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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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In apparent weather, the Euro isn't that far off from those.

Why are they showing it if the MJO/GWO doesn't support it? Asking because I am curious.

Other feedbacks can be trumping the MJO/GWO in the 8-10 day time frame. For example, if a shortwave is too strong over the East Pacific around D5, that can lead to increased ridging over the West Coast by midweek, leading to a more amplified trough by the weekend. Also, models have a bias of breaking down strong subtropical ridges too quickly.

There will be a -NAO next week, so I'm not really saying it's going to be a full on-torch, either, but I'd expect a stronger influence from the SE ridge than currently projected.

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Other feedbacks can be trumping the MJO/GWO in the 8-10 day time frame. For example, if a shortwave is too strong over the East Pacific around D5, that can lead to increased ridging over the West Coast by midweek, leading to a more amplified trough by the weekend. Also, models have a bias of breaking down strong subtropical ridges too quickly.

There will be a -NAO next week, so I'm not really saying it's going to be a full on-torch, either, but I'd expect a stronger influence from the SE ridge than currently projected.

The MJO has gone into the "circle of death" as of this morning though, so it is possible that models are over-amping it into the p4-p5 phases in the next week or so. The AAM should be around a temporary bottom now, which would mean a rise in the coming week. Negative but rising AAM doesn't necessarily mean cold, but it fights against a colder signal less than it would if AAM was tanked with a neutral tendency, or in a sharply falling state.

By no means am I confident in details next week. Yesterday I was inclined to believe with you about climo factors not supporting the colder trends. Today I'm not as sure, to be honest.

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By no means am I confident in details next week. Yesterday I was inclined to believe with you about climo factors not supporting the colder trends. Today I'm not as sure, to be honest.

Yeah, today's models are certainly causing the confidence in my forecast to wane.

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Eh, close enough this far out to keep us interested though.

Euro has a documented warm bias of a bit over 1C with regards to North American surface temperatures, so the actual temperature is probably in the range of 33-37F, certainly cold enough for some marginal snow. Elevation will of course be a huge factor in a late March snowfall event.

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Euro has a documented warm bias of a bit over 1C with regards to North American surface temperatures, so the actual temperature is probably in the range of 33-37F, certainly cold enough for some marginal snow. Elevation will of course be a huge factor in a late March snowfall event.

might have to think of the fact that the SE ridge has generally won more often than not the last four weeks...even with the rogue snow event on 2/22 the system was suppressed on the Euro and then nudged north in the end.

SE ridging might nudge it farther north than progged on the models.

Timing (night/day) will help but the odds lean rain at this point.

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12 Z ECM looks warm enough to keep everything as all rain..at least as far as Majority of PA is concerned..

Temps generally look to be 35-40 ...

ABE soundings have the start 35 degrees and dropping to 33. 850's are below 0 from Wednesday 12z and on. After this, .44" of qpf falls. So there is some snow and sleet on the euro after about .35" of rain. This is for ABE.

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ABE soundings have the start 35 degrees and dropping to 33. 850's are below 0 from Wednesday 12z and on. After this, .44" of qpf falls. So there is some snow and sleet on the euro after about .35" of rain. This is for ABE.

WED 12Z 23-MAR 2.1 0.0 1010 96 99 0.30 558 549

WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.2 0.2 1010 91 58 0.24 555 547

THU 00Z 24-MAR 1.8 -2.1 1013 95 27 0.04 551 541

THU 06Z 24-MAR 0.4 -3.9 1016 93 35 0.01 550 537

THU 12Z 24-MAR -1.9 -5.3 1017 87 57 0.00 548 534

They are actually at 0 to slightly above while the surface temp is above freezing..verbatim. .59 of QPF falls during this time frame but as mentioned surface is above freezing. We are talking about late march here and basically during the day time..I have the text ..I have the 6 hr images and at 12 Z about the only areas that are 30-35 are basically Northern NJ and to NE NJ and then draw that line a little SW and you cut the state of PA in half essentially...so we are essentially right on the border of 30-35/35-40 and as i said prior south of there is 35-40 and basically would support rain..Now is the ECM too warm? Too early to know but i would be leaning towards a rainy scenario with maybe some back end frozen..but normally backend does not work out to well..yet alone it being late march..

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