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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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Canada should have a lot of cold in the 2nd half of the month still...but we'll certainly be at the mercy of the wavelengths in late Mar or early Apr unless a block gets large enough or close enough to give us wiggle room. That happened in Apr 1996.

A west coast trough isn't so bad at this stage of the game, especially in April. I think I'm feeling this NAO block for this period. :scooter:

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I agree, and we've been talking about how the last couple of decades snowfall in the first ten days of April has been more common than the last ten days of March. April 5-10 is usually the last window for big snows around here. ;)

Yes climo does support a spike in early April. It's pretty cool and had a say in this forecast. ;)

It also has Pacific support, NAO/solar support and some modeling support already.

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Yes climo does support a spike in early April. It's pretty cool and had a say in this forecast. ;)

It also has Pacific support, NAO/solar support and some modeling support already.

Do you think we're headed towards El Nino, and would that be a factor in this forecast given what happened in April 1997 and April 1982?

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A west coast trough isn't so bad at this stage of the game, especially in April. I think I'm feeling this NAO block for this period. :scooter:

This is probably why some of those milder mid winter periods turned cold and stormy so late in the game.... shorter wavelengths alter the end result.

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And in April 1987 before the strong Niño in Winter 87-88...ask the Upstate guys some about that late April snowstorm. Snowman.gif

Wow, that must have been a really short growing season.... there was a very early season snowstorm in October 1987 also.

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Do you think we're headed towards El Nino, and would that be a factor in this forecast given what happened in April 1997 and April 1982?

HM is probably busy looking at that earthquake/tsunami coverage.....

These high end earthquakes actually alter the earth's rotational period slightly.

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Great to see HM back posting on here and getting set for winter's last hurrah... April 1982 ftw.

Agreed that it's nice to see HM posting again.

I doubt we get a repeat of April 6, 1982....I was living in central Bucks County, PA and was in 7th grade at that time. It snowed all morning into early afternoon with mid-day temps around 25 degrees (total accumulation of 5 to 6 inches of snow). Crazy stuff for April in this area.

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Agreed that it's nice to see HM posting again.

I doubt we get a repeat of April 6, 1982....I was living in central Bucks County, PA and was in 7th grade at that time. It snowed all morning into early afternoon with mid-day temps around 25 degrees (total accumulation of 5 to 6 inches of snow). Crazy stuff for April in this area.

Seems every year we resurrect the 1982 event which was probably a once in a 100 year deal. I was living

in western Chester County at the time and it wound up being the biggest snow of that winter. Route 10 which

runs N/S from Morgantown to Parkesburg had cars buried to their rooftops. Three consecutive days with

lows in the teens. Awesome stuff, unlikely to see that again in my lifetime or my kids. I'm happy to just see

snow in air in April against the backdrop of trees coming into leaf.

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Seems every year we resurrect the 1982 event which was probably a once in a 100 year deal. I was living

in western Chester County at the time and it wound up being the biggest snow of that winter. Route 10 which

runs N/S from Morgantown to Parkesburg had cars buried to their rooftops. Three consecutive days with

lows in the teens. Awesome stuff, unlikely to see that again in my lifetime or my kids. I'm happy to just see

snow in air in April against the backdrop of trees coming into leaf.

Well, early April events produce accumulating snow here about 1 out of 3 years on average-- 1982, 1983, 1990, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2006..... 1982, 1996 and 2003 were warning criteria events and the one in 1983 actually occurred on April 19-20.

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Well, early April events produce accumulating snow here about 1 out of 3 years on average-- 1982, 1983, 1990, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2006..... 1982, 1996 and 2003 were warning criteria events and the one in 1983 actually occurred on April 19-20.

I don't remember anything from April 1999....

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I don't remember anything from April 1999....

I think that one might have been March lol.... sorry. Most of the rest were minimal 1-2" scenarios, but it's still accumulating snow in April :P The three that really stand out are 1982, 1996, 2003. 1997 could have been a lot more if we didnt get dryslotted-- much more fell both to our north and south.

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Do you think we're headed towards El Nino, and would that be a factor in this forecast given what happened in April 1997 and April 1982?

Hey Nate, sorry about the late response man. This forecast is not based on the idea of going into El Niño this warm season although it is interesting we had a downwelling kelvin wave/MJO phase 8 response this month which could perhaps allow those analogs to have some use. However, in the grand scheme of things, I don't think we are headed for an El Niño. Although, the -QBO wave coming on will be something to watch this summer. I don't think it will get going fast enough to allow something to get going this year. The wild card is the effects of the earthquake, changing the LOD/AAM slightly. This type of speed up would actually favor the atmosphere to compensate, i.e. produce El Niño like winds. Will this be a case of atmosphere forcing a weak warm ENSO? Unfortunately, I have no idea if this would be enough for that. My initial reaction is that it wouldn't.

This idea for the snow threat is simple...

1. La Niña circulation in spring form as wavelengths shorten produces a low anomaly off the North American East Coast and a general -NAO.

2. The MJO moves back into La Niña phases, which is actually a good thing. Looking at previous years with similar conditions, these phase 8-1-2 jobs are actually a warm signal.

3. Overall solar cycle will begin to temporarily relax in April (although relatively speaking) which may allow the blocking to resurface. Although, I think it will either way.

Timing out the waves and everything seems to fit with climo too with 4/5-10 being the risk period. I don't know about it being something historic or memorable--it is April. But things are going to grow colder. The good news is that April and May overall will dry out, alleviating the flood risk. The shortening of these wavelengths favors more of a NW, drier flow for the Northeast.

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The trough that JB has been talking about is on the 06 GFS.

I of course feel a lot better about it happening with HM on-board.

This is an officially-sanctioned crystal ball mention free post about HM. :scooter:

lol i would also feel better because your 300 miles from the ocean and a thousand feet in elevation. early april snows are more common there than down here...i hope you didnt put your boots away lol

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