phlwx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 You can't be suprised though, strong Nina's favor a January thaw, we got the thaw in February instead. Strong Nina's favor a snowy late February into March. Looks like we will get a snowy end of March into early April. This year it seems like everything is delayed a month. not necessarily. It could just be low 40's and rain for most with snow only in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 FWIW, if this pattern verifies it deserves a giant Going from near 80 to this s**t in less than a week is just massive cruelty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 FWIW, if this pattern verifies it deserves a giant Going from near 80 to this s**t in less than a week is just massive cruelty. March 1990 was quite warm in the first half of the month, including 5 straight days of 80+ degree high temps (during my spring break week, no less)...than the last 10 days of March through the first 10 days of April were quite chilly with several 1 to 3 inch snow events. Wouldn't be surprised at all to get at least one of those types of snow events during that same period this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 We got accumulating snow, including on roads, in mid October a few years ago during mid-day, and after a warm spell. It was explained as being very thick clouds as being why. But normally, gotta have heavy rates. Well, if we're talking about sun angle, then in that case it wasn't as much of an issue since the sun in October is only as strong as early March or late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 12 Z ECM has light QPF into the region with temperatures basically in the mid 30s at the surface... AT KABE they do fall to about 32-33 degrees but at that point only .07 total precip falls .45 Approx QPF falls at KPHL but surface temps never get below +1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 euro is much lighter with qpf so warmer surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 March 1990 was quite warm in the first half of the month, including 5 straight days of 80+ degree high temps (during my spring break week, no less)...than the last 10 days of March through the first 10 days of April were quite chilly with several 1 to 3 inch snow events. Wouldn't be surprised at all to get at least one of those types of snow events during that same period this year. I always think of March '07 as the cruelest twist of fate. 80 to a raging sleet storm in less than 48 hours. I usually get worried when we have an early torch day or two in March...it sometimes means snow down the line...but we definitely get a craptastic stretch of wx for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 12z ggem, basing off 850's it looks wintry from m/d line north http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 3 ft. of snow or nothing ridiculous to go from 70s and awesome weather to what lies ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 3 ft. of snow or nothing ridiculous to go from 70s and awesome weather to what lies ahead... Its situations like this when mother nature tends to be cruel. Unseasonably warm weather, followed by a kick in the nuts with rain/snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Depending upon surface Ts, 12Z GFS looks like 1-2" snow in DE and 2-4" snow in Philly Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Of course the 18Z GFS looks like all rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Its situations like this when mother nature tends to be cruel. Unseasonably warm weather, followed by a kick in the nuts with rain/snow and cold. Pretty much. I told my wife tonight that I have a love/hate attitude toward this time of year. Love that spring and warmer weather is on the way, but hate these one day teases followed by crap that we tend to get early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Don't look now, but the NAM has a wintry mess north of the Lehigh Valley on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Its the long range of the NAM and its in the Poconos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Its the long range of the NAM and its in the Poconos... The SREF probs have Allentown in a 45-50% chance of 1+" of snow, with the storm starting as snow, then changing to sleet, then finally rain. It'll be interesting to see if any other models follow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 The SREF probs have Allentown in a 45-50% chance of 1+" of snow, with the storm starting as snow, then changing to sleet, then finally rain. It'll be interesting to see if any other models follow tonight. 00z GFS has the freezing line way up in NC NY at the same time the NAM shows a pocket of colder air over the poconos.... @ 60 hrs however it has the freezing line at the surface far enough south to maybe produce some ZR..would not bet on it though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 00z GFS has the freezing line way up in NC NY at the same time the NAM shows a pocket of colder air over the poconos.... @ 60 hrs however it has the freezing line at the surface far enough south to maybe produce some ZR..would not bet on it though.. yeah decent ZR relies on good CAD usually. with 70-80° temps today i would assume ZR is out of the question, or at least very unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 On the other hand it does try and bring a snow/frozen event with the second piece of energy..at least north and west of KPHL...however..Proceed with caution because it was not that long ago that the GFS had this system suppressed to the south and has been working its way more north with every run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 00z euro with a little thump on the front end of wave 2 for Philly north...snow to rain...maybe a couple of inches...it has trended a touch north on this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Next week (and weekend) looks nasty overall whether it snows or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Next week (and weekend) looks nasty overall whether it snows or not. This time of year we always pay the price for a day or two of nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This time of year we always pay the price for a day or two of nice weather. Yup. For that reason, we shouldn't complain.......BUT............its fun to do. I am not a big fan of March and April in general, so any nice days (like the past few) help us get closer to late spring and summer weather in a more enjoyable fashion. I love the snow, but I put little faith in snow occuring in SE PA once March rolls around, and even when it does, its usually a mess and doesn't stick around long anyway. I'd rather have early spring weather. Currently 49 and sunny here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 yeah decent ZR relies on good CAD usually. with 70-80° temps today i would assume ZR is out of the question, or at least very unlikely If it rains at night, then it's more likely. When I lived in Pittsburgh we had a nasty ice event back in the mid-90s after two days in the 70s. The cold rain can bring surface temps down fast at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 If it rains at night, then it's more likely. When I lived in Pittsburgh we had a nasty ice event back in the mid-90s after two days in the 70s. The cold rain can bring surface temps down fast at night. Was there any ice on the roads? Usually that's really tough after a couple warm days... especially in March. Much more likely to get bad icing on trees/power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 NAM/SREF/RGEM all have accumulating snow in the LV/Poconos tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Was there any ice on the roads? Usually that's really tough after a couple warm days... especially in March. Much more likely to get bad icing on trees/power lines. Yeah, it got down to 30 so yes but the sidewalks/roads that were getting icy were not traveled. I remember sliding on my then girl-friend's cobblestone street coming back from a date - for some reason, cobblestone freezes before asphalt. Why would that be? Less heat absorbed? The sidewalks were patchy ice but that sucked due to it being hard to tell where it was. I wish I recalled the exact date. I remember the next morning it was really bad as the rain stopped and the temp fell to like 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 While the operational GFS brings a frozen event to parts of the region..The GFS means are warmer and more north yet then the operational.. I believe the operational model is presently under doing the WAA that would be associated with this system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 12 Z ECM event # 1 where the NAM/RGEM/SREFS are suggesting frozen for the ABE area....has a total of .36 QPF with the lowest the surface temp becomes of +1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 For event # 2 it appears as though the ECM would have a warning criteria snowfall in the ABE region with .85 liquid falling and the warmest the surface temp becomes is 18 Z thursday @ + 1.8 with at that time only .06 falling.. WED 12Z 23-MAR -0.1 -4.2 1017 70 99 0.06 556 542 WED 18Z 23-MAR 1.0 -4.0 1010 77 92 0.10 553 545 THU 00Z 24-MAR -0.5 -2.5 1004 95 99 0.27 548 545 THU 06Z 24-MAR -0.5 -0.9 995 95 90 0.20 539 543 THU 12Z 24-MAR -0.6 -3.7 996 94 79 0.16 533 537 THU 18Z 24-MAR 1.8 -7.0 1001 74 93 0.06 535 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 For event # 2 it appears as though the ECM would have a warning criteria snowfall in the ABE region with .85 liquid falling and the warmest the surface temp becomes is 18 Z thursday @ + 1.8 with at that time only .06 falling.. WED 12Z 23-MAR -0.1 -4.2 1017 70 99 0.06 556 542 WED 18Z 23-MAR 1.0 -4.0 1010 77 92 0.10 553 545 THU 00Z 24-MAR -0.5 -2.5 1004 95 99 0.27 548 545 THU 06Z 24-MAR -0.5 -0.9 995 95 90 0.20 539 543 THU 12Z 24-MAR -0.6 -3.7 996 94 79 0.16 533 537 THU 18Z 24-MAR 1.8 -7.0 1001 74 93 0.06 535 535 How's it looking for the Philly suburbs? Some snow here, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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