tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'd like it because this winter could get more historic, but if there was a choice between this and snow, I'd take snow. gfs and euro are both gung ho on a major arctic outbreak in the 6-10 day period following the outbreak looks like a period of moderation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 gfs and euro are both gung ho on a major arctic outbreak in the 6-10 day period following the outbreak looks like a period of moderation I'd like it because this winter could get more historic, but if there was a choice between this and snow, I'd take snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm on board with some sort of moderation, but I don't think it will be a full on Nina torch and I think it will be short lived. Both the Euro and GFS show the polar vortex coming into our hemisphere through Valentine's Day and shortly after that, tropical convection will support a reestablishment of the EPO ridge. I'm not particularly good at forecasting the NAO, but both the GEFS and reforecast ensembles are showing the -NAO returning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just thought I'd toss this in here also.... its in next weeks storm thread also... JB did a special Big Dog tonight since he is out tomorrow... quick highlights: Has never seen a winter week in February before that’s coming next week…. way below normal temp’s country wide. Was looking back 50 years. Was looking at superstorms of past ’66, ’93, ‘78 Very hyped up about next week with how similar storms look. The week of all weeks of winter next week. Warm-up coming following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm on board with some sort of moderation, but I don't think it will be a full on Nina torch and I think it will be short lived. Both the Euro and GFS show the polar vortex coming into our hemisphere through Valentine's Day and shortly after that, tropical convection will support a reestablishment of the EPO ridge. I'm not particularly good at forecasting the NAO, but both the GEFS and reforecast ensembles are showing the -NAO returning as well. The only thing with the nao, is as of now it looks extremely east based. I can't see the euro ens past day 10 like you can but from what the op shows it looks very east based. Around here a weak east based nao isn't going to cut it for snow for coastals. The pattern kind of seems to be reverting back to the earlier in the year pattern, with the west coast trof, center of the country ridging and northeast being cold. This time around though, it looks like the nao won't be as negative as of now. With that in mind, the interior looks to be golden for snow events, while the coast looks like a lot of sloppy mixes. The cahirs connection does seem to pop good in the extended period, but the center of the pv looks to be pretty far north to have much of an influence to act like a block and bring in some confluence as of now. Thats my thoughts from what im seeing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The only thing with the nao, is as of now it looks extremely east based. I can't see the euro ens past day 10 like you can but from what the op shows it looks very east based. Around here a weak east based nao isn't going to cut it for snow for coastals. The pattern kind of seems to be reverting back to the earlier in the year pattern, with the west coast trof, center of the country ridging and northeast being cold. This time around though, it looks like the nao won't be as negative as of now. With that in mind, the interior looks to be golden for snow events, while the coast looks like a lot of sloppy mixes. The cahirs connection does seem to pop good in the extended period, but the center of the pv looks to be pretty far north to have much of an influence to act like a block and bring in some confluence as of now. Thats my thoughts from what im seeing right now. Everything goes flat and is useless due to scatter. There are virtually no temperature or height anomalies across the Western Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It still shocks me that we have not had one La-Nina torch all winter. When was the last time that happened? Looked at 1917-1918 and even that winter had a warmup in Feb with 2 60 degree days and a few 50 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It still shocks me that we have not had one La-Nina torch all winter. When was the last time that happened? A historic La Nina. I always forget we are in La Nina. Tourch coming!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Everything goes flat and is useless due to scatter. There are virtually no temperature or height anomalies across the Western Hemisphere. ahh ok, yea pretty much worthless then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Euro weeklies show a torch after Valentine's Day, with a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA/SE Ridge. But, it also shows a -NAO, which is kinda odd. In any case, the weeklies are showing the at-to-below normal returning after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Euro weeklies show a torch after Valentine's Day, with a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA/SE Ridge. But, it also shows a -NAO, which is kinda odd. In any case, the weeklies are showing the at-to-below normal returning after the 20th. It seems like that the general consensus of the models is to have a 3-6 day torch period then bring back the cold. Honestly i think that storm next week could play a big role in how things evolve. If that storm really bombs out to sub 950 like some of the models show, this could get the -nao process started. What does it show for the ao? I would imagine with a -nao building int the ao wouldnt be that positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It seems like that the general consensus of the models is to have a 3-6 day torch period then bring back the cold. Honestly i think that storm next week could play a big role in how things evolve. If that storm really bombs out to sub 950 like some of the models show, this could get the -nao process started. What does it show for the ao? I would imagine with a -nao building int the ao wouldnt be that positive. It's hard for me to tell what the AO looks like because I only have the maps on a Mercator projection. The polar vortex is centered over Western Canada though. It looks like the Pacific ridge is centered between the WPO and EPO positions in Weeks 3/4 with a -PNA and a -NAO with some SE ridging, if you can imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Euro weeklies show a torch after Valentine's Day, with a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA/SE Ridge. But, it also shows a -NAO, which is kinda odd. In any case, the weeklies are showing the at-to-below normal returning after the 20th. one week of torch is ok . how high can the torch go? 50's? 60's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 one week of torch is ok . how high can the torch go? 50's? 60's? For the Philly area, 850T anomalies average out 2-2.5 above normal. That would probably include at least one day in the upper 50s if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 one week of torch is ok . how high can the torch go? 50's? 60's? Looking at the 16 day GFS plot for KTTN, the highest temp was 40 degrees through 2/20. If you add 10 degrees for anomolies, we may hit 50. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttn&submit.x=2&submit.y=3# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looking at the 16 day GFS plot for KTTN, the highest temp was 40 degrees through 2/20. If you add 10 degrees for anomolies, we may hit 50. http://wxweb.meteost....x=2&submit.y=3# I think outside of philly and wilmington no one gets much above 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's hard for me to tell what the AO looks like because I only have the maps on a Mercator projection. The polar vortex is centered over Western Canada though. It looks like the Pacific ridge is centered between the WPO and EPO positions in Weeks 3/4 with a -PNA and a -NAO with some SE ridging, if you can imagine that. that sounds like swfe galore lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 that sounds like swfe galore lol Yup. That'll be the general pattern, I think. With the -NAO pattern, though, all it will take is a relaxation of the SE ridge for a day or two for something to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yup. That'll be the general pattern, I think. With the -NAO pattern, though, all it will take is a relaxation of the SE ridge for a day or two for something to come up the coast. Off topic, but when we get towards summer can you do a tropical thread here? I would like to understand them better, but i don't want to clutter up the main tropical threads with simple questions. Are you good with determining severe weather outbreaks to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, we can do a tropical thread here. I am terrible at severe wx, though. I've just never had an interest in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, we can do a tropical thread here. I am terrible at severe wx, though. I've just never had an interest in it. ok that sounds good then with the tropics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 euro op shows exactly what adam said about the weeklies. Basically the se ridge rares its head, but there is no sign of a -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z gfs has a nice -epo building in the long range, but still no signs of a -nao. Need to displace that vortex over the hudson bay not baffin island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 With every climate signal pointing towards the development a robust SE ridge around Valentine's Day, I don't see this happening. Once that Se Ridge starts pumping up and showing its muscles by flexing them, we will be entering a good spring like pattern, but we must also i guess watch out for those pesky backdoor coldfronts those are tricky. Like so far am19psu, how do you see spring playing out thus far also if you have gotten a chance to take a look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think early spring will average out below normal for temps and at to above normal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think early spring will average out below normal for temps and at to above normal precip. Ok thank you, you know me from last year with the thunderstorms. So lets hope that the thunderstorms this year will be bangin and i get plenty to film. I am gonna be building a much faster computer as my at current time good computer is now worth crap the motherboard is giving out on it, i over used it for the past 7 years and alot of it was Beta parts, like the CPU and Ram, they were test items before coming out on the market, so i got plenty of good use out of it. So if i get a new computer i will be able to edit and extract faster, thus allowing me to spend more time with my wife and our dogs and also getting our house more energy efficient, I know i have alot on my plate for sure but i think in the longrun this hobby of filming for lightning content or severe storms and such might be better this year then last year. Plus I did learn alot from my storm chasing last year, just gotta learn the roads to get around faster in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think early spring will average out below normal for temps and at to above normal precip. The CFS doesn't agree with you so that puts your forecast in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The CFS doesn't agree with you so that puts your forecast in a good spot. That'll pan out if we get an early final warming in the stratosphere. Usually, Ninas have later than average final warmings though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 per teleconnections right now, we go into a pos epo neutral to slightly -nao, -pna neutral to slightly pos ao...The mjo is in the circle of death. I could see some sneaky cold air filtring down in the mid range to keep us from going to much torch with a slight -nao. The cold air is definitely located in canada with the pv just displaced a little to far north. The longer range looks like they want to build in a -epo, combine that with a -nao if we can get that and it could be pretty cold and wintry after the mid month torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 No doubt the pattern turns to poo after the 9-11 storm. Good news is that the GFS/ECM are hinting at PV disruption with the GFS quite bullish on a full PV split, ECM is on its way with PV elongation. Both show clear signals toward an east based -NAO. We all know the heights at the stratosphere don't translate exactly the same to the troposphere, but they acually look pretty suppressive which means plenty of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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