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Medium-long range thread


tombo82685

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FWIW, the new Euro weeklies show warmth Mar 7-13, then a return to normal Mar 14-27, then cool in Week 4. Definitely cooler than last week's weeklies. They've been pretty inconsistent over the last few weeks.

MJO is trending stronger into P8 for next week, which teleconnects to a ridge over the West Coast, which is actually in the models, but the shorter wavelengths actually bring the coldest air into the Plains/Lakes instead of the East Coast.

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FWIW, the new Euro weeklies show warmth Mar 7-13, then a return to normal Mar 14-27, then cool in Week 4. Definitely cooler than last week's weeklies. They've been pretty inconsistent over the last few weeks.

MJO is trending stronger into P8 for next week, which teleconnects to a ridge over the West Coast, which is actually in the models, but the shorter wavelengths actually bring the coldest air into the Plains/Lakes instead of the East Coast.

It will turn cooler just as spring officially arrives....trend seems to be heading in that direction.

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Here is what am I talking about with the shorter wavelengths. Compare this: http://www.meteo.psu...IDE_0z/f168.gif to this: http://raleighwx.ame...Phase8500mb.gif

And that's how you bust forecasts if you don't really know what you're doing.

Anyway to forecast shorter wave lengths? Or is it just the type of season dictates the wavelength?

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Anyway to forecast shorter wave lengths? Or is it just the type of season dictates the wavelength?

Short answer: not to my knowledge.

Longer answer: the wavelength of mid-latitude Rossby waves is related to the pole-to-equator temperature gradient. The stronger the gradient, the longer the wavelengths (which is why we talk about wavelengths shortening in spring and getting longer in fall). This is only an idea I've been throwing around in my head, but since this is a La Nina, the P2E gradient is weaker than normal because the tropics are cooler. On average, that should mean wavelengths will be shorter than climo and could throw off some of the composite analogs. Not sure how much water that holds, but it's a theory.

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per joseph bastardi

http://bit.ly/hXm8sw. See that big trough Japan by day 12. Look out eastern US by day 20!

I'm trying to take the next step in being a better participant in forecast threads by trying to understand what information can be gleaned by these kinds of charts. Would you care to explain (briefly)?

BTW, your posts are aok in my book.

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but the shorter wavelengths could throw that connection off.

factoring in time of year and comparison to average (since the average hits 50 in the next few days) any cold shot that results from that Japan trough in the teleconnection is probably just highs in the 40's...whoopdeedoo.

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0z GFS goes nuts next week.. cutoff low down southm destroys the mid atlantic...

** this 60hr precip map does not include this current storm**

gfs_p60_162s.gif

Almost looks like convective feedback issues on the 850 slp/precip maps.. Here's the 500 mb chart though:

gfs_500_144s.gif

ray, is it safe to say " if this was winter".. o wait, FEB 2010 :weight_lift: LOL ( yes, i know, different synoptic set up back then)

12z EURO almost has this solution, not as amp'd and as juicy though..

f168.gif

Although cut off's are very hard for models to handle this far out, wouldn't place any bets on any particular solution...

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Major changes to the MJO forecast today. Not sure of the downstream implications yet, but may need to revise 2nd half of March forecast.

Meh, not really. The very cold temperatures at the end of the month are probably off the table. It looks like more roller coaster stuff with cutters through the last week. If we get a strong push into P5/6 by the end of the month, we could actually torch to close out March. It's also dependent on whether the tropics are the dominant forcing or not. There is another mountain torque event going on now, so if that becomes dominant, the -NAO forecasts will verify. Tricky forecast here.

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

combined_image.png

gltaum.90day.gif

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