than 12". The largest freeze depth I've ever seen was 1976-77, which was a very cold and dry winter, and those depths where you are were not at 36". In fact, many areas were under a drought watch that winter. Bottom line is that you only need a few inches of frozen ground to get a 1996 redux. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 The bolded sentence is incorrect. Code is based on maximum expected depth, and is not an average. The Lehigh Valley where you are rarely sees the freeze line greater than 12". The largest freeze depth I've ever seen was 1976-77, which was a very cold and dry winter, and those depths where you are were not at 36". In fact, many areas were under a drought watch that winter. Bottom line is that you only need a few inches of frozen ground to get a 1996 redux. Actually you probably just need 2-3 feet of snow on the ground plus 1-3 inches of warm rain to get 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Thanks for the clarification. Yeah, frost depth wouldn't be a really big factor for a potential flood. Actually you probably just need 2-3 feet of snow on the ground plus 1-3 inches of warm rain to get 1996. The biggest factor would be the warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Yeah, frost depth wouldn't be a really big factor for a potential flood. The biggest factor would be the warm rain. Yes, AVP lost 18 inches of snow in 2 days, due to 2 inches of rain and a high in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Actually you probably just need 2-3 feet of snow on the ground plus 1-3 inches of warm rain to get 1996. Lolz ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 So...what's the latest 1-2 inches for most of Pa...looking forward to the weather getting cool soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Driveway grade has been fixed. Sump pump is now pumping out 40+ ft from house. French Drains installed. Downspouts now connected and flow downhill 50+ away from the house. Generator is on its way.... I'm now ready for it. Irene and Lee still haunt my dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Newest HPC map. Looks like 1-2 inches across 2-3 days. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 First frost potential next Thurs-Sat for N/W. 00z models show tropical moisture phasing with a Canadian front, providing a potential heavy rain event for PA as the storm blows up and lifts northeast into Canada Tue-Wed...big push of cool coming down Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 First frost potential next Thurs-Sat for N/W. 00z models show tropical moisture phasing with a Canadian front, providing a potential heavy rain event for PA as the storm blows up and lifts northeast into Canada Tue-Wed...big push of cool coming down Thurs. That euro sure is amplified! Nice set up for a forester towards the 144-172hr marker. Just checked ewall, so don't have the frame by frame after that. But looks like a big time phase about to happen. Either way, it's sexy! Big time blocking , amplified ridge out west. Pv sitting this side of the hemisphere with s/w rotating around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 First frost potential next Thurs-Sat for N/W. 00z models show tropical moisture phasing with a Canadian front, providing a potential heavy rain event for PA as the storm blows up and lifts northeast into Canada Tue-Wed...big push of cool coming down Thurs. It could certainly happen if the block sets up in the Davis Straits, but the Euro op is an outlier vs. its ensemble mean attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 It could certainly happen if the block sets up in the Davis Straits, but the Euro op is an outlier vs. its ensemble mean attm. 12z really jacks up the rain potential next week and tones down the frost...run of the mill "cool" behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 12z really jacks up the rain potential next week and tones down the frost...run of the mill "cool" behind the front. I read an article on the delaware county daily time from accu weather this morning. Talk of a potential "bomb" next week with heavy snows inland according to HM. flooding rains with potential to set up the storm cycle for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 12Z GFS backs off the heavy QPF next week as the coastal low forms farther to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 12z Euro very active in the long range......Tuesday-Wednesday next week, another big storm possible the week after. Doesn't appear like drying out is going to happen anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 12z Euro very active in the long range......Tuesday-Wednesday next week, another big storm possible the week after. Doesn't appear like drying out is going to happen anytime soon. Yesterday's 12z GFS long-range had some s*** in SE PA on the 28th/29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 DT is honking about the potential for this week fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Yesterday's 12z GFS long-range had some s*** in SE PA on the 28th/29th. lolz@ todays 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 lolz@ todays 18z GFS That is a major lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 1318808982[/url]' post='1035475']That is a major lol. Let's see the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Not even into mid October yet, and it has been called. But I'd expect nothing less from Grothar. There's too many things wrong to count with his post, I think I'll just leave it alone for now. By the way guys, DT made reference to this analog as well in his winter preseason power point presentation this past month If there is a lot of High Latitude Blocking… (-NAO) could be like 1962-1963 or 1995-96 could be like 1962-1963 or 1995-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 By the way guys, DT made reference to this analog as well in his winter preseason power point presentation this past month If there is a lot of High Latitude Blocking… (-NAO) could be like 1962-1963 or 1995-96 could be like 1962-1963 or 1995-96 Yes, the ground will freeze at two feet. The avg winter frost depth is up to 36 inches for SE PA. The IBC building code indicates this to be true. In most cases the ground will freeze before we get our first significant snowfall. If we have several days of below freezing temps in late November to early December, the depth of the snow pack on already frozen ground in December will mean little. I also do not understand how wet ground freezes any less than dry ground but in fact the soil porosity would indicate the opposite to be true. The water table usually remains static in December, so unless we get virtually no rain and having above temps in November, we stand a fair chance of seeing some flooding from a January thaw and a heavy rain on the snow pack. Actually I was wrong in using 1996 as an analog when realistically I do not know an analog for the scenario where we have a small snow pack on an extensive frost depth with a January thaw and heavy rain event.. So now you are back to using 96 as an analog, because you saw DT using it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Mt Holly's discussion for the possible Noreaster Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thoughts? .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE WRF-NMM INITIALIZATION WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND DEVELOPS IT AS A LOW WITH OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM, BUT WE KNOW THE SHELF LIFE OF THE WRF-NMM GETS PRECARIOUS TOWARD THE END OF ITS FORECAST RANGE. THUS THIS PART OF THE FCST PKG IS ABOUT ONE THIRD CONTINUITY, ONE THIRD OLD EURO (GIVES THE GFS TRACK SOME CREDIT) AND ONE THIRD CUR WRF-NMM. MOST MODELS OTHER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF HAVE DROPPED THE QPF ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FORCING MECHANISMS HAVE NOT WEAKENED THAT MUCH. THERE IS STILL FCST EVIDENCE OF QVEC CONV AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DIFFLUENCE ALF BTWN THE TWO 250MB JETS. SUSPECT THEY ARE KEYING ON THE DRY AIR BEING TOO MUCH PLUS THE FORCING IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED IN BOTH TIME AND GEOGRAPHY, THUS FARTHER NORTH. WE LOWERED THE POPS SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE FORMER. UNLESS TEMPERATURES TANK EARLY, SUSPECT STAT GUID MIN TEMPS MAY BE TOO LOW AND LEANED TWD THE HIER DATASETS. TUESDAY DAY (ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON) LOOKS LIKE A TWEEN PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM GETS INVIGORATED. THE FORECAST 925MB TEMPS SIMMERED DOWN BY ABOUT 2C SO WE PRETTY MUCH DID A BLEND OF CURRENT FCST AND STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS (STILL HIGHER THAN IT IN MOST PLACES). WE HAVE BEEN FEELING LIKE BILL MURRAY IN GROUND HOG DAY SINCE MID AUGUST WITH THIS EASTERN CONUS TROF OR CLOSED LOW PATTERN REPEATING ITSELF AND HERE WE GO AGAIN. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NHC IS DISCUSSING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHETHER ITS THAT LOW ITSELF OR A SECOND ONE THAT FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, THE TROPICAL CONNECTION IS THERE AND PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO CLOSE TO TWO INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE SREF MEAN QPF IS ONE TO TWO INCHES FOR OUR CWA. WOULD LIKE THE GFS DRY SLOT SOLUTION TO WORK, BUT NOT BANKING ON IT. STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO RECEDE SOMEWHAT AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS MOIST AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN PARTS OF LATE AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER. REGARDLESS A HEAVY PCPN EVENT COUPLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDED THUNDER WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL EVEN IF ITS MAINLY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FALLEN LEAVES WILL EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL. AS FOR WINDS, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG WINDS. THE GFS TIGHTENS THE EASTERLY GRADIENT THE MOST ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THIS MIGHT BE INFLATED BECAUSE OF THE FEEDBACK LOW AS OTHER MODELS ARE BELOW GALE/WIND ADVY CRITERIA. SECOND OPPORTUNITY COMES WITH THE LLJ (NAM BRINGS IT CLOSE TO 90KTS). THE MORE WESTERN SOLUTIONS LIKE THE WRF-NMM PASS IT OVER OUR CWA WHILE THE GFS AND LATEST ECMWF ARE (TOO) FARTHER EAST. WAY TOO MUCH WIND ALOFT EVEN WITH A SORT OF PCPN INDUCED INVERSION FOR AN ADVY TYPE EVENT TO NOT OCCUR EAST IF THE WRF-NMM VERIFIES. LASTLY THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A NARROW CONVECTIVE BAND FORMING AND MIXING THE STRONGER WINDS DOWNWARD. NOT A VERY CONFIDENT SITU AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS GO BOTH WAYS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO SFC BASED CAPE AND FCST SFC LI(S) ARE ABOVE ZERO WHICH WOULD DEBILITATE SOME OF THE MIXING. ALOFT WE ARE CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING THUNDER. WE ADDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AND INCREASED THE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES. WE WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE HWO, BUT ITS TOO FAR IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND GENERAL DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THE SGFCNT PCPN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DONE. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE SYSTEM ITSELF AND SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS FAR NW ON THURSDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE WIND TO SETTLE AS IT SHOULD BE BRISK INTO FRIDAY. WE ARE TIMING THIS SYSTEMS WELL FOR THE WEEKENDS AND RIGHT NOW HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT ONE. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO HOLD OFF BEYOND THE END OF OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS, TUESDAY NIGHT WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE DATASETS BANKING ON CLOUDS AND WINDS TO KEEP THEM UP. THERE IS MUCH UPSIDE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE WENT ABOVE 12Z MEX MOS (IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT FCST). THEN BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WE BLENDED CONTINUITY WITH THE LATEST STAT GUIDANCE. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 324 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071-171930- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER- CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 324 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AND WOULD ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS. LASTLY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 IMO, overrunning shot of moderate rain pre dawn Wednesday AM through mid morning, dry slot, PM into evening thunder/squall with cold front (especially if the dry slot features some sunshine with it). Heaviest rains split the region (2"+ possible towards LI and offshore, as well as west of 81). Most of us see around an inch, some less. Low track and/or 850 jet would have to shift about 100 miles west to get in the heavier overrunning and tropical plume on the east side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Let's see the map Time sensitive. NCEP is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Time sensitive. NCEP is your friend. sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Looks nice for rest of this week and most of next until a cool/cold air shot mid month. Long range GFS (13 days+) likes it cold in Upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Looks nice for rest of this week and most of next until a cool/cold air shot mid month. Long range GFS (13 days+) likes it cold in Upper Midwest. Nice cross polar flow for them. Showing some bowling balls with sone decent fropa's with cold Canadian air masses coming through. Better in Nov than in december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Looks nice for rest of this week and most of next until a cool/cold air shot mid month. Long range GFS (13 days+) likes it cold in Upper Midwest. I just went through the "normal" Octobers with weak/mdt ninas and then looked at temps for the ensuing Novembers. Only 1 of 12 were "warm" in PHL. 2008-9 btw fell in the normal third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 as others have stated i dont see a porlonged shot of cold till mid month or better shot around t giving. The gfs and euro are starting to show some hints of a -nao building in at the end of the periods on some of the runs. The mjo, looks to be a in a favorable phase in about a couple weekes as it goes from phase 2-3 back to 7-8. The ao looks to push negative at the end of the 14 day period also. Given models usually try to rush things i think around the t giving timeframe is when we start looking for sustained cold. We need a big lake cutter to jump start a -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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