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Looking beyond Feb 5-6th event


Baroclinic Zone

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HRRR looks like it was initialized in Steve's basement. It weenies out over ern mass after 07z.

LOL yea it has sucked this year after 6 like you said but apparently has been very good down there for some reason, probably a southern model. I do like the VM at the base of the trough to get us something, the NC stuff ain't ours

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Anticipating about a 2 to 4 inch type scenario for the Berks. I could envision a 5 inch lollipop somewhere in one of the orographically favored areas of S VT or at 2K in the northern Berks. Most of this area should be in the mid-level fronto stuff, so I do expect a steady light snow with some moderate bursts possible.

Models seem to imply a QPF screw zone running from BDR, BDL, ORH, to BOS or somewhere thereabouts as they are in between the mid-level forcing and the precip from the low offshore. Areas to the SE should do a little better with the southern stream moisture, but BL temps will likely be in the mid to upper 30s, favoring a mostly light rain scenario for PVD and points S and E, at least initially.

I believe the RUC is too far NW with the southern stream moisture, and that meaningful precip will have a hard time making it much NW of PVD. I have seen this bias time and again, and am mostly discounting the RUC for now.

I'd say 1 to maybe 2 inches for the BDL to ORH to BOS corridor, with an inch or less S and E of I-84, with the exception of maybe a 2 inch lolly in the hills of NE CT. Maybe next time...

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Seriously thinks Ray gets shafted the rest of the winter, look forward to the deep NAO to return with stale marine air enveloping NE MASS, oh wait that was last year, from his whining I lost track.

I whined some last night.....not today....not favoring a snowier outcome for one's own BY does not constitute whining.

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RUC hits SE MA with over .1" per hour for a few hours later tonight.

As it will continue to trend lighter and SE with the QPF over the next 12 hours and it affects nobody... C'mon you know this... you've preached it every storm

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Not sure if MPM posted this but ALY seems a little bullish. Hope they're right.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING

TO NOON EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS: SOUTHERN VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MOST OF

EASTERN NEW YORK...EXCLUDING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN

CATSKILLS.

* HAZARDS: SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...4 TO 8

INCHES HIGHER TERRAIN.

* TIMING: SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY

EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW

SHOWERS OR FLURRIES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND

HALF AN INCH PER HOUR.

* IMPACTS: COULD ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MORNING DRIVE WITH SLIPPERY

ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY TO UNDER HALF A MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES: GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE IN THE

VALLEYS...20 TO 25 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO

THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

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That will have to be watched.....RUC nailed that event a couple of weeks ago, when most guidance was whififng everone but your area.

As it will continue to trend lighter and SE with the QPF over the next 12 hours and it affects nobody... C'mon you know this... you've preached it every storm

Not always...just have to watch it.

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I also admitted that I was just spoiled and coming down off of the high......and that this winter has been epic.

JK dude. I think you get 2-3 nice refresher and look out for some nasty squalls up there tomorrow, could be some very very nasty road conditions, salt sand washed off and moist road conditions.

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