HM Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Canada should have a lot of cold in the 2nd half of the month still...but we'll certainly be at the mercy of the wavelengths in late Mar or early Apr unless a block gets large enough or close enough to give us wiggle room. That happened in Apr 1996. A west coast trough isn't so bad at this stage of the game, especially in April. I think I'm feeling this NAO block for this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 BTW there seems to be a connection between very late season snowstorms and a building strong el nino-- this happened in April 1982 as well as April 1997. And in April 1987 before the strong Niño in Winter 87-88...ask the Upstate guys some about that late April snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 In Hazleton I'll be keeping an eye out for snow until the end of the semester. Yikes... you're what, about 1600ft or so up? What's your typical last date of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I agree, and we've been talking about how the last couple of decades snowfall in the first ten days of April has been more common than the last ten days of March. April 5-10 is usually the last window for big snows around here. Yes climo does support a spike in early April. It's pretty cool and had a say in this forecast. It also has Pacific support, NAO/solar support and some modeling support already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Yes climo does support a spike in early April. It's pretty cool and had a say in this forecast. It also has Pacific support, NAO/solar support and some modeling support already. Do you think we're headed towards El Nino, and would that be a factor in this forecast given what happened in April 1997 and April 1982? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 A west coast trough isn't so bad at this stage of the game, especially in April. I think I'm feeling this NAO block for this period. This is probably why some of those milder mid winter periods turned cold and stormy so late in the game.... shorter wavelengths alter the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 And in April 1987 before the strong Niño in Winter 87-88...ask the Upstate guys some about that late April snowstorm. Wow, that must have been a really short growing season.... there was a very early season snowstorm in October 1987 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Do you think we're headed towards El Nino, and would that be a factor in this forecast given what happened in April 1997 and April 1982? HM is probably busy looking at that earthquake/tsunami coverage..... These high end earthquakes actually alter the earth's rotational period slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Hey guys...long time no chat. Who else thinks a late season snowstorm is coming April 5-10? Great to see HM post and what a great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Great to see HM back posting on here and getting set for winter's last hurrah... April 1982 ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Great to see HM back posting on here and getting set for winter's last hurrah... April 1982 ftw. Agreed that it's nice to see HM posting again. I doubt we get a repeat of April 6, 1982....I was living in central Bucks County, PA and was in 7th grade at that time. It snowed all morning into early afternoon with mid-day temps around 25 degrees (total accumulation of 5 to 6 inches of snow). Crazy stuff for April in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Agreed that it's nice to see HM posting again. I doubt we get a repeat of April 6, 1982....I was living in central Bucks County, PA and was in 7th grade at that time. It snowed all morning into early afternoon with mid-day temps around 25 degrees (total accumulation of 5 to 6 inches of snow). Crazy stuff for April in this area. Seems every year we resurrect the 1982 event which was probably a once in a 100 year deal. I was living in western Chester County at the time and it wound up being the biggest snow of that winter. Route 10 which runs N/S from Morgantown to Parkesburg had cars buried to their rooftops. Three consecutive days with lows in the teens. Awesome stuff, unlikely to see that again in my lifetime or my kids. I'm happy to just see snow in air in April against the backdrop of trees coming into leaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Seems every year we resurrect the 1982 event which was probably a once in a 100 year deal. I was living in western Chester County at the time and it wound up being the biggest snow of that winter. Route 10 which runs N/S from Morgantown to Parkesburg had cars buried to their rooftops. Three consecutive days with lows in the teens. Awesome stuff, unlikely to see that again in my lifetime or my kids. I'm happy to just see snow in air in April against the backdrop of trees coming into leaf. Well, early April events produce accumulating snow here about 1 out of 3 years on average-- 1982, 1983, 1990, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2006..... 1982, 1996 and 2003 were warning criteria events and the one in 1983 actually occurred on April 19-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 4/3/1915 ftw? I'll take another 19.4" any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Well, early April events produce accumulating snow here about 1 out of 3 years on average-- 1982, 1983, 1990, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2006..... 1982, 1996 and 2003 were warning criteria events and the one in 1983 actually occurred on April 19-20. I don't remember anything from April 1999.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Look at this sick 500mb pattern from the April 1982 snowstorm: Look at how crappy our pattern is right now: Total zonal flow with a 468dm vortex over Greenland. Also a mediocre Pacific with the low off the NW Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I don't remember anything from April 1999.... I think that one might have been March lol.... sorry. Most of the rest were minimal 1-2" scenarios, but it's still accumulating snow in April The three that really stand out are 1982, 1996, 2003. 1997 could have been a lot more if we didnt get dryslotted-- much more fell both to our north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Hey Nate.... can you make a comparison with the 500mb patterns in April 1982, April 1996 and April 2003 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Hey Nate.... can you make a comparison with the 500mb patterns in April 1982, April 1996 and April 2003 ? What were the dates of the April 96 and 03 events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 i got about 8 inches from the April 97 event, did it start March 31 and snow into April 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 What were the dates of the April 96 and 03 events? 1996 was April 9th and 10th (mainly 9th). 2003 was April 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 i got about 8 inches from the April 97 event, did it start March 31 and snow into April 1? Yes, most of it was on March 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 I think that one might have been March lol.... sorry. I had a feeling you might be thinking of the March 14th and 15th 1999 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Do you think we're headed towards El Nino, and would that be a factor in this forecast given what happened in April 1997 and April 1982? Hey Nate, sorry about the late response man. This forecast is not based on the idea of going into El Niño this warm season although it is interesting we had a downwelling kelvin wave/MJO phase 8 response this month which could perhaps allow those analogs to have some use. However, in the grand scheme of things, I don't think we are headed for an El Niño. Although, the -QBO wave coming on will be something to watch this summer. I don't think it will get going fast enough to allow something to get going this year. The wild card is the effects of the earthquake, changing the LOD/AAM slightly. This type of speed up would actually favor the atmosphere to compensate, i.e. produce El Niño like winds. Will this be a case of atmosphere forcing a weak warm ENSO? Unfortunately, I have no idea if this would be enough for that. My initial reaction is that it wouldn't. This idea for the snow threat is simple... 1. La Niña circulation in spring form as wavelengths shorten produces a low anomaly off the North American East Coast and a general -NAO. 2. The MJO moves back into La Niña phases, which is actually a good thing. Looking at previous years with similar conditions, these phase 8-1-2 jobs are actually a warm signal. 3. Overall solar cycle will begin to temporarily relax in April (although relatively speaking) which may allow the blocking to resurface. Although, I think it will either way. Timing out the waves and everything seems to fit with climo too with 4/5-10 being the risk period. I don't know about it being something historic or memorable--it is April. But things are going to grow colder. The good news is that April and May overall will dry out, alleviating the flood risk. The shortening of these wavelengths favors more of a NW, drier flow for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Man, I go away for the weekend, and HM shows up (uh, hope those events aren't correlated)! Welcome back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 The trough that JB has been talking about is on the 06 GFS. I of course feel a lot better about it happening with HM on-board. This is an officially-sanctioned crystal ball mention free post about HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 The trough that JB has been talking about is on the 06 GFS. I of course feel a lot better about it happening with HM on-board. This is an officially-sanctioned crystal ball mention free post about HM. lol i would also feel better because your 300 miles from the ocean and a thousand feet in elevation. early april snows are more common there than down here...i hope you didnt put your boots away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 lol i would also feel better because your 300 miles from the ocean and a thousand feet in elevation. early april snows are more common there than down here...i hope you didnt put your boots away lol Oh definitely not. We got accumulating snow in May several years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 Oh definitely not. We got accumulating snow in May several years ago. well 12z euro has snow at hr 210 and on from m/d line north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 well 12z euro has snow at hr 210 and on from m/d line north. Any news for next week on the EURO? Saw from a couple of other boards a pretty good cold front coming through. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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