famartin Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Both 12z gfs and euro show southern slider. Not too much amplification on h5 behalf Actually two. One early Sunday, a second late Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 This one on the EURO is matching the PNA peak and the -NAO sliding back to poistive and there is an elongated 50/50 low. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 This one on the EURO is matching the PNA peak and the -NAO sliding back to poistive and there is an elongated 50/50 low. Something to watch. Its also modeled to be a warm storm .....verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I would'nt worry about temps this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Why can't it just be warm? It is spring now, after all. I'm sick of cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Climatological odds of another 1 inch or more of snow at TTN are 21% after March 25th. So says the snow nazi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 This April 1-2 threat can really bite me. Starting to look like the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Yeah, looks like a mess either way, rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 This April 1-2 threat can really bite me. Starting to look like the real deal. I dont see much meteorological evidence in these threads to see the threat on april 1-2. I wish there were more posts about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I dont see much meteorological evidence in these threads to see the threat on april 1-2. I wish there were more posts about it. Sorry, I've been a statistician more than a meteorologist over the last couple of weeks. Basically, the models have been off and on showing a significant Nor'easter riding up the coast. A lot is going to depend on the upstream development. Today's 12z runs had flatter, more zonal flow along the West Coast, and the system kicked well offshore. The overnight 0z runs showed a stronger ridge out west, producing a track closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 This April 1-2 threat can really bite me. Starting to look like the real deal. Looks craptastic regardless of solution, unless it goes out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Looks craptastic regardless of solution, unless it goes out to sea. Even if it does that, we'll still have -10F departures next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Even if it does that, we'll still have -10F departures next weekend. If the hr 228 on the 12z Euro is right we could hit 80 on April 3rd. I doubt we'll even hit 60 but it's always nice to dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 If the hr 228 on the 12z Euro is right we could hit 80 on April 3rd. I doubt we'll even hit 60 but it's always nice to dream... April 3rd with the 12Z euro would be perfectly fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 If the hr 228 on the 12z Euro is right we could hit 80 on April 3rd. I doubt we'll even hit 60 but it's always nice to dream... I've busted just about every MR forecast I've issued for March so far, so I obviously say this with an iceberg of salt, but I don't think the 12z Euro ops is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 0z GFS is much more amplified with the April 1-2 system and close to a big snowstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 0z GFS is much more amplified with the April 1-2 system and close to a big snowstorm: For you in the higher elevations north of NYC, maybe. Go back to the NYC forum, please. No mongerers allowed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 For you in the higher elevations north of NYC, maybe. Go back to the NYC forum, please. No mongerers allowed here. Mongerer? Just discussing the storm system which has potential for your area, too. I guess you just don't want to make the flight home to NJ for a late-season HECS, eh? Anyway, seems like we should be talking about a 546dm cut-off in Alabama as it could have wide implications for the region from severe weather to snow depending on the track. Some models like the 18z GFS just want to stall it out down there, however. The pattern definitely favors some sort of Archembault-type event as the NAO rebounds from a severe drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 For you in the higher elevations north of NYC, maybe. Go back to the NYC forum, please. No mongerers allowed here. Damn, somebody is in a bad mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Damn, somebody is in a bad mood. Well I'm in a bad mood too cause it doesn't look like the 0z Euro does much with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Damn, somebody is in a bad mood. You should read the comments about your forum from our 3/23-24 obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 So no talk or much talk on the 1st/2nd timeframe as the GFS is showing a slightly off-shore track. It is very close to producing a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 0z GFS is much more amplified with the April 1-2 system and close to a big snowstorm: 6Z GFS is even colder and pretty much just as close for the same potential event. BTW, many of us here enjoy your posts and any opportunity to discuss potential snow events, despite what our favorite Western met might grouse about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Damn, somebody is in a bad mood. LOL, John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The Wed-Thursday system on the 12 Z GFS is now a complete miss to the south & the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The Wed-Thursday system on the 12 Z GFS is now a complete miss to the south & the east... slight change from lake erie to a weak wave off hatteras in one run NAM on the other hand looks interesting for whats its worth, which is very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 UKMET looks to be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12 Z GGEM Looks to be different from the GFS as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12 Z ECM @ 120 144 850s are below freezing ... Temps low to mid 30s QPF on the light side at ABE about .35 thru 00z Friday An addition .06 then falls for a total of .41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 GGEM, UKMET and ECM are farther west, GFS is OTS. never seen that happen before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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