am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Not to add to JI's trolling but... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CF6PHL&version=1&max=61 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CF6DCA&version=1&max=61 Those say PHL +2.4, DCA +3.6 Wow, the map I was looking at is different than that. Point taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 BTW, I just wanted to clarify that the main thing I'm concerned about in the long range is snow, for those who hadn't guessed that yet... mainly because of the second line in my signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 March snows are horrible. Its like a one night stand, you have fun for the one night then its gone before you wake up the next morning They also tend be somewhat sloppy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 FWIW, the new Euro weeklies show warmth Mar 7-13, then a return to normal Mar 14-27, then cool in Week 4. Definitely cooler than last week's weeklies. They've been pretty inconsistent over the last few weeks. MJO is trending stronger into P8 for next week, which teleconnects to a ridge over the West Coast, which is actually in the models, but the shorter wavelengths actually bring the coldest air into the Plains/Lakes instead of the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Here is what am I talking about with the shorter wavelengths. Compare this: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTWIDE_0z/f168.gif to this: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/MarchPhase8500mb.gif And that's how you bust forecasts if you don't really know what you're doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 FWIW, the new Euro weeklies show warmth Mar 7-13, then a return to normal Mar 14-27, then cool in Week 4. Definitely cooler than last week's weeklies. They've been pretty inconsistent over the last few weeks. MJO is trending stronger into P8 for next week, which teleconnects to a ridge over the West Coast, which is actually in the models, but the shorter wavelengths actually bring the coldest air into the Plains/Lakes instead of the East Coast. It will turn cooler just as spring officially arrives....trend seems to be heading in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Here is what am I talking about with the shorter wavelengths. Compare this: http://www.meteo.psu...IDE_0z/f168.gif to this: http://raleighwx.ame...Phase8500mb.gif And that's how you bust forecasts if you don't really know what you're doing. Anyway to forecast shorter wave lengths? Or is it just the type of season dictates the wavelength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Anyway to forecast shorter wave lengths? Or is it just the type of season dictates the wavelength? Short answer: not to my knowledge. Longer answer: the wavelength of mid-latitude Rossby waves is related to the pole-to-equator temperature gradient. The stronger the gradient, the longer the wavelengths (which is why we talk about wavelengths shortening in spring and getting longer in fall). This is only an idea I've been throwing around in my head, but since this is a La Nina, the P2E gradient is weaker than normal because the tropics are cooler. On average, that should mean wavelengths will be shorter than climo and could throw off some of the composite analogs. Not sure how much water that holds, but it's a theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 per joseph bastardi http://bit.ly/hXm8sw. See that big trough Japan by day 12. Look out eastern US by day 20! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 per joseph bastardi http://bit.ly/hXm8sw. See that big trough Japan by day 12. Look out eastern US by day 20! but the shorter wavelengths could throw that connection off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 per joseph bastardi http://bit.ly/hXm8sw. See that big trough Japan by day 12. Look out eastern US by day 20! I'm trying to take the next step in being a better participant in forecast threads by trying to understand what information can be gleaned by these kinds of charts. Would you care to explain (briefly)? BTW, your posts are aok in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 but the shorter wavelengths could throw that connection off. factoring in time of year and comparison to average (since the average hits 50 in the next few days) any cold shot that results from that Japan trough in the teleconnection is probably just highs in the 40's...whoopdeedoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 the EURO at day 10 is the worst ive seen it look in 9 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 18 Z GFS says snow /ice? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_204s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_216s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_228s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_240s.gif Nice to view for 6 hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 the EURO at day 10 is the worst ive seen it look in 9 years what, 3-4 inches of rain over a 10 day span isn't exciting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 is it me or is there more QPF with rainstorms than snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 is it me or is there more QPF with rainstorms than snowstorms? Yes. With warmer temperatures, more water can exist as a vapor in the air, increasing precipitable water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yes. With warmer temperatures, more water can exist as a vapor in the air, increasing precipitable water. Hence why saying "just imagine if it was snow" is actually rather foolish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 0z GFS goes nuts next week.. cutoff low down southm destroys the mid atlantic... ** this 60hr precip map does not include this current storm** Almost looks like convective feedback issues on the 850 slp/precip maps.. Here's the 500 mb chart though: ray, is it safe to say " if this was winter".. o wait, FEB 2010 LOL ( yes, i know, different synoptic set up back then) 12z EURO almost has this solution, not as amp'd and as juicy though.. Although cut off's are very hard for models to handle this far out, wouldn't place any bets on any particular solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The 0z Euro has similar at Day 10 but the snow/no snow line is generally across the middle of the middle and not along the M/D line (GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 15th-16th needs some attention That looks cold enough for a majority of PA Onion snow FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 15th-16th needs some attention That looks cold enough for a majority of PA Onion snow FTW? It's ten days away and the Euro says SE PA is gon rain. Get it within 7 days and then start tracking it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 euro is dropping 3-4 inches of rain for the area from del river west. With 1.5-2.5 with this event, then another 1-1.5 for later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I would not rely upon any model at more than a few days out., although I think that toward the latter part of March we will get colder but it will probably be just for the most part cold 40 and 50 degree rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 euro has a wet snow event at day 9.5 of a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Euro taketh away the snow "threat" for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Major changes to the MJO forecast today. Not sure of the downstream implications yet, but may need to revise 2nd half of March forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Major changes to the MJO forecast today. Not sure of the downstream implications yet, but may need to revise 2nd half of March forecast. Meh, not really. The very cold temperatures at the end of the month are probably off the table. It looks like more roller coaster stuff with cutters through the last week. If we get a strong push into P5/6 by the end of the month, we could actually torch to close out March. It's also dependent on whether the tropics are the dominant forcing or not. There is another mountain torque event going on now, so if that becomes dominant, the -NAO forecasts will verify. Tricky forecast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Euro taketh away the snow "threat" for next week. Euro is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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