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Medium-long range thread

tombo82685

By tombo82685,
in Philadelphia Region

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

Canadian is actually all mixed precip, but just N&W gets in to some snow

post-1820-0-86902600-1301165796.png

does anyone have the precip and temps from the ECM for KPHL or KPNE?

KPHL

THU 06Z 31-MAR 2.8 -1.4 1014 96 94 0.15 554 543

THU 12Z 31-MAR 2.4 -0.1 1011 97 96 0.15 552 543

THU 18Z 31-MAR 5.4 0.6 1009 93 83 0.10 550 543

FRI 00Z 01-APR 4.6 0.6 1006 97 70 0.14 546 541

FRI 06Z 01-APR 4.0 -1.1 1003 96 54 0.10 541 538

PNE

THU 06Z 31-MAR 3.1 -2.1 1014 95 94 0.10 554 543

THU 12Z 31-MAR 2.2 -0.6 1011 98 97 0.14 551 542

THU 18Z 31-MAR 5.3 0.4 1009 93 89 0.11 549 542

FRI 00Z 01-APR 4.4 0.5 1006 97 73 0.15 546 541

FRI 06Z 01-APR 3.8 -0.9 1003 96 53 0.11 541 538

FRI 12Z 01-APR 2.9 -3.0 1001 92 17 0.01 535 535

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Thunder Road

Thunder Road

Posted
Posted

KPHL

THU 06Z 31-MAR 2.8 -1.4 1014 96 94 0.15 554 543

THU 12Z 31-MAR 2.4 -0.1 1011 97 96 0.15 552 543

THU 18Z 31-MAR 5.4 0.6 1009 93 83 0.10 550 543

FRI 00Z 01-APR 4.6 0.6 1006 97 70 0.14 546 541

FRI 06Z 01-APR 4.0 -1.1 1003 96 54 0.10 541 538

PNE

THU 06Z 31-MAR 3.1 -2.1 1014 95 94 0.10 554 543

THU 12Z 31-MAR 2.2 -0.6 1011 98 97 0.14 551 542

THU 18Z 31-MAR 5.3 0.4 1009 93 89 0.11 549 542

FRI 00Z 01-APR 4.4 0.5 1006 97 73 0.15 546 541

FRI 06Z 01-APR 3.8 -0.9 1003 96 53 0.11 541 538

FRI 12Z 01-APR 2.9 -3.0 1001 92 17 0.01 535 535

thanks

:thumbsdown:

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

We're talking about April now, kids. 850's slightly below freezing don't cut it anymore. Its usually got to be COLD to get decent snow this time of year.

Did not mention snow ;) Some of us like tracking the weather and the systems that are moving across the region

& Just for the record this event on wed-thursday is still the month of March (not April)...

And we just had almost 3 inches of snow with temps in the mid 30s and 850s of the same value basically below 0

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Did not mention snow ;) Some of us like tracking the weather and the systems that are moving across the region

& Just for the record this event on wed-thursday is still the month of March (not April)...

Close enough ;)

And we just had almost 3 inches of snow with temps in the mid 30s and 850s of the same value basically below 0

It was 32-33 during most of the actual snowfall... I count 33 as low 30s ;)

850s were a lot colder though during the event.... -3 to -4 as I recall. And of course, that was a week earlier than this event. This time of year, with sunshine increasing rapidly, even the individual weeks matter as far as chances of accumulation. Climatologically, the odds of 1" of snow declined more than 10% between the 17th and 25th around Trenton... probably a similar decline at ABE, though I haven't calculated it.

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

Close enough ;)

It was 32-33 during most of the actual snowfall... I count 33 as low 30s ;)

850s were a lot colder though during the event.... -3 to -4 as I recall. And of course, that was a week earlier than this event. This time of year, with sunshine increasing rapidly, even the individual weeks matter as far as chances of accumulation. Climatologically, the odds of 1" of snow declined more than 10% between the 17th and 25th around Trenton... probably a similar decline at ABE, though I haven't calculated it.

Statistics are so nice but to my knowledge you are the only one that mentioned anything about snow. I counteracted to correct that this is not an April event (which its not) and that we just had almost 3 inches of snow under the same type of conditions..

FYI 850s are actually below freezing at actually about -2.7 and surface temps are only 34-37 degrees..

Last time around our high temperature got up to 36 degrees... and it was snowing actually at 38(was not ABE but rather location in Allentown) degrees and then the temperature dropped..

Bulk of precipitation at least VIA ECM is in the overnight hours...this deals away with any type of sun play...

Last time around 850s got as warm (modeled ) as -0.6 with surface temps in the mid 30s..

Again, i am not saying its going to snow ..i on the other hand I am not foolish enough to say that the possibility does not exist.. I am just telling you what the model says and what we just went thru 3 days ago..

This area averages 5.9 (5.1 per NWS climate daily as normal) inches per March snowfall..so ATM we are below for the month...

This area also average .06 snowfall for the month of April

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa...d/snowfall.html

Will we get snowfall out of this system? To early to tell when models are not all in agreement with the track...Will it rain? Same answer as the snowfall..

The one difference this time around is we are having a colder air mass in place before the event and not record high temperatures

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

As far as the second system is concerned the ECM means looks to bring this one right up the coast...

So it looks like the OP GFS & OP ECM are outliers to there own means..

GFS means

HPC take

ALL INDICATION AT THIS TIME POINTS TO ANINCREASING POSSIBILITY OF VERY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD AND MIDATLC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIALINGREDIENTS FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS AND A LATE SEASONWINTER WEATHER THREAT.RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Statistics are so nice but to my knowledge you are the only one that mentioned anything about snow.

You must've missed nzucker's post.

I counteracted to correct that this is not an April event (which its not) and that we just had almost 3 inches of snow under the same type of conditions..

I believe the term is "countered" not "counteracted".

FYI 850s are actually below freezing at actually about -2.7 and surface temps are only 34-37 degrees..

Last time around our high temperature got up to 36 degrees... and it was snowing actually at 38(was not ABE but rather location in Allentown) degrees and then the temperature dropped..

Bulk of precipitation at least VIA ECM is in the overnight hours...this deals away with any type of sun play...

Last time around 850s got as warm (modeled ) as -0.6 with surface temps in the mid 30s..

It wasn't snowing when 850's got that warm though... it changed to rain at ABE for approximately 6 hours.

Again, i am not saying its going to snow ..i on the other hand I am not foolish enough to say that the possibility does not exist..

I have made no such claim either.

I am just telling you what the model says and what we just went thru 3 days ago..

This area averages 5.9 (5.1 per NWS climate daily as normal) inches per March snowfall..so ATM we are below for the month...

This area also average .06 snowfall for the month of April

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa...d/snowfall.html

But we aren't talking about the whole month. Statistically, the odds of significant snow (or any snow, for that matter) go down with each passing day as we head through March. The end of the month is not usually when a deficit is made up in March. Can it happen? Sure... but I wouldn't bet on it.

Will we get snowfall out of this system? To early to tell when models are not all in agreement with the track...Will it rain? Same answer as the snowfall..

The one difference this time around is we are having a colder air mass in place before the event and not record high temperatures

Actually there's a more important difference. With the last system, the cold air was fresh... it was just arriving. With this system, its gonna be stale and moderating.

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

You must've missed nzucker's post.

I believe the term is "countered" not "counteracted".

It wasn't snowing when 850's got that warm though... it changed to rain at ABE for approximately 6 hours.

I have made no such claim either.

But we aren't talking about the whole month. Statistically, the odds of significant snow (or any snow, for that matter) go down with each passing day as we head through March. The end of the month is not usually when a deficit is made up in March. Can it happen? Sure... but I wouldn't bet on it.

Actually there's a more important difference. With the last system, the cold air was fresh... it was just arriving. With this system, its gonna be stale and moderating.

No i meant counteracted ;)

FYI

coun·ter·act tr.v. coun·ter·act·ed, coun·ter·act·ing, coun·ter·acts

To oppose and mitigate the effects of by contrary action; check.

To oppose the statements which were erroneous that you made....(Its now April Kids)

WED 18Z 30-MAR 0.6 -4.7 1017 86 98 0.11 553 539

THU 00Z 31-MAR -0.9 -4.3 1017 98 97 0.20 548 535

Is it correct? Doubt it ,being the prior run kept everything south but it is coming more in line with the rest of the guidance...

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

You should read the comments about your forum from our 3/23-24 obs thread.

I'd rather not, considering your developing reputation to talk about other people and sub forums in this one. You're the only one continuing to do it. It's a shame coming from a meteorologist, too. Sorry man, but I can't back you up here.

Anyway, carry on.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

I'd rather not, considering your developing reputation to talk about other people and sub forums in this one. You're the only one continuing to do it. It's a shame coming from a meteorologist, too. Sorry man, but I can't back you up here.

Anyway, carry on.

Well, if you did go, you'd see that you're quite mistaken on the bold part.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

Well, if you did go, you'd see that you're quite mistaken on the bold part.

I'm not getting into this conversation, and I'm not reading the thread either...I haven't said one bad word about you guys since the split. I love most of the dudes in this forum.

But the fact that there are still a group of people (majority of it stemming from you) talking sh** about the nyc posters in this forum, is really immature and I didn't expect it.

To each their own, though, and if that's how you want to be, fine. Have fun with it.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

No i meant counteracted ;)

FYI

coun·ter·act tr.v. coun·ter·act·ed, coun·ter·act·ing, coun·ter·acts

To oppose and mitigate the effects of by contrary action; check.

To oppose the statements which were erroneous that you made....(Its now April Kids)

coun·ter 1 (kounprime.giftschwa.gifr)v.tr.1. To meet or return (a blow) by another blow.2. To move or act in opposition to; oppose.3. To offer in response: countered that she was too busy to be thorough.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

I'm not getting into this conversation, and I'm not reading the thread either...I haven't said one bad word about you guys since the split. I love most of the dudes in this forum.

But the fact that there are still a group of people (majority of it stemming from you) talking sh** about the nyc posters in this forum, is really immature and I didn't expect it.

To each their own, though, and if that's how you want to be, fine. Have fun with it.

WTH, dude? The only thing I said in that thread which got the ball rolling was, "There were some weenies in the NYC thread getting all excited about super heavy snow, 1-3" hour rates, etc from this stuff. Now its heading mostly to their south."

From that one statement, at least 10 other posters added at least 15 comments which agreed with the idea in one form or another. (I think one or more were deleted). Even a mod agreed.

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

I'm not getting into this conversation, and I'm not reading the thread either...I haven't said one bad word about you guys since the split. I love most of the dudes in this forum.

But the fact that there are still a group of people (majority of it stemming from you) talking sh** about the nyc posters in this forum, is really immature and I didn't expect it.

To each their own, though, and if that's how you want to be, fine. Have fun with it.

Most of the posters in NYC are very good -- many know their s--t. However, the crap that helped drive the Philly/NYC divide is still there (a number of folks who are epically awful at analysis, antagonistic, or are insane wishcasters...some who really need to be five posted). It's a small but sizable enough chunk of the forum that made it tough for the Philly crowd to want to read it...

To each their own, like you said...but it isn't a full blown sh*t talk about the nyc posters overall...but you do have a number of bad ones up there...

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

Is it correct? Doubt it ,being the prior run kept everything south but it is coming more in line with the rest of the guidance..

Given you were the one 2 weeks ago who said it's essentially over I wouldn't get yourself into a "certainty" one way or the other... ;)

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=15018&view=findpost&p=547587

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

Given you were the one 2 weeks ago who said it's essentially over I wouldn't get yourself into a "certainty" one way or the other... ;)

http://www.americanw...ndpost&p=547587

And i believe that was in reference to the following:

Several forecasters are calling for a potential big daddy on or about March 20, 2011

And i said I doubt it because the winter for this area is essentially over ...

Hmmm ..what area does this thread cover?

Covering PHL metro, South and Central NJ, Northern DE and South Central PA

Sound about right?

I would not call that a "big daddy" for the aforementioned areas that that particular thread covers...

Not to mention the very fact that the storm did not happen on the 19-20th but rather the 23rd...

Coming back to the present ...I have not come out with anything of certainty for this upcoming event as the models are still not in agreement..

And for the majority of the region that this "region covers" I still stand by that in terms of snowfall...

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