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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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GFS has been tanking the NAO in that period. So I'd have to say that there are chances of stormy weather and that it may well be rather chilly. Haven't seen the EC that far out, I only see thru day 10 and thru then the EC is positive with the NAO (at least the 0Z was). But then again, I think the GFS is too thru day 10.

So you are thinking stormy and cold based on the GFS?

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GFS has been tanking the NAO in that period. So I'd have to say that there are chances of stormy weather and that it may well be rather chilly. Haven't seen the EC that far out, I only see thru day 10 and thru then the EC is positive with the NAO (at least the 0Z was). But then again, I think the GFS is too thru day 10.

fwiw 12z euro, still has the pos nao like 0z.

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*** ALERT *** POSSIBLE East coast storm for MARCH 15-16-17... 12z EURO - UKMET and CANADIAN show Coastal Low developing 3/15 with Large cold HIGH to the North over eastern Great Lakes / North New England ...

SNOW into Shenandoah western MD WVA central and Northeast PA northwest NJ much of NY and New England???? Stong winds / heavy rains along eastern VA eastern MD DE s NJ

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fwiw the euro brings some snow into phl next tuesday timeframe.

Not that I think this particular event will happen, but it's certainly not crazy to think that our area could get a snow event during the 2nd half of March or even early April.

I'm not necessarily rooting for another snow event...just thinking there is a decent chance of it happening IMO.

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yea, but its rain.

Probably snow if that track were to be realized. 850s are like -7C with precip falling but for some reason the GFS shows warm surface temperatures. Doesn't make any sense but it would definitely be snow looking at the way the system develops.

Euro also shows a cold pattern at Day 10 with a big block over Western Canada/AK...

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Probably snow if that track were to be realized. 850s are like -7C with precip falling but for some reason the GFS shows warm surface temperatures. Doesn't make any sense but it would definitely be snow looking at the way the system develops.

Euro also shows a cold pattern at Day 10 with a big block over Western Canada/AK...

The euro doesn't look like a cold pattern for here at all to me. pos epo, pos nao, neutral ao, neutral to pos pna... the cold shot in the east is on its way out being followed pacific air.

In terms of the snow, im not optimistic on that timeframe, i think early next week has the better shot at some flakes. I think the reason why the gfs is so warm at the surface is because the big time southerly flow out ahead of that storm, just takes to long to pull down the cold air.

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The euro doesn't look like a cold pattern for here at all to me. pos epo, pos nao, neutral ao, neutral to pos pna... the cold shot in the east is on its way out being followed pacific air.

In terms of the snow, im not optimistic on that timeframe, i think early next week has the better shot at some flakes. I think the reason why the gfs is so warm at the surface is because the big time southerly flow out ahead of that storm, just takes to long to pull down the cold air.

Yeah it's a much briefer cold shot on the 12z ECM than the 18z GFS because it doesn't show as much connection between the -EPO block and the +PNA. ECM looks to overwhelm the country with warm Pacific air, especially on the East Coast...18z GFS gets there too with 850s spiking over 10C in the longer range with the trough returning to the West and Northern Plains. The Canadian cold also looks to be weakening fast.

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Probably snow if that track were to be realized. 850s are like -7C with precip falling but for some reason the GFS shows warm surface temperatures. Doesn't make any sense but it would definitely be snow looking at the way the system develops.

Well, it is March :whistle:

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Hey guys...long time no chat. Who else thinks a late season snowstorm is coming April 5-10? :snowman:

HM how are you? hope all is well....and you enjoyed another snowy winter in jersey.(thats if your still live here) So you think there might be a window in april?

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HM how are you? hope all is well....and you enjoyed another snowy winter in jersey.(thats if your still live here) So you think there might be a window in april?

Things are fine, I'd say. I missed out on a lot of the mega bands this year but still enjoyed another snowy winter. I think I am on the -EPO/NAO bandwagon late March into early April. I will enjoy the surge of warmth for St. Patrick's Day! Probably this entire period is at risk, but man there is something about that April window!

Also, this coastal next week may not be so lame as the models may have you believe. This still seems like a possible candidate for something before we get a warm shot.

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Things are fine, I'd say. I missed out on a lot of the mega bands this year but still enjoyed another snowy winter. I think I am on the -EPO/NAO bandwagon late March into early April. I will enjoy the surge of warmth for St. Patrick's Day! Probably this entire period is at risk, but man there is something about that April window!

Also, this coastal next week may not be so lame as the models may have you believe. This still seems like a possible candidate for something before we get a warm shot.

when you speak, i listen lol..You made some great calls this year (dec 26, jan 11th, jan 26th)...i dont know how you do it but congrats..Early April ftw?

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when you speak, i listen lol..You made some great calls this year (dec 26, jan 11th, jan 26th)...i dont know how you do it but congrats..Early April ftw?

Yeah right.......i think he has a crystal ball.....did it back in 05 also......febuary storms and early march.

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Things are fine, I'd say. I missed out on a lot of the mega bands this year but still enjoyed another snowy winter. I think I am on the -EPO/NAO bandwagon late March into early April. I will enjoy the surge of warmth for St. Patrick's Day! Probably this entire period is at risk, but man there is something about that April window!

Also, this coastal next week may not be so lame as the models may have you believe. This still seems like a possible candidate for something before we get a warm shot.

I definitely think the models might be suppressing the coastal a bit, but doesn't that lack of amplification sort of make sense given the +NAO tendency with the vortex centered near Baffin Island? Do you think the vort can dig enough to give us a storm? I was thinking that March 15th or might be our last window for a storm, but you see something popping up later than that? I wonder if it has anything to do with the weird ENSO pattern now with the warmth in the subsurface yet very cold SSTs/strong trades...changes coming in the Pacific, HM?

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Things are fine, I'd say. I missed out on a lot of the mega bands this year but still enjoyed another snowy winter. I think I am on the -EPO/NAO bandwagon late March into early April. I will enjoy the surge of warmth for St. Patrick's Day! Probably this entire period is at risk, but man there is something about that April window!

Also, this coastal next week may not be so lame as the models may have you believe. This still seems like a possible candidate for something before we get a warm shot.

Canada should have a lot of cold in the 2nd half of the month still...but we'll certainly be at the mercy of the wavelengths in late Mar or early Apr unless a block gets large enough or close enough to give us wiggle room. That happened in Apr 1996.

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when you speak, i listen lol..You made some great calls this year (dec 26, jan 11th, jan 26th)...i dont know how you do it but congrats..Early April ftw?

Thanks a lot for the kind words. Don't forget about next week. The pattern is actually more favorable than first glace would indicate.

Yeah right.......i think he has a crystal ball.....did it back in 05 also......febuary storms and early march.

LOL that damn crystal ball is starting to get old...

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Things are fine, I'd say. I missed out on a lot of the mega bands this year but still enjoyed another snowy winter. I think I am on the -EPO/NAO bandwagon late March into early April. I will enjoy the surge of warmth for St. Patrick's Day! Probably this entire period is at risk, but man there is something about that April window!

Also, this coastal next week may not be so lame as the models may have you believe. This still seems like a possible candidate for something before we get a warm shot.

I agree, and we've been talking about how the last couple of decades snowfall in the first ten days of April has been more common than the last ten days of March. April 5-10 is usually the last window for big snows around here. ;)

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I definitely think the models might be suppressing the coastal a bit, but doesn't that lack of amplification sort of make sense given the +NAO tendency with the vortex centered near Baffin Island? Do you think the vort can dig enough to give us a storm? I was thinking that March 15th or might be our last window for a storm, but you see something popping up later than that? I wonder if it has anything to do with the weird ENSO pattern now with the warmth in the subsurface yet very cold SSTs/strong trades...changes coming in the Pacific, HM?

Yes I think this setup isn't the best. It all relies on the delicate balance of the timing of the western trough and the s/w phasing across the East. The models are likely to continue to change frequently with such a scenario ... unlike that of our normal -NAO induced storms which are forced to happen. But I agree that this isn't some harmless open wave that hardly makes a dent on the surface chart. It's going to be close.

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