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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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You can't be suprised though, strong Nina's favor a January thaw, we got the thaw in February instead. Strong Nina's favor a snowy late February into March. Looks like we will get a snowy end of March into early April. This year it seems like everything is delayed a month.

not necessarily. It could just be low 40's and rain for most with snow only in the mtns.

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FWIW, if this pattern verifies it deserves a giant :axe: Going from near 80 to this s**t in less than a week is just massive cruelty.

March 1990 was quite warm in the first half of the month, including 5 straight days of 80+ degree high temps (during my spring break week, no less)...than the last 10 days of March through the first 10 days of April were quite chilly with several 1 to 3 inch snow events. Wouldn't be surprised at all to get at least one of those types of snow events during that same period this year.

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We got accumulating snow, including on roads, in mid October a few years ago during mid-day, and after a warm spell. It was explained as being very thick clouds as being why.

But normally, gotta have heavy rates.

Well, if we're talking about sun angle, then in that case it wasn't as much of an issue since the sun in October is only as strong as early March or late February.

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March 1990 was quite warm in the first half of the month, including 5 straight days of 80+ degree high temps (during my spring break week, no less)...than the last 10 days of March through the first 10 days of April were quite chilly with several 1 to 3 inch snow events. Wouldn't be surprised at all to get at least one of those types of snow events during that same period this year.

I always think of March '07 as the cruelest twist of fate. 80 to a raging sleet storm in less than 48 hours. :arrowhead:

I usually get worried when we have an early torch day or two in March...it sometimes means snow down the line...but we definitely get a craptastic stretch of wx for a few days.

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Its situations like this when mother nature tends to be cruel. Unseasonably warm weather, followed by a kick in the nuts with rain/snow and cold. :huh:

Pretty much. I told my wife tonight that I have a love/hate attitude toward this time of year. Love that spring and warmer weather is on the way, but hate these one day teases followed by crap that we tend to get early on.

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The SREF probs have Allentown in a 45-50% chance of 1+" of snow, with the storm starting as snow, then changing to sleet, then finally rain. It'll be interesting to see if any other models follow tonight.

00z GFS has the freezing line way up in NC NY at the same time the NAM shows a pocket of colder air over the poconos....

@ 60 hrs however it has the freezing line at the surface far enough south to maybe produce some ZR..would not bet on it though..

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00z GFS has the freezing line way up in NC NY at the same time the NAM shows a pocket of colder air over the poconos....

@ 60 hrs however it has the freezing line at the surface far enough south to maybe produce some ZR..would not bet on it though..

yeah decent ZR relies on good CAD usually. with 70-80° temps today i would assume ZR is out of the question, or at least very unlikely

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On the other hand it does try and bring a snow/frozen event with the second piece of energy..at least north and west of KPHL...however..Proceed with caution because it was not that long ago that the GFS had this system suppressed to the south and has been working its way more north with every run....

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This time of year we always pay the price for a day or two of nice weather.

Yup. For that reason, we shouldn't complain.......BUT............its fun to do. I am not a big fan of March and April in general, so any nice days (like the past few) help us get closer to late spring and summer weather in a more enjoyable fashion.

I love the snow, but I put little faith in snow occuring in SE PA once March rolls around, and even when it does, its usually a mess and doesn't stick around long anyway. I'd rather have early spring weather.

Currently 49 and sunny here.

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yeah decent ZR relies on good CAD usually. with 70-80° temps today i would assume ZR is out of the question, or at least very unlikely

If it rains at night, then it's more likely. When I lived in Pittsburgh we had a nasty ice event back in the mid-90s after two days in the 70s. The cold rain can bring surface temps down fast at night.

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If it rains at night, then it's more likely. When I lived in Pittsburgh we had a nasty ice event back in the mid-90s after two days in the 70s. The cold rain can bring surface temps down fast at night.

Was there any ice on the roads? Usually that's really tough after a couple warm days... especially in March. Much more likely to get bad icing on trees/power lines.

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Was there any ice on the roads? Usually that's really tough after a couple warm days... especially in March. Much more likely to get bad icing on trees/power lines.

Yeah, it got down to 30 so yes but the sidewalks/roads that were getting icy were not traveled. I remember sliding on my then girl-friend's cobblestone street coming back from a date - for some reason, cobblestone freezes before asphalt. Why would that be? Less heat absorbed? The sidewalks were patchy ice but that sucked due to it being hard to tell where it was.

I wish I recalled the exact date. I remember the next morning it was really bad as the rain stopped and the temp fell to like 28.

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For event # 2 it appears as though the ECM would have a warning criteria snowfall in the ABE region with .85 liquid falling and the warmest the surface temp becomes is 18 Z thursday @ + 1.8 with at that time only .06 falling..

WED 12Z 23-MAR -0.1 -4.2 1017 70 99 0.06 556 542

WED 18Z 23-MAR 1.0 -4.0 1010 77 92 0.10 553 545

THU 00Z 24-MAR -0.5 -2.5 1004 95 99 0.27 548 545

THU 06Z 24-MAR -0.5 -0.9 995 95 90 0.20 539 543

THU 12Z 24-MAR -0.6 -3.7 996 94 79 0.16 533 537

THU 18Z 24-MAR 1.8 -7.0 1001 74 93 0.06 535 535

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For event # 2 it appears as though the ECM would have a warning criteria snowfall in the ABE region with .85 liquid falling and the warmest the surface temp becomes is 18 Z thursday @ + 1.8 with at that time only .06 falling..

WED 12Z 23-MAR -0.1 -4.2 1017 70 99 0.06 556 542

WED 18Z 23-MAR 1.0 -4.0 1010 77 92 0.10 553 545

THU 00Z 24-MAR -0.5 -2.5 1004 95 99 0.27 548 545

THU 06Z 24-MAR -0.5 -0.9 995 95 90 0.20 539 543

THU 12Z 24-MAR -0.6 -3.7 996 94 79 0.16 533 537

THU 18Z 24-MAR 1.8 -7.0 1001 74 93 0.06 535 535

How's it looking for the Philly suburbs? Some snow here, too?

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