phlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Someone will roll out the April, 1915 analog... ChrisL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 ChrisL? He stays in the NYC forum now so probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 FWIW ... Rob Guarino (a well respected Philly met) is going with above normal temps and precip for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 FWIW ... Rob Guarino (a well respected Philly met) is going with above normal temps and precip for March. as he should. There is no sign of any cold air reaching the east coast anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 as he should. There is no sign of any cold air reaching the east coast anytime soon Yeah, there is zero cold air anywhere. Day 3 Day 4 Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yeah, there is zero cold air anywhere. Why are you giving him the time of day? For that matter, why is Ji in this forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yeah, there is zero cold air anywhere. Day 3 Day 4 Day 7 This is March, we will a few cold days embedded between the warmth but this is certainly not a cold Pattern. Until we get blocking or a PNA, we will have rollercoaster temps with warm days out dueling the colder days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 This is March, we will a few cold days embedded between the warmth but this is certainly not a cold Pattern. Until we get blocking or a PNA, we will have rollercoaster temps with warm days out dueling the colder days Gee, where have I heard that before? I haven't really changed my thoughts all week, FWIW. I think we still end up in a roller coaster pattern for a while. A few days torch, then a few days of colder weather behind fronts. The presence a Hudson Bay vortex means cold will never be too far away and the HBV is in the ensembles through the middle of March. The strongest cold will be over the N Rockies/N Plains/Great Lakes, but will make periodic intrusions into our area. I think there will chances for snow in our area, at least enough that we'll be tracking short term models, but they'll most likely end up as rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Gee, where have I heard that before? I think the second half of the month will make it around normal,especially if we go by the 1981-2010 data which is over 1 degree higher for march then the 1971-2010 figures. If it stays stormy we may end up with above average snow which will still not be much because most places in the area only get a few inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I'm ready for spring, not sure about others. After a few days in the 60s I got excited about the warm weather. Pretty tired of the cold at this point. That said, I don't have high hopes for long-term warmth yet. It seems both the warm, in its limited capacity, and the cold will be transient for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Extra long range looks A+ around Dec.5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I still think the MJO will go into Phase 7/8 by mid-month sending up a -EPO or +PNA and the month will end up cooler than normal here. I've busted before in the medium range, but that's what I see right now. Maybe it's my tropical bias, I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 D7 on the GFS/GEFS looks interesting for Philly north. There could be some snow chances. Thread the needle, yes, but that's no surprise in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS and EC, plus ensembles, build a ranging + NAO after about March 6th. GFS and ensembles also drop the PNA off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 D7 on the GFS/GEFS looks interesting for Philly north. There could be some snow chances. Thread the needle, yes, but that's no surprise in March. I just looked at yesterday's 12z GFS and it's clear as a bell on Day 7. Are you talking about day 6 when precip pulls away? It *might* end as snow north of Philly...key word in asterisks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS and EC, plus ensembles, build a ranging + NAO after about March 6th. GFS and ensembles also drop the PNA off a cliff. Yeah, but they also have ridging across BC and a Hudson Bay vortex. Still looks roller coaster-y to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yeah, but they also have ridging across BC and a Hudson Bay vortex. Still looks roller coaster-y to me. Snow unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Snow unlikely. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 no cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 no cold ur had ur all time winter last year. might as well give up on snow for now...come back to the board in 20yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 ur had ur all time winter last year. might as well give up on snow for now...come back to the board in 20yrs. 2nd winter in a row where Mid Feb-March has been an slaughterhouse for winter weather lovers in the DC-PHL corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 disaster OH NOES THE 12 DAY GFS SHOWS A TORCH! THE SKY IS FALLING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 2nd winter in a row where Mid Feb-March has been an slaughterhouse for winter weather lovers in the DC-PHL corridor Not in PHL. We had a good snow in late Feb last year (although NYC obviously got the brunt of it). That was it, but after 80" of snow I was good to go. It was in the 60s/70s by mid march and never looked back. Perfect transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 2nd winter in a row where Mid Feb-March has been an slaughterhouse for winter weather lovers in the DC-PHL corridor Did the MA people kick you out? This is the second day you've attacked our forum with your "winter is over" posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Ok, now that the 11-15d GEFS mean has flipped, I'm a bit more concerned about my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Ok, now that the 11-15d GEFS mean has flipped, I'm a bit more concerned about my forecast. no reason to be concerned. The signs for a warm March have been there for the past several weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 no reason to be concerned. The signs for a warm March have been there for the past several weeks Seriously, why are you trolling me in this thread? You keep popping in here like what I post is in anyway applicable to you or that you add any value to the conversation. Here's a hint: you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Seriously, why are you trolling me in this thread? I've always thought it was going to be a warm March south of the Mason-Dixon line, but you keep popping in here like what I post is in anyway applicable to you. Now that JB is no longer at Accu to give him hours of viewing entertainment he needs someone to troll to kill time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Sadly, winter has run out of gas after a heck of a December and January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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