MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 We might not know until the 00z run on Monday. I'm pretty seriously jaded with the models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 NAM with the inverted trof for tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 srefs eta on board now for an event and the nam takes a step towards that direction for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Would be nice to pull a rabbit out of a hat for Tuesday, but I'm skeptical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z GFS is coming in more amped up...looks like this time it might tick closer to the 06z ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Would be nice to get the Tuesday system to come in a bit more amped as we get closer. That's been the trend this year, so hopefully we'll be tracking a legit event by tomorrow. Tough part is the northern stream to allow the southern stream a chance to amplify. It seems as though the best solutions have the northern stream staying a bit west and having the southern vortmax go up the east side of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS is over the Andrea Gail for Thursday. I'd like for it to start showing a semblance of a low closer to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ? Thursday there seemed to be alot of talk of Friday being an armageddeon storm. Is that extreme a solution totally off the table now ? Looks like a general Miller A and nothin more special that that (Yes MRG this shows how greedy I've become. I'm picking up Rays brainwaves here in Reading !!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 . . . Excuse me while I go try and deal with this before the next event comes my way. Funny thing is, as a 10 year old child such imagery is magical, but as a grown man the same image can be just plain evil. I wouldn't be totally against a brief warm-up to help deal with some of my ice issues. Nothing too major though because there's really no place for this stuff to drain except into my basement. Off topic, I know, but there's no where to vent my frustrations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Crazy Unc for Monday night/Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z GEM is tucked closer in, just outside the BM call it a compromise between yesterday's 12z and last night's 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Canadian clips the coastline with decent qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Canadian clips the coastline with decent qpf. Damn..that's 3-6 for us on CMC...maybe a tick to 4-8.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 man the 12z GFS op long range today was not fun fortunatley its just one run of one op that runs 4 times a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 man the 12z GFS op long range today was not fun fortunatley its just one run of one op that runs 4 times a day One thing though, you can see the signal for big pattern reload as we close out Feb and go into March. We'll see how bad the breakdown is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Damn..that's 3-6 for us on CMC...maybe a tick to 4-8.... GEFS says the same thing (if not more robust than the CMC).... 4-8 up to Norfolk county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS ensembles are still kind of bullish for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS ensembles are still kind of bullish for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 howd Thursday look? no time to look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 howd Thursday look? no time to look OTS for now. Euro pending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 OTS for now. Euro pending. The hype machine on the other forum is deafening. I have to come here and escape back to some realism. They apparently all think that their Savior, JB is correct about a superstorm for Thursday-Friday. Not going to happen with these ugly teleconnections the first 3 weeks of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The hype machine on the other forum is deafening. I have to come here and escape back to some realism. They apparently all think that their Savior, JB is correct about a superstorm for Thursday-Friday. Not going to happen with these ugly teleconnections the first 3 weeks of February. We're talking 5 days from now and in fact the teleconnectors are somewhat favorable in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 We're talking 5 days from now and in fact the teleconnectors are somewhat favorable in that time frame. Perhaps, but I think that people should be a little more cautious until the players arrive in the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Perhaps, but I think that people should be a little more cautious until the players arrive in the CONUS. Well caution and JB have never been mentioned too often at the same time..lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 CMC has enough low-level warmth that it shows mostly rain south and east of western MA and interior southern NH. So do the vast majority of the 9z SREFs. With a bombing low like it shows, I would think the snow line would crash SE faster. However, given the quite negative tilt trough and trends with systems in the past 1.5 months, I think the Tue system will likely trend further NW from even what the CMC shows. Damn..that's 3-6 for us on CMC...maybe a tick to 4-8.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 "Invoited" trof on the Euro for some light snow Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro has a stronger srn stream and development a little more robust to the offshore. Still mild in ern areas, but perhaps a flip to snow. Good hit for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro has a stronger srn stream and development a little more robust to the offshore. Still mild in ern areas, but perhaps a flip to snow. Good hit for Maine. I think it wants to snow in different places vs January for a spell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think it wants to snow in different places vs January for a spell... Yeah this is NNE's turn for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Hey it could trend 250 miles north like todays has. LOL As for todays' joke - we went from the US models showing a northern fringe 1-3" snow event here ...to the reality of a mixed bag and the snowstorm in northern NY and northern NE. I was too busy to look at models after 12z yesterday and I come back to see everything way north/west. So maybe that could work in our benefit with Tuesdays system. This is normal La Nina stuff now. The trend of everything cutting under to the BM may be done...... Would be nice to get the Tuesday system to come in a bit more amped as we get closer. That's been the trend this year, so hopefully we'll be tracking a legit event by tomorrow. Tough part is the northern stream to allow the southern stream a chance to amplify. It seems as though the best solutions have the northern stream staying a bit west and having the southern vortmax go up the east side of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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