A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here comes the torch at the end of the Euro run. Well maybe torch is a bad word...but definitely the whole CONUS is warming up there with the Pacific air flooding the country. Still a lot of cold in Canada though so once pattern allows more meridional flow again it would cool off quickly. Will, is the storm at the end of next week the pattern changer? Sounds like the midweek storm sets up our 50/50 low, we get pounded by heavy snow with the late week system (as per the Euro) and then the pattern flips until the end of Feb (as per Don S.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Will, is the storm at the end of next week the pattern changer? Sounds like the midweek storm sets up our 50/50 low, we get pounded by heavy snow with the late week system (as per the Euro) and then the pattern flips until the end of Feb (as per Don S.) i dont really see a 50/50 low....everything seems to be moving along i think its all more dependent on how the PV wants to interact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro Ensembles have the Tuesday signal, and offshore with the storm Thursday, but no surprise there. Anyone notice the sneaky cold that tries to come in at the end of the euro op run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro Ensembles have the Tuesday signal, and offshore with the storm Thursday, but no surprise there. Anyone notice the sneaky cold that tries to come in at the end of the euro op run?? yeah i mentioned that earlier. love those set-ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro Ensembles have the Tuesday signal, and offshore with the storm Thursday, but no surprise there. Anyone notice the sneaky cold that tries to come in at the end of the euro op run?? Yeah I mentioned the sneaky cold at the bottom of last page...while rest of CONUS torches. Keeping that PV in E Canada might help us avoid the worst of any milder pattern. Tuesday signal is growing for sure. SREFs have it...even though its weenie range for them, but 84h ETA looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Oh, sorry fellas...didn't see those posts. Well it would be nice to replenish the hit we take tomorrow. Tuesday needs some work, but it's not impossible for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 BOX barely mentions it. MON/TUE... NEXT TROF APPROACHES WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. QPF APPEARS LIGHT THUS NOT A MAJOR EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 BOX barely mentions it. MON/TUE... NEXT TROF APPROACHES WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. QPF APPEARS LIGHT THUS NOT A MAJOR EVENT. No need to play it up too much yet. Still could crap out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro Ensembles have the Tuesday signal, and offshore with the storm Thursday, but no surprise there. Anyone notice the sneaky cold that tries to come in at the end of the euro op run?? yea, normally I'd say that preludes an ice storm, but ice storm climo in Feb gets dicey with sun angle climbing... Speaking of that... we are really on the cusp with solar now. Everyday it is noticably hotter in the sun. Today was 33-35F after a low of 0F at my house in Ayer - pretty fantastic recovery over a 30+ snow pack with albedo that is mirror like. In the meantime: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...MASSACHUSETTS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Big differences between 12z and 18z NAM early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z NAM coming in much more amplified and impressive for the 7-8th threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z gfs is offshore Tuesday with a bit of an inverted trough hanging back to the primary low over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 There's a sprawling area of 0.10-0.25" QPF covering most of New England and getting into C NY and S QB from 90-96hr so there must still be a lot of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 There's a sprawling area of 0.10-0.25" QPF covering most of New England and getting into C NY and S QB from 90-96hr so there must still be a lot of spread. Is that for the GFS or Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It blows up big time right as its getting to out latitude....eastern areas get some really good qpf, but might have to deal with ptype issues early on. But all of SNE is easily over a half inch from it with 0.75"-1.00" for eastern areas. Bump for GAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Bump for GAY In dynamic cooling situations, models will not properly handle 2m temps...they just won't. Rapid cooling aloft would flip to area to a 32F snow, then maybe tick down to 30 or so...something like that is what I could envision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It blows up big time right as its getting to out latitude....eastern areas get some really good qpf, but might have to deal with ptype issues early on. But all of SNE is easily over a half inch from it with 0.75"-1.00" for eastern areas. Is it me, of does it grow warmer at the surface as the event evolves...I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 In dynamic cooling situations, models will not properly handle 2m temps...they just won't. Rapid cooling aloft would flip to area to a 32F snow, then maybe tick down to 30 or so...something like that is what I could envision. That is IF the euro scenario were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Euro has had very large diurnal sfc temp ranges since February started....it might be a sun angle issue that changes when the month flips...not sure. But I would take the 102hr Euro sfc temps with a grain of salt...check out 78h, 54h and 30h as well...they are all pretty huge jumps warmer than 6h earlier. Coast still may have to deal ptype issues early on though looking at 96h...mid-level temps are an issue there as well as sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 In dynamic cooling situations, models will not properly handle 2m temps...they just won't. Rapid cooling aloft would flip to area to a 32F snow, then maybe tick down to 30 or so...something like that is what I could envision. That's what I figured because it's the only way that I could see that as a snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What else has this....EURO, SREFs, ETA.....anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What else has this....EURO, SREFs, ETA.....anything else 12z GFS tried to do something with this. Verbatim it wasn't much. Canadian was quite a hit, just inland. Euro ensembles tried to show it as well. It's sort of complicated, so it may be something that only gives an inch or two, but given the pattern...it's not hard to see a more robust solution. I would go into this as not expecting much..but keeping an eye on it and hope to be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z GFS tried to do something with this. Verbatim it wasn't much. Canadian was quite a hit, just inland. Euro ensembles tried to show it as well. It's sort of complicated, so it may be something that only gives an inch or two, but given the pattern...it's not hard to see a more robust solution. I would go into this as not expecting much..but keeping an eye on it and hope to be pleasantly surprised. like a possible appetizer for the main event late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z GFS tried to do something with this. Verbatim it wasn't much. Canadian was quite a hit, just inland. Euro ensembles tried to show it as well. It's sort of complicated, so it may be something that only gives an inch or two, but given the pattern...it's not hard to see a more robust solution. I would go into this as not expecting much..but keeping an eye on it and hope to be pleasantly surprised. Been my thinking all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Been my thinking all along. Have FAITH Brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Have FAITH Brother! The weather couldn't care less about faith, Joe. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I remember that storm.. windy as heck That was a scary night to be out. That was the one that took of the roof of hotel I think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 like a possible appetizer for the main event late week. Craig Allen the great NY met mentioned on my drive home that he thinks Tuesday is evolving as a big deal and will force the boundary further south effectively stealing the energy from Thurs, could be a case of everyone focusing on the forest and not seeing the tree. Lots of chatter about Thursday,accuhype at work, would love to sneak Tuesday by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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