40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 we either need another storm or spring training to start soon!!! Yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Glad I went to bed. The back and forth ribbing is nauseating. My winter to date has been epic. I live in SE MA. I would say the majority of SE MA is around 150%+ of their seasonal snowfall. Yes the pattern has changed, some people just won't admit it. That's the part that's so strange. Clearly the pattern changed, whether it changes back to a more snowy pattern remains to be seen. It was two weeks late in arriving but this is essentially what I saw as the general forecast for the winter...bad December and January then a relaxing of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Flurrying here attm. Seems like a weird day. High clouds, haze. Not sure how much the temps going to move. Sitting at 25.7/23. It was 25.3 when I came down at 4:30a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Nws drops the forecast to 1-3. Awt. FTL. TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Nam looks just awful, congrats Ray, 6pack of barley coming your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Nam looks just awful, congrats Ray, 6pack of barley coming your way Has the inverted but isn't driving much dynamically thru 27...about .05 over a big portion of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Some decent precip falling at 30hrs Temps marginal coastal ct, ri MA.35+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 We should stop. Scott might not be as amused. lol Pete if you couldn't see I was screwing around last night then maybe I need to use more emoticons. I know you guys are tired from sculpting your snow but I really thought it was pretty obvious. Then again nobody noticed the three day thaw over a good portion of sne which continues today so who knows? I use a push mower and then a lawn service in season fwiw. I'd rather be with the kids at the beach than mowing. TVM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 FTL. TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE From the AFD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BLENDED GFS QPF /MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM/ WITH HPC VALUES WHICH BROUGHT TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE INTERIOR...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HIGHER TOTALS. CLOSER TO THE COAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX PROMPTED A FORECAST OF AN INCH OR LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 From the AFD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BLENDED GFS QPF /MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM/ WITH HPC VALUES WHICH BROUGHT TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE INTERIOR...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HIGHER TOTALS. CLOSER TO THE COAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX PROMPTED A FORECAST OF AN INCH OR LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM says much of CT struggles to even see 1" tonight...maybe 2" near the CT/MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Appears 12z NAM limits CT to a few flurries, an inch or so if it's snow across most of Mass with maybe 2 or 3 in GC. 29.9/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z NAM sort of gives RI and CT the middle finger on this run...somehow manages to run 90% of the precip right around the two states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Phil...any wx thoughts? Couple inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Still 2-4" here unless we get the inverted trough over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Sam any changes?? Still 3-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like another NAM failure... Time to toss that model away for the winter NAM is busting badly on ongoing mod-heavy precip. over the western FL Panhandle, SE AL, GA, and coastal SC. That's the precip. that the NAM shows coming very close to LI but staying offshore. Compare the current radar over those areas to the NAM 3 hour precip forecast valid 15z. The GFS has been handling things much better but still underestimating the precip. over FL/AL/GA/SC. Hard to tell, but the WV loop certainly indicates the baroclinic leaf that's igniting the precip. over FL/GA/AL is headed well NW of all guidance besides the RGEM. Nice 24 hour WV loop here: http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Phil...any wx thoughts? Couple inches? yeah that's my thinking...general C to 2 regionwide...spot 3s someplace in MA probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Sam any changes?? Still 3-6? Saying 3-5" western NH, down to 1-3" southeast. Looks like a general 2-4" deal for interior MA, into N CT, with upwards of 5" in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 yeah that's my thinking...general C to 2 regionwide...spot 3s someplace in MA probably. Maybe ride the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like another NAM failure... Time to toss that model away for the winter The nam is useless...ride the ruc and rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Pete if you couldn't see I was screwing around last night then maybe I need to use more emoticons. I know you guys are tired from sculpting your snow but I really thought it was pretty obvious. Then again nobody noticed the three day thaw over a good portion of sne which continues today so who knows? I use a push mower and then a lawn service in season fwiw. I'd rather be with the kids at the beach than mowing. TVM LOL. It's all good. ISm taking a break sitting on the tailgate looking at snow and ice frosted trees, wondering where this thaw has been? Ski to live,live to ski! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 LOL. It's all good. ISm taking a break sitting on the tailgate looking at snow and ice frosted trees, wondering where this thaw has been? Ski to live,live to ski! I was supposed to be out by kev yesterday and Saturday...inlaws and day skiing in Vermont but Thursday am we pulled the plug based on the weather being potentially snowy/tough travel. Doh! Friends went to cannon and had a blast. This weekend we are going somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Maybe ride the RGEM? New one gives you very little too. Minimum precip on the bw graphics for the two periods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Maybe ride the RGEM? well...not sure that brings anything great...the trend has been kinda meh with that model in the last 36 hours or so. i haven't seen today's 12z yet (maybe it comes back to some of the older solutions) but here's the 12z, 18z, 00z and 06z since yesterday - not exactly the direction we want to see this go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 well...not sure that brings anything great...the trend has been kinda meh with that model in the last 36 hours or so. i haven't seen today's 12z yet (maybe it comes back to some of the older solutions) but here's the 12z, 18z, 00z and 06z since yesterday - not exactly the direction we want to see this go: It cut back in CT and RI this run. Leaves the 5mm line in SE MA but that's about it. Everywhere else in SNE is .5 mm for the two periods/under 5mm. Unless there's some 12 hour magic in terms of how it displays on the B&W it's less wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The 0Z RGEM is much closer to reality on the precip. over GA/AL than the 6z. 0z: 6z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS has a little bit of a qpf void over ern mass...sort of in between the moisture offshore, and the mid level frontogenesis stuff in NY state and GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS looks like a C to 2" kind of deal. maybe a bit more in a couple of isolated spots. it's a bit skimpy with the QPF for a good chunk of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS has a little bit of a qpf void over ern mass...sort of in between the moisture offshore, and the mid level frontogenesis stuff in NY state and GC. Ironically thought it's much closer with some impressive vvs this run. Going to be a tight call/nowcast. I'd think we see the same pattern, ride the RUC later on today. It's early and it's outside the RUC range but through 18 it's further NW, more consolidated and brings the good stuff up over SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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