ptb127 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Bring on spring! I hope the long range Euro is correct. It was a great winter. What does/did the long range Euro say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 What does/did the long range Euro say? cutoff low in the south and warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I'm always up for a spring that starts in April. I like cold Marches. GFS still has the blockiness in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 I'm always up for a spring that starts in April. I like cold Marches. GFS still has the blockiness in the long range. Honestly, i would take what the gfs shows with a grain of salt. Just 2-3 days ago the gfs had this system as a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Honestly, i would take what the gfs shows with a grain of salt. Just 2-3 days ago the gfs had this system as a snowstorm It was a snowstorm, just not for our locations.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Honestly, i would take what the gfs shows with a grain of salt. Just 2-3 days ago the gfs had this system as a snowstorm The GFS has been trash in days 3-5 as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I haven't really changed my thoughts all week, FWIW. I think we still end up in a roller coaster pattern for a while. A few days torch, then a few days of colder weather behind fronts. The presence a Hudson Bay vortex means cold will never be too far away and the HBV is in the ensembles through the middle of March. The strongest cold will be over the N Rockies/N Plains/Great Lakes, but will make periodic intrusions into our area. I think there will chances for snow in our area, at least enough that we'll be tracking short term models, but they'll most likely end up as rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Euro coninues with it's warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I haven't really changed my thoughts all week, FWIW. I think we still end up in a roller coaster pattern for a while. A few days torch, then a few days of colder weather behind fronts. The presence a Hudson Bay vortex means cold will never be too far away and the HBV is in the ensembles through the middle of March. The strongest cold will be over the N Rockies/N Plains/Great Lakes, but will make periodic intrusions into our area. I think there will chances for snow in our area, at least enough that we'll be tracking short term models, but they'll most likely end up as rain here. I agree with your thoughts, good to hear a pro on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Honestly, i would take what the gfs shows with a grain of salt. Just 2-3 days ago the gfs had this system as a snowstorm It's been consistent, though. 12z GFS has many opportunities if things can go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Honestly, i would take what the gfs shows with a grain of salt. Just 2-3 days ago the gfs had this system as a snowstorm Euro tracked the storm over Buffalo, 24 hours out. It was atrocious with the low placement. End result still sucked but euro did not do a good job yesterday at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 GFS and its ensembles still show the NAO staying pretty positive through the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 next ten days the euro has 2-3 inches of rain for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Euro coninues with it's warm bias. It wasn't warm enough for us yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 It's been consistent, though. 12z GFS has many opportunities if things can go right. No it doesn't unless you like wrap-around snow showers on Day 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 winter appears over. Everyone thought March would be La Nina wild but la nina had not acted like La Nina all season...i certainly didnt think March would act like a normal la nina march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 winter appears over. Everyone thought March would be La Nina wild but la nina had not acted like La Nina all season...i certainly didnt think March would act like a normal la nina march inb4 blizzard. Thanks JI. :snowman: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 With this pattern, a positive NAO along with the block N of AK getting shoved SE into the Yukon creates a strong confluence zone over SE Canada and likely means a cold pattern N of 40N beginning around Mar 7 or so. GFS and its ensembles still show the NAO staying pretty positive through the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 With this pattern, a positive NAO along with the block N of AK getting shoved SE into the Yukon creates a strong confluence zone over SE Canada and likely means a cold pattern N of 40N beginning around Mar 7 or so. No one cares about cold if its not going to snow (I certainly don't) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 It wasn't warm enough for us yesterday. None of the models are performing too well right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 So the big mountain torque event ended late last week, which means there is nothing to disturb the polar vortex and it should become stable again around Mar 7-10 or so. At the same time, though, the MJO looks to be heading towards Phase 7 around the 10th. On top of that, d(AAM)/dt is crashing through the floor (probably in response to the negative mountain torque), something we haven't seen all season. If I'm reading the GSDM stuff right (and there's a good probability I'm not, since I'm still new at it), that would mean a cold to very cold 2nd half of March. No idea if that means snow threats or not, but it will mean the end of the roller coaster temperature pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 So the big mountain torque event ended late last week, which means there is nothing to disturb the polar vortex and it should become stable again around Mar 7-10 or so. At the same time, though, the MJO looks to be heading towards Phase 7 around the 10th. On top of that, d(AAM)/dt is crashing through the floor (probably in response to the negative mountain torque), something we haven't seen all season. If I'm reading the GSDM stuff right (and there's a good probability I'm not, since I'm still new at it), that would mean a cold to very cold 2nd half of March. No idea if that means snow threats or not, but it will mean the end of the roller coaster temperature pattern. thanks adam. would love one more winter punch before 100% spring kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 So the big mountain torque event ended late last week, which means there is nothing to disturb the polar vortex and it should become stable again around Mar 7-10 or so. At the same time, though, the MJO looks to be heading towards Phase 7 around the 10th. On top of that, d(AAM)/dt is crashing through the floor (probably in response to the negative mountain torque), something we haven't seen all season. If I'm reading the GSDM stuff right (and there's a good probability I'm not, since I'm still new at it), that would mean a cold to very cold 2nd half of March. No idea if that means snow threats or not, but it will mean the end of the roller coaster temperature pattern. youve been trying to bring cold back now for the past 3 weeks. Hopefully we get one more run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 youve been trying to bring cold back now for the past 3 weeks. Hopefully we get one more run Not for you, I haven't. I was colder than the models for last week and this week for the GL/NE and I'm going to be right there. I'm on board with the models for the cool down in the 11-15d period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Just for reference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 So the big mountain torque event ended late last week, which means there is nothing to disturb the polar vortex and it should become stable again around Mar 7-10 or so. At the same time, though, the MJO looks to be heading towards Phase 7 around the 10th. On top of that, d(AAM)/dt is crashing through the floor (probably in response to the negative mountain torque), something we haven't seen all season. If I'm reading the GSDM stuff right (and there's a good probability I'm not, since I'm still new at it), that would mean a cold to very cold 2nd half of March. No idea if that means snow threats or not, but it will mean the end of the roller coaster temperature pattern. I think you will need something to get the AAM to spike back up to support cold East after mid month (since it is currently falling hard). The MT spike did its work and combined with energy entrained from the WPAC tropical heating source, will sustain higher heights in AK for awhile and dump some notable cold into the mid continent, but it seems all we can get is some occasional leaking of this into the East. One such time comes focused on this Thursday in NE especially, and then we watch to see what happens later next week into the start of the following week. By then, the effect of the MT spike should have been worked out of the system, and since there isn't any meaningful blocking left, it could warm back up for awhile. I think if we see a new AAM spike and the next round of tropical forcing tries to come east, that would be your clue for a colder pattern but by then we may be into the final 7-10 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I think if we see a new AAM spike and the next round of tropical forcing tries to come east, that would be your clue for a colder pattern but by then we may be into the final 7-10 days of the month. Yeah, I am not so good with the GWO yet. I'm trying to track the stages in the GSDM for the potential for an AAM spike, which looks like in the 15-20d time frame? I assume you're not buying into the P7 signal in the MJO for mid-month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Yeah, I am not so good with the GWO yet. I'm trying to track the stages in the GSDM for the potential for an AAM spike, which looks like in the 15-20d time frame? I assume you're not buying into the P7 signal in the MJO for mid-month? I'm not buying it yet. In fact the current pattern, thanks to the MT spike, may be closer to a true p7 look even though the OLR anomalies aren't a great fit to that phase. I wouldn't rule out another bump up in AAM down the road. I'm just leaning with a slower idea as far as impact in the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I think around here snow is possible till early april for philly and mid april for the burbs,however after late march it's hard to get big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I think around here snow is possible till early april for philly and mid april for the burbs,however after late march it's hard to get big snows. Someone will roll out the April, 1915 analog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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