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Looking beyond Feb 5-6th event


Baroclinic Zone

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Hey at least no smart ass response this time. I know Gibbs says not to rush the change back but the Euro implies that Arctic front diving SE as the NAO develops, very encouraging signs for a late long winter.

I think the -nao that develops will be weak during the 11-15 day. Maybe in March the block is stronger, but as of now, I don't see it developing during the next 2 weeks. However, it may be enough to sneak a polar boundary south which is all the matters I guess. I'm a little uncomfortable calling for a complete reversal, because it's not a stable pattern change imo. There are signs in the ensembles that it will turn cooler in the nrn tier, but I absolutely would not rush this.

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I think the -nao that develops will be weak during the 11-15 day. Maybe in March the block is stronger, but as of now, I don't see it developing during the next 2 weeks. However, it may be enough to sneak a polar boundary south which is all the matters I guess. I'm a little uncomfortable calling for a complete reversal, because it's not a stable pattern change imo. There are signs in the ensembles that it will turn cooler in the nrn tier, but I absolutely would not rush this.

What did you think of 06z OP GFS Scott? I know it's never good to take these runs verbatim but man, that was ugly!

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What did you think of 06z OP GFS Scott? I know it's never good to take these runs verbatim but man, that was ugly!

Well it was the only model run to hold hope for next week. Other than that, it didn't look that awful imo. It had a lot of overrunning with it. It was mild late next week, and that's when we really could torch.

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last March was the only time in recorded history that we had 0.0 inches of snowfall here.

:arrowhead:

It was totally disgusting. What a lousy winter we had. I remember driving to Jay peak in late feb or early march

and almost the whole state of vermont was bare. Only piles of snow in the woods. Epic disaster.

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Agree strongly, looks as if the AO/NAO are going to tank as Canada gets a new shot of arctic air. We'll probably have to deal with a lakes cutter and 1-2 day torch but then the cold and snow threats will return after 2/20. Liking what I see in the longer range.

It's going to take it's time, but it looks to happen towards the end of the month of maybe March. I think for now it remains a weak signal...but models show signs of trying to develop it.

In the mean time, if we can get the ridge axis far enough west into the Plains, it will help promote troughing northeast of New England and hopefully push away any prolonged torch.

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:lmao:

Why? I thought last FEB-MAR were great!:axe:

Horrible in NNE.

For the period Feb. 1 onward, PWM had 3.3" snow, their lowest ever in 80 yr records, with 1981 2nd at 7.7". CAR's 16" for that period was only #2, trailing the also-awful 2006's 11.1". However, CAR's biggest ever snowfall, 33.1", came on Dec. 25-27, 2005, so at least they had some snow on the ground that winter.

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Horrible in NNE.

For the period Feb. 1 onward, PWM had 3.3" snow, their lowest ever in 80 yr records, with 1981 2nd at 7.7". CAR's 16" for that period was only #2, trailing the also-awful 2006's 11.1". However, CAR's biggest ever snowfall, 33.1", came on Dec. 25-27, 2005, so at least they had some snow on the ground that winter.

Eastern Canada last year was a source of puke elephant ****e air, this year it is balls deep in snow. A nice deep not historic NAO would be just fine, I am sure you would take a March 01 in a heartbeat.

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Eastern Canada last year was a source of puke elephant ****e air, this year it is balls deep in snow. A nice deep not historic NAO would be just fine, I am sure you would take a March 01 in a heartbeat.

Guess I would! That's Farmington's snowiest March since records began in 1893, with 58.3" (I had 55.5") and holds the records for deepest snowpack in late March. I had 48" OG on 3/31; not even in Ft.Kent did I see 4' snow that late.

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That's crazy...did your snow last through all of April that year?

I was hoping, and we carried 20"+ into midmonth, but April '01 had no measurable snow, and 3 days of 65-70 on 21-23 primed the last snowcover to disappear when the 24th reached 80. Still snowpiles into May, but the overall cover was gone. Even so, 4/23 is the latest I've carried continuous snowcover here, beating 2008 by one day.

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