Ji Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Seriously, why are you trolling me in this thread? You keep popping in here like what I post is in anyway applicable to you or that you add any value to the conversation. Here's a hint: you don't. you live 100 miles north of me. We get the same weather and this is the only medium range discussion on the board right now. I have disagreed with your views that cold is coming back for sometime and i dont see any signs of a wintry pattern for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I was expecting this to happen by early January already. The fact that it waited until mid-February is amazing. 40" when I called for 15-23", lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 you live 100 miles north of me. We get the same weather and this is the only medium range discussion on the board right now. I have disagreed with your views that cold is coming back for sometime and i dont see any signs of a wintry pattern for us. Yeah, except for the fact that the area between you and me is pretty significant as far as anomalies go this month, same for the area between PHL and LGA. Look at February, PHL was near normal and DCA was like 4F warmer than normal. Snow is over for the most part and I've said as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The Euro holds out hope at the end of its run, although its missing alot of key players that make its solution suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 you live 100 miles north of me. We get the same weather and this is the only medium range discussion on the board right now. I have disagreed with your views that cold is coming back for sometime and i dont see any signs of a wintry pattern for us. And beyond that, you've offered no analysis and that's the annoying point. I'm ok with people disagreeing with me. I'm still new at this and certainly far from perfect. But just dropping in and telling me I'm wrong is dumb and pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Ok, now that the 11-15d GEFS mean has flipped, I'm a bit more concerned about my forecast. First time i have actually looked at the medium/long term in a while. To me this is basically the december pattern minus the -nao. December consistently featured a -pna, but what helped us was the extreme blocking. Take that blocking away and you get what we have now. Even with a neutral to -epo, there is nothing to bring down the cold. The nao is raging positive which is causing glancing blows of cold. The MJO, does look to go into a favorable period, but align that with the other teleconnections and its trumped. Honestly, IMHO our pattern is dominated by 2 things The nao and ao in winter time. This december was a classic example of how the atlantic can dominate a ****ty pacific, when those teleconnections are alinged accordingly. The next 2 weeks continues to look like a cutter breeding ground with days of warm and days of cold. Snow i think is basically done with unless we can get a clipper or changeover from rain as a storm is moving out. Tropical and thunderstorm thread may be hoisted in the next coming weeks as we get closer to their timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Anyone else think we stand to see a significant tropical threat this summer with continued high pressure locked in over the Atlantic? Seems like Hurricanes would be in a favorable enviornment under the high and then turn the corner into the SE US as they round the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Euro and GFS appear to be brewing something for next thurs/friday timeframe. Keep hope alive, no matter how slim they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Anyone else think we stand to see a significant tropical threat this summer with continued high pressure locked in over the Atlantic? Seems like Hurricanes would be in a favorable enviornment under the high and then turn the corner into the SE US as they round the corner. Might as well make a thread on it, instead of mucking this one up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 First time i have actually looked at the medium/long term in a while. To me this is basically the december pattern minus the -nao. December consistently featured a -pna, but what helped us was the extreme blocking. Take that blocking away and you get what we have now. Even with a neutral to -epo, there is nothing to bring down the cold. The nao is raging positive which is causing glancing blows of cold. The MJO, does look to go into a favorable period, but align that with the other teleconnections and its trumped. Honestly, IMHO our pattern is dominated by 2 things The nao and ao in winter time. This december was a classic example of how the atlantic can dominate a ****ty pacific, when those teleconnections are alinged accordingly. The next 2 weeks continues to look like a cutter breeding ground with days of warm and days of cold. Snow i think is basically done with unless we can get a clipper or changeover from rain as a storm is moving out. Tropical and thunderstorm thread may be hoisted in the next coming weeks as we get closer to their timeframe. Yup, seems like we are in this rollercoaster pattern wrt temps for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yeah, except for the fact that the area between you and me is pretty significant as far as anomalies go this month, same for the area between PHL and LGA. Look at February, PHL was near normal and DCA was like 4F warmer than normal. Snow is over for the most part and I've said as much. Not to add to JI's trolling but... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CF6PHL&version=1&max=61 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CF6DCA&version=1&max=61 Those say PHL +2.4, DCA +3.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Euro and GFS appear to be brewing something for next thurs/friday timeframe. Keep hope alive, no matter how slim they are. I am with you, Rob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I am with you, Rob. Euro maps are gorgeous. I wish it were 48 hours out and not 204 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Euro maps are gorgeous. I wish it were 48 hours out and not 204 though. lol you mean 222 hrs? i don't see how beautiful it is...its rain to like 3-6 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 lol you mean 216 hrs? i don't see how beautiful it is...its rain to like 3-6 inches of snow Its actually 204-210 hours. Lots of precip already fell thru hour 216. Im just messing around anyway. Its a super fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Its actually 204-210 hours. Lots of precip already fell thru hour 216. Im just messing around anyway. Its a super fantasy storm. lol yea the storm is, i was going off when it actually shows snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 lol yea the storm is, i was going off when it actually shows snow. OK. But thats still hour 216. At least for up here. Verbatim, its actually a little more then 3"-6" for parts of NJ and NYC area. But again, super fantasy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 lol yea the storm is, i was going off when it actually shows snow. It doesn't seem as if there's much support for a storm with a +NAO and a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 OK. But thats still hour 216. At least for up here. Verbatim, its actually a little more then 3"-6" for parts of NJ and NYC area. But again, super fantasy... im not even sure why i argued the pt with a storm 9 days awy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 yea im not even sure why i argued the pt with a storm 9 days awy. HAHA. Boredom. Im with you on that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 lol you mean 222 hrs? i don't see how beautiful it is...its rain to like 3-6 inches of snow Where do I sign up for that??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Where do I sign up for that??? lol i don't want to even start discussing it, its not even worth wasting valuable energy typing about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 meanwhile, temps down to zero degrees here in Monmouth county! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 meanwhile, temps down to fifty degrees here in Monmouth county! fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 lol i don't want to even start discussing it, its not even worth wasting valuable energy typing about it. You cant resist though. Even though you are in spring mode, deep inside you are craving a last hoorah. GFS before truncation looks like it was setting up a heavy rain to snow bomb as well. LOL. Super fantasy range model concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 fixed yea, wtf is he talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 fixed ha ha thanks. That Belmar reporting station always seems to have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 You cant resist though. Even though you are in spring mode, deep inside you are craving a last hoorah. GFS before truncation looks like it was setting up a heavy rain to snow bomb as well. LOL. Super fantasy range model concensus. Lol not over something 9 days away. March snows are horrible, its snows then its gone the next day. Its like a one night stand, you have fun for the one night then its gone before you wake up the next morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 yea, wtf is he talking about? my weather obs, KBLM is all out of wack. It shows 0 for my current temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 my weather obs, KBLM is all out of wack. It shows 0 for my current temp. Apparently the program that produce that graphic doesn't know what to do when there is no temperature reported (BLM hasn't reported a temp for several hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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