weatherMA Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I wonder if people would consider a high of 32-33F at BOS as "frigid" for Feb 7th...that's the equivalent of a 41-42F high in the other direction. I try to reserve the extreme words for stuff that is at least double digit departures. Coming out a period where -5F to -10F departures from the high were the normal...+4 or +5 feels a lot warmer. The arctic intrusion we see later this week will probably help the milder period (if it comes in strong) feel obscenely warm. Like where 53F feels like 70F type stuff. AWT. 1-3" for me. Expecting 1", hoping for 2 or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That precip shield should be watched down by NC. It's still not modeled all that well on the NAM. Now it could book more ne and scrape us, but something to watch over the next 6-10 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Like I said, I think its relative. We had high temps in the teens and 20s last week which is a solid 10 to 15 below avg so now when we are 3-5F above avg it feels like a total torch when in reality its just slightly above avg. Most of the time its all about expectations and relative comparisons rather than absolute reality. We will all be outside in our short sleeves when the high is 58F in March....in June if the high was 58F, you'd see almost everyone wearing long sleeves even though the temp isn't one iota different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It's been significantly warmer than forecast here for the past two days...which I guess adds insult to injury. I believe BOX had a high of 38 for here yesterday...actual high was 45F. Similar deal with respect to today. I didn't think using the description of a torch would cause people to get their panties in a bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z NAM is a little more robust over ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z NAM is a little more robust over ern areas. Hoist weenie warnings for 6+ buns. Temp plunging now that the sun has gone in....down to 37.4 from a high of 40.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z NAM is a little more robust over ern areas. Still has a pretty good screw zone right over my head, but who knows if it will play out exactly like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hoist weenie warnings for 6+ buns. Looks like you'll be measuring on the Celica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Today is what I'd describe as "seasonably mild" which is another way of saying "slightly above avg"....high so far today at BOS is 41F (4F above avg for Feb 7th), 39F at PVD (1F above avg), 39F at BDL (3F above avg) and 37F at ORH (5F above avg)...probably wont add any more to that except perhaps a degree with the afternoon waning on and cloud cover moving in. It certainly feels a lot milder compared to those -10 to -15 high temp departures we had last week...because it is a lot milder...by about 15-20F. But I woudn't classify it as a "torch". Just my opinion though and others can create their own subjective criteria. I know there was probably a small pocket in interior E/SE MA that was a little warmer relative to climo today...but the real "torch" possibility is not until next week sometime IMHO. We had a +10-15 departure two days ago. Felt nice then. Hit 46 here today which is several above normal. When it's several the other way it will feel very cold...but that doesn't change the fact that for these three days my average high has probably been +7...torch and felt nice particularly before the slight wind picked up today. Now it feels "normal." Boston was a +9 yesterday, Providence was +9 I can't get the climate deal to work on the BOX site but Providence was over 50 Saturday so the departure had to be at least the same amount. It's not just a matter of it feeling warmer, even from a meteorological standpoint it HAS been warm for from Providence east in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like you'll be measuring on the Celica. An inch or two.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 wait a sec, what happened to your 3-6"/4-8" event? you backtracking? 4-8 is too high..3-5 or 6 isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z NAM is a little more robust over ern areas. Looks like a .25-.3" jackpot over East Taunton at 24 hours. Too bad its spring their so it probably wont stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Still has a pretty good screw zone right over my head, but who knows if it will play out exactly like that. I don't like when you have these separate areas of qpf until it consolidates over your head. I guess we can cheer for that stuff by NC coming up, or having this stuff develop south of LI around 12z like the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 This is all going to come down to dynamics, because there is no CAA anywhere in sne. It's going to be top down type cooling. I hate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I don't like when you have these separate areas of qpf until it consolidates over your head. I guess we can cheer for that stuff by NC coming up, or having this stuff develop south of LI around 12z like the NAM shows. Can you make the conf from July 22-24... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 This is all going to come down to dynamics, because there is no CAA anywhere in sne. It's going to be top down type cooling. I hate that. Just got home.. It's 38.3 here with a dew of 28...should be able to easily start as snow in the hills and lay down at least a nice 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Just got home.. It's 38.3 here with a dew of 28...should be able to easily start as snow in the hills and lay down at least a nice 2-4 37.0\29.....dropped 3* really quickly, once it clouded up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Just got home.. It's 38.3 here with a dew of 28...should be able to easily start as snow in the hills and lay down at least a nice 2-4 Even you are 38.3F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That precip shield should be watched down by NC. It's still not modeled all that well on the NAM. Now it could book more ne and scrape us, but something to watch over the next 6-10 hours or so. Nam looks to have it to far east then whats on radar down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Can you make the conf from July 22-24... Not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 We had a +10-15 departure two days ago. Felt nice then. Hit 46 here today which is several above normal. When it's several the other way it will feel very cold...but that doesn't change the fact that for these three days my average high has probably been +7...torch and felt nice particularly before the slight wind picked up today. Now it feels "normal." Boston was a +9 yesterday, Providence was +9 I can't get the climate deal to work on the BOX site but Providence was over 50 Saturday so the departure had to be at least the same amount. It's not just a matter of it feeling warmer, even from a meteorological standpoint it HAS been warm for from Providence east in SNE. PVD hit 44F on Saturday, not 50F. Show me where they hit 50F http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KPVD.html Also yesterday mornings low temps were torch, but the highs were exactly what I've said, just a few above normal. So if you want to count the low temps as a torch, that's fine. Your backyard and surrounding areas torched on Sat night with the rainstorm but a majority of the area did not get into that warm sector. You can interpret the data how you please, but it is what it is. When you say stuff like "forget about the torch next week, its already here"...that's pretty deceiving in my book. Next week's potential has a lot more possibility of being an actual torch rather than a manifested one in your own view. BOS/ORH/PVD/BDL are going to end up averaging like +5 to +6 over these past 3 days. Seasonably mild, yes...torch? I don't think so. I'd like to see some double digit departures over a few days to call it that...but perhaps my use of the word is more stingy than yours. I don't call a -5F departure frigid either...maybe you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It's been significantly warmer than forecast here for the past two days...which I guess adds insult to injury. I believe BOX had a high of 38 for here yesterday...actual high was 45F. Similar deal with respect to today. I didn't think using the description of a torch would cause people to get their panties in a bunch. The departure on 2/1 in PVD was -9. It was +9 yesterday. 2/1 was frigid, 2/6 a torch. I don't even know why people are debating it. I guess I should say 2/5 into 2/6 was a torch...now it's just warmer than normal. +9 departures are kind of "warm." -- Scott the RUC has been running west of the NAM for a few runs now...pretty sure once again it's going to kick butt and take names. Kev could easily see 8" with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Have had light snow all afternoon here. The air feels like a good snow is moving in. Very damp airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Even you are 38.3F. That's not a worry..By 8:00 it'll be near 32..and snow will start when it's 30-31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 4-8 is too high..3-5 or 6 isn't I think there could be 3" lollies in CT, MAYBE a 5" one in western Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 i think Kev could easily give me 8". A: c'mon...this is a family place B: kev? 8"? i don't know that sounds generous to me...but ask ray. C: you posted the other day that nothing enters your fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That would be so nice!!!! LA would be a good choice for you, hour drive to Skiing ,little forecast issues, you can sit around all day at work play all day on the internet and forecast morning clouds, sunny High of 72 low of 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That's not a worry..By 8:00 it'll be near 32..and snow will start when it's 30-31 You won't cool that low by 8pm. Eventually you might, but that may be too early. Whatever, doesn't really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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