tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 the euro post 8 days is trying to build a west based -nap albeit weak, there is higher hgts in greenland and towards baffin island. Also has a nice ridge popping in the western US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well, I've busted pretty hard for the forecast that is going to verify in the next 5-10 days. The "superstorm" is going to go way OTS and the thaw that I thought would be shortlived and lower amplitude looks like it's going to hang around longer than I anticipated (maybe 7-9 days instead of 3-5). Just a reminder that I'm still learning all of this MR forecasting stuff and I'm going to bust huge every now and again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Man, though, the reforecast ensembles are still going strong for -NAO after V-day. Plus, I'm not entirely sure what +EPO/-PNA/-NAO configuration looks like from an anomaly standpoint. I'd guess at to slightly below normal averaged out. The GEFS centered on D+11 has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 We're really going to need that -NAO because there is zero forcing for any disruption to the polar vortex right now. The AO should be positive for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 So what is the magnitude of the torch starting next week (and wekk after)? I can see PHL hitting 50 on Valentine's. Is 60 in the realm for PHL later in the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 So what is the magnitude of the torch starting next week (and wekk after)? I can see PHL hitting 50 on Valentine's. Is 60 in the realm for PHL later in the week? take it with a grain of salt but the gfs has 62 for phl at day 13-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 There are some signs that a new pattern may emerge during the last week of February - -NAO, -AO, -PNA that may lead to a good overrunning event. See if it persists for a few days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 If i had to guess when we could start to see some a more wintry pattern setup for the area it would be after presidents day around feb 21 or so....The teleconnections are trying to build in a -na0 combined with a -epo. With the -pna though it could argue for a good amount of ice storms and ohio valley tracks that redevlop on the coast with the se ridge looming. I also wouldn't be shocked to see a swfe before hand if its timed perfectly with one of the 1-2 day glancing cold shots beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 If i had to guess when we could start to see some a more wintry pattern setup for the area it would be after presidents day around feb 21 or so....The teleconnections are trying to build in a -na0 combined with a -epo. With the -pna though it could argue for a good amount of ice storms and ohio valley tracks that redevlop on the coast with the se ridge looming. I also wouldn't be shocked to see a swfe before hand if its timed perfectly with one of the 1-2 day glancing cold shots beforehand. Just want to take some time and show the first real "potential" shot of snow/wintry weather after this upcoming warmth. Below are todays 18z gfs and 12z euro runs. The euro has been showing this on and off for the last 2 or so days, while the gfs has just started showing this as of 18z, while some of the ens members have been showing this. The potential threat has a strong indicator of possible overunning precipitation on or a couple days before or after presidents day. Any storng storm coming out of the rockies in this setup is going to cut right to the lakes with the teleconnection configuration of a -pna , weak -nao to somewhat positive nao, -epo. The -pna will ensure that the se ridge will be around, so a strengthening storm coming out of the rockies is really going to pump the ridge out ahead of this. With no real blocking in this pattern as shown now, nothing is preventing it from cutting. The scenario which we want is a weak system coming out traveling along the baroclinic zone from a front dropping down from the north throwing waa into the cold air. euro maps gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 End of feb looks like a nice time to book a trip to Tampa, FL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 00z GFS cold again in the long range.. just can't take models literally for how long this warm up lasts. We only get a few warm days in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Holy crap. New Euro weeklies say winter is over tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Holy crap. New Euro weeklies say winter is over tomorrow. Yea, i read it in the sne thread. No -nao at all really. Hey if winter is going to be over hopefully we go right into what we had last year with warmer weather starting in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Holy crap. New Euro weeklies say winter is over tomorrow. Yes euro is so reliable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Yes euro is so reliable! I'm not sure what you're implying here? I'm not taking the Euro weekly forecast verbatim, but there are lots of things that signal an extended period of warmth upcoming (note: this will bust my forecast from the end of January, so I'm not exactly happy about it). 1. The MJO is weaker than expected. That means the -EPO ridge will be less likely go up, or at least be weaker when it does. 2. All mountain torque signals are negative, meaning the planetary wave forcing will favor a +AO through the end of the month. That goes against the Don S statistical signature, which I was banking on. 3. Less ridging than expected over the Atlantic. Instead, the blocking appears to be focused on Scandinavia. 4. The polar vortex should be located over Western North America through February, putting the East Coast on the warm advection side. 5. The subtropical high is finally becoming dominant over the subtropical Atlantic. This is favored in Ninas, despite the fact that we haven't seen it yet this year. I waited too long in forecasting its dominance, even if it ends up being short-lived. At the very least, if we're going to get sustained cold again, the onset has been delayed at least a week from what I was thinking a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Not so good news for folks holding out for one more extended shot of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Not so good news for folks holding out for one more extended shot of winter. Well, the GFS shows more possibilities by day 10 - pattern still isn't perfect for snow then, but we'll have more cold if it verifies, and things can change for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Euro weeklies back in December signaled a cold, -NAO dominant January when most were giving up on winter (before Boxing Day). If they're as reliable this time, ugh. Oh well, what an amazing run for a strong Nina, especially since we even had a +NAO towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 long range 12z gfs is not that cold...cool shots from time to time but not anything significant. More or less a quasi zonal pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Not so good news for folks holding out for one more extended shot of winter. I simply can't understand why people are calling winter is over on 2/11/11. I am sick to my stomach. I may need to book a trip out west if we don't get atleast another 10 inches from now into early April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I simply can't understand why people are calling winter is over on 2/11/11. I am sick to my stomach. I may need to book a trip out west if we don't get atleast another 10 inches from now into early April You have a serious problem and need to check into a rehab center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 If this is the end of winter, then this will go down in the books as one of my top 5 least favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I simply can't understand why people are calling winter is over on 2/11/11. I am sick to my stomach. I may need to book a trip out west if we don't get atleast another 10 inches from now into early April All the snow you guys got up there, and your already whining? Get help, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I simply can't understand why people are calling winter is over on 2/11/11. I am sick to my stomach. I may need to book a trip out west if we don't get atleast another 10 inches from now into early April Didn't you get like 60" up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Darkstar is in a "dark place". I simply can't understand why people are calling winter is over on 2/11/11. I am sick to my stomach. I may need to book a trip out west if we don't get atleast another 10 inches from now into early April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 All the snow you guys got up there, and your already whining? Get help, now. There's nothing wrong with him. If it is an early end to winter (which is still in doubt,) that is a little upsetting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 DT chimes in... warning: http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/02/is-winter-over-for-for-the-eastern-conus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 There's nothing wrong with him. If it is an early end to winter (which is still in doubt,) that is a little upsetting. How much snow have you had Matt? I know you've been relatively screwed compared to many areas east of you... so I can understand you feeling a little ripped off. However, DarkStar has had close to if not more than 60 inches... he should be happy no matter what happens after the run of winter weather he's had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 We had an amazing 8 week run of near completely solid cold and a 5 week run of pretty impressive snows. You don't get that type of consistency in the pattern in our region and compared to where we were in the 90's, 2001-2, etc. this is certainly one of the better winters for the Philadelphia region in general. If winter has to end in mid February as the "price" we paid for that kind of a run, so be it. It was a great run...enjoy it, appreciate it, and don't whine about a mid February warm up. We've had much worse winters to contend with...don't get spoiled by the three year run we've had because you never know when the next 72-73 shows up. FWIW, it probably snows again before winter is over -- when we've had these types of February thaws we have had March snowfalls (not storms necessarily) -- 1990, 1994, 2001, 2004, 2009 are years where we hit 60 in Feb and then it snowed in March and/or April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 How much snow have you had Matt? I know you've been relatively screwed compared to many areas east of you... so I can understand you feeling a little ripped off. However, DarkStar has had close to if not more than 60 inches... he should be happy no matter what happens after the run of winter weather he's had. Strong winter for sure in Edison. I still expect to get some more snow this season hopefully. People informing winter is over, just because the pattern breakdowns makes me a tad angy. DT made a decent post on the subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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