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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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I dont see much meteorological evidence in these threads to see the threat on april 1-2. I wish there were more posts about it.

Sorry, I've been a statistician more than a meteorologist over the last couple of weeks. Basically, the models have been off and on showing a significant Nor'easter riding up the coast. A lot is going to depend on the upstream development. Today's 12z runs had flatter, more zonal flow along the West Coast, and the system kicked well offshore. The overnight 0z runs showed a stronger ridge out west, producing a track closer to the coast.

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If the hr 228 on the 12z Euro is right we could hit 80 on April 3rd. :weenie:

I doubt we'll even hit 60 but it's always nice to dream... :lol:

:lol:

I've busted just about every MR forecast I've issued for March so far, so I obviously say this with an iceberg of salt, but I don't think the 12z Euro ops is right.

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For you in the higher elevations north of NYC, maybe. Go back to the NYC forum, please. No mongerers allowed here.

Mongerer?

Just discussing the storm system which has potential for your area, too. I guess you just don't want to make the flight home to NJ for a late-season HECS, eh?

Anyway, seems like we should be talking about a 546dm cut-off in Alabama as it could have wide implications for the region from severe weather to snow depending on the track. Some models like the 18z GFS just want to stall it out down there, however. The pattern definitely favors some sort of Archembault-type event as the NAO rebounds from a severe drop.

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0z GFS is much more amplified with the April 1-2 system and close to a big snowstorm:

6Z GFS is even colder and pretty much just as close for the same potential event.

BTW, many of us here enjoy your posts and any opportunity to discuss potential snow events, despite what our favorite Western met might grouse about.

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