atownwxwatcher Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Any news for next week on the EURO? Saw from a couple of other boards a pretty good cold front coming through. Thanks Last nights 00z ECM was significantly warmer then yesterdays 12 Z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Last nights 00z ECM was significantly warmer then yesterdays 12 Z run... Thanks and any news yet on todays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Thanks and any news yet on todays? Text is only thru Monday 18 Z at the present time...due to the later starting time since the clocks changed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 last night at this time the gfs showed near 70 for day 7. skeptical on either solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Heads-up! Shorts to Coat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 FWIW 06Z has the damn thing even further south, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Not saying it can't happen, but neither the MJO nor the GWO support anything remotely close to those solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Not saying it can't happen, but neither the MJO nor the GWO support anything remotely close to those solutions. In apparent weather, the Euro isn't that far off from those. Why are they showing it if the MJO/GWO doesn't support it? Asking because I am curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 In apparent weather, the Euro isn't that far off from those. Why are they showing it if the MJO/GWO doesn't support it? Asking because I am curious. Other feedbacks can be trumping the MJO/GWO in the 8-10 day time frame. For example, if a shortwave is too strong over the East Pacific around D5, that can lead to increased ridging over the West Coast by midweek, leading to a more amplified trough by the weekend. Also, models have a bias of breaking down strong subtropical ridges too quickly. There will be a -NAO next week, so I'm not really saying it's going to be a full on-torch, either, but I'd expect a stronger influence from the SE ridge than currently projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Actually I think a stronger SE ridge might help prevent this thing from being too suprsessed and missing most of us to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 The chance of 1" of snow at Trenton after St. Patrick's Day is 34%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Other feedbacks can be trumping the MJO/GWO in the 8-10 day time frame. For example, if a shortwave is too strong over the East Pacific around D5, that can lead to increased ridging over the West Coast by midweek, leading to a more amplified trough by the weekend. Also, models have a bias of breaking down strong subtropical ridges too quickly. There will be a -NAO next week, so I'm not really saying it's going to be a full on-torch, either, but I'd expect a stronger influence from the SE ridge than currently projected. The MJO has gone into the "circle of death" as of this morning though, so it is possible that models are over-amping it into the p4-p5 phases in the next week or so. The AAM should be around a temporary bottom now, which would mean a rise in the coming week. Negative but rising AAM doesn't necessarily mean cold, but it fights against a colder signal less than it would if AAM was tanked with a neutral tendency, or in a sharply falling state. By no means am I confident in details next week. Yesterday I was inclined to believe with you about climo factors not supporting the colder trends. Today I'm not as sure, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 12 Z GGEM FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 By no means am I confident in details next week. Yesterday I was inclined to believe with you about climo factors not supporting the colder trends. Today I'm not as sure, to be honest. Yeah, today's models are certainly causing the confidence in my forecast to wane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Looking past the snow threat, looks like ridging gets itself established again over the Western Atlantic and several GFS ensemble members try to give us another drenching rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Man that 24th storm is looking a lot like that Feb 22 storm where we got 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 The chance of 1" of snow at Trenton after St. Patrick's Day is 34%. so < 1" is more than 34%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 so < 1" is more than 34%? The chance of less than 1" of snow (which includes no measurable snow, of course) is 66%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Look on the bright side, the chance of 1" or more snow accumulating in KPLH in the next year is near 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 12 Z ECM looks warm enough to keep everything as all rain..at least as far as Majority of PA is concerned.. Temps generally look to be 35-40 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 12 Z ECM looks warm enough to keep everything as all rain..at least as far as Majority of PA is concerned.. Temps generally look to be 35-40 ... Eh, close enough this far out to keep us interested though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Eh, close enough this far out to keep us interested though. Euro has a documented warm bias of a bit over 1C with regards to North American surface temperatures, so the actual temperature is probably in the range of 33-37F, certainly cold enough for some marginal snow. Elevation will of course be a huge factor in a late March snowfall event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Euro has a documented warm bias of a bit over 1C with regards to North American surface temperatures, so the actual temperature is probably in the range of 33-37F, certainly cold enough for some marginal snow. Elevation will of course be a huge factor in a late March snowfall event. might have to think of the fact that the SE ridge has generally won more often than not the last four weeks...even with the rogue snow event on 2/22 the system was suppressed on the Euro and then nudged north in the end. SE ridging might nudge it farther north than progged on the models. Timing (night/day) will help but the odds lean rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 12 Z ECM looks warm enough to keep everything as all rain..at least as far as Majority of PA is concerned.. Temps generally look to be 35-40 ... ABE soundings have the start 35 degrees and dropping to 33. 850's are below 0 from Wednesday 12z and on. After this, .44" of qpf falls. So there is some snow and sleet on the euro after about .35" of rain. This is for ABE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 ABE soundings have the start 35 degrees and dropping to 33. 850's are below 0 from Wednesday 12z and on. After this, .44" of qpf falls. So there is some snow and sleet on the euro after about .35" of rain. This is for ABE. WED 12Z 23-MAR 2.1 0.0 1010 96 99 0.30 558 549 WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.2 0.2 1010 91 58 0.24 555 547 THU 00Z 24-MAR 1.8 -2.1 1013 95 27 0.04 551 541 THU 06Z 24-MAR 0.4 -3.9 1016 93 35 0.01 550 537 THU 12Z 24-MAR -1.9 -5.3 1017 87 57 0.00 548 534 They are actually at 0 to slightly above while the surface temp is above freezing..verbatim. .59 of QPF falls during this time frame but as mentioned surface is above freezing. We are talking about late march here and basically during the day time..I have the text ..I have the 6 hr images and at 12 Z about the only areas that are 30-35 are basically Northern NJ and to NE NJ and then draw that line a little SW and you cut the state of PA in half essentially...so we are essentially right on the border of 30-35/35-40 and as i said prior south of there is 35-40 and basically would support rain..Now is the ECM too warm? Too early to know but i would be leaning towards a rainy scenario with maybe some back end frozen..but normally backend does not work out to well..yet alone it being late march.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 12 Z ECM looks warm enough to keep everything as all rain..at least as far as Majority of PA is concerned.. Temps generally look to be 35-40 ... Good. Keep the snow the heck out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 its pretty scary how the 28z gfs resembles the mid feb storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 its pretty scary how the 28z gfs resembles the mid feb storm Um sounds scary especially the 28Z LOL So are we talking 12/18/00/6 j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 Um sounds scary especially the 28Z LOL So are we talking 12/18/00/6 j/k lol hahhaha its been a long day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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