Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

Recommended Posts

per accu for me next week, chance of rain monday, tuesday, thursday, friday, saturday, sunday, monday :arrowhead:

This weather and the long-range outlook is depressing. Cold and/or rainy for 8 of the next 9 days. Any hopes for a pattern change in the near future?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 984
  • Created
  • Last Reply

8-10 not too shabby with both actually looking pretty decent from day 6 onward AND bonus day 3-4 height rises (mother nature wants to spoil us)

ecm actually has somewhat of a backdoor cold front look to it agan, but not as potent...one of those NE is in the 40s while we are still in the 60s variety

both in agreement of troughing in Alaska//W US it's just minor details of NW Atl troughing

MJO driven warmth?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8-10 not too shabby with both actually looking pretty decent from day 6 onward AND bonus day 3-4 height rises (mother nature wants to spoil us)

ecm actually has somewhat of a backdoor cold front look to it agan, but not as potent...one of those NE is in the 40s while we are still in the 60s variety

both in agreement of troughing in Alaska//W US it's just minor details of NW Atl troughing

MJO driven warmth?

Yeah, the 12z Euro worries me a bit with that look later next week. Hopefully nothing like that occurs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After reading JB's and LC's columns, they couldn't be farther apart in the long range.

What did each one say?

I'm in the warm-up camp now with no more chances of snow until winter. Unfortunately, I was asleep when that coating of snow came. It would have been nice to see the last one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The pattern next week is a classic MJO response along with the retrogression we have been seeing. I wouldn't be surprised if this system kicks off the beginnings of a -NAO pattern... a late season Heather A signal if you will.

The core of the cold air in the northern stream on the 12z EC is between -10 and -18c at h85. If that were to drop in, I would have to say all bets are off as far as snow. :snowman:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The pattern next week is a classic MJO response along with the retrogression we have been seeing. I wouldn't be surprised if this system kicks off the beginnings of a -NAO pattern... a late season Heather A signal if you will.

The core of the cold air in the northern stream on the 12z EC is between -10 and -18c at h85. If that were to drop in, I would have to say all bets are off as far as snow. :snowman:

Not sure what to say to this..Are you suggesting that that is a possibility?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A quickly dampening MJO bodes well for at least average temps for the time being assuming that weak phase 8 means little. Reforecast products (my new toy) suggest average to slightly above average temps (at 850) over the next week and then a pretty solid W Atl ridge extending into the E US by days 8-14. Better chance of lower temps and lower 500mb heights in the next week or so whereas by week 2 we are good to go for bbq weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, the Easter forecast is pretty tough. Either gradient flow and hope to get Easter between FROPAs or a full latitude trough sets up and temps are well below normal. Outside of the strat warming, which hasn't connected to the troposphere yet, there isn't a whole lot of forcing out there, either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, the Easter forecast is pretty tough. Either gradient flow and hope to get Easter between FROPAs or a full latitude trough sets up and temps are well below normal. Outside of the strat warming, which hasn't connected to the troposphere yet, there isn't a whole lot of forcing out there, either.

I'll take my chances with the first of the two options, thx.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...