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Looking beyond Feb 5-6th event


Baroclinic Zone

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I complimented you earlier how much I like your negativity.

Oh, I know.....we're cool......this is just the way I post and it's never personal.

I go overboard, but for the most part it's realism.....I just said that I expect a big comeback in March.....not that negative, but when the pattern blows, I'm gonna state as such....and right now, it blows.

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It's a little early to claim we had the final drive of winter. Again, I understand you guys are frustrated..Lord knows I would be too, but it's a little too early to claim winter is over..especially when climo loves this time of year for you guys. Could it be..sure, but imo I think frustrations are getting the better of some, and it's coming out in the posts. Scott is a good dude, and I appreciate his analysis, but to claim imby syndrome when 95% of the population is having a good winter is hypocritical.

FWIW I lived on the south shore for years, so I know what it's like to be frustrated at times.

I know, but comparing annual snowfall for the South Coast versus the much snowier ocean enhanced farther north South Shore is like spending the night with Kim Kardashian and waking up next to Rosie O'Donnell.

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I know, but comparing annual snowfall for the South Coast versus the much snowier ocean enhanced farther north South Shore is like spending the night with Kim Kardashian and waking up next to Rosie O'Donnell.

LOL, well true..but I've seen my share of disappointments when areas 40 miles away are getting smoked while I have sh*t. 2003 was just that until Feb came along.

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LOL, well true..but I've seen my share of disappointments when areas 40 miles away are getting smoked while I have sh*t. 2003 was just that until Feb came along.

January 2003. You probably had all rain during an event that occurred on a Friday night. The night of the College Football National Championship game. I drove to Worcester and the snow was so heavy just south of Worcester on 146 I could barely see anything and I remember when I hit Sutton snow was turning to heavy sleet.

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January 2003. You probably had all rain during an event that occurred on a Friday night. The night of the College Football National Championship game. I drove to Worcester and the snow was so heavy just south of Worcester on 146 I could barely see anything and I remember when I hit Sutton snow was turning to heavy sleet.

Everything was mostly liquid, including the 12/25 and 12/26 storm in 2002. February and into early March made an epic comeback.

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Everything was mostly liquid, including the 12/25 and 12/26 storm in 2002. February and into early March made an epic comeback.

The March 6, 2003 event was pretty good for the south shore. There was CSI banding in that not horribly dissimilar to 2/7/03 a month earlier...just a bit less prolific.

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The March 6, 2003 event was pretty good for the south shore. There was CSI banding in that not horribly dissimilar to 2/7/03 a month earlier...just a bit less prolific.

Yeah that had some thundersnow too...although I didn't hear it. The 2/7/03 storm was one of my favorites. Still some of the best snowgrowth I've ever seen.

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Yeah that had some thundersnow too...although I didn't hear it. The 2/7/03 storm was one of my favorites. Still some of the best snowgrowth I've ever seen.

The March storm was a fun one...a few hours of S+ with some lightning....but it was extremely fluffy and within two days it was all gone....The February 2003 storm was an epic..positive bust. I forget who was forecasting 1-3 for Boston..whether it was BOX or Pete Bouchard who had just replaced Todd Gross during the morning shift...but I believe Logan had 16 inches.

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The March 6, 2003 event was pretty good for the south shore. There was CSI banding in that not horribly dissimilar to 2/7/03 a month earlier...just a bit less prolific.

Do you remember March 20, 2002? I know that was an awful winter and you may have been at college but we had a pretty cool wet snowstorm..I believe that was the last day of winter or first day of spring. It certainly foreshadowed what was to come in 2002-2003. :snowman:

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Do you remember March 20, 2002? I know that was an awful winter and you may have been at college but we had a pretty cool wet snowstorm..I believe that was the last day of winter or first day of spring. It certainly foreshadowed what was to come in 2002-2003. :snowman:

Yes I was home on spring break for that one. We had 7.0" of wet snow. Nice event in an otherwise horrible season.

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The March storm was a fun one...a few hours of S+ with some lightning....but it was extremely fluffy and within two days it was all gone....The February 2003 storm was an epic..positive bust. I forget who was forecasting 1-3 for Boston..whether it was BOX or Pete Bouchard who had just replaced Todd Gross during the morning shift...but I believe Logan had 16 inches.

Gross was actually bullish I think for that event, IIRC the NGM was one of the more snowier models in that storm. BOS has a bout a foot, but just to the south had 15-17" of pure fluff and little wind. Busts like that will become more difficult to happen as models get better.

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This is why I'd much rather have a good December/January and mediocre February as seems to be the pattern this year; that's the time when the snowpack remains fresh and you can enjoy it. It really starts to get ugly in late February/March; I remember a snowstorm around March 20th, perhaps in 2004...there was like 7" of wet snow overnight, and it was almost all gone by the evening. You could barely tell it had snowed.

Id rather have a great Dec, a cold and mediocre Jan then turn it on for Feb, a mediocre Feb can feel like spring is coming too soon.

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Euro has this area of pretty intense snow from the inv trough in NY State...it shifts it east over most of New England but its not as intense. Probably still a couple inches though for at least the interior. Its a strange looking event.

Does it get down here with meaningful QPF?

You know, 400' elevation might be enough to overcome the BL warmth. laugh.gif

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Everything was mostly liquid, including the 12/25 and 12/26 storm in 2002. February and into early March made an epic comeback.

2002-03 was up there with 1995-96 around here because we had snow from November through April both winters. I actually liked April 2003 almost as much as PD2.

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Its light and measurable but not sure if its meaningful...maybe a bit over a tenth of qpf.

What do temps look like? Are 850s OK?

I'm surprised the Thursday event is disappearing; the shortwave looks extremely healthy as it hits the West Coast, and the GFS looks ready to phase in a piece of the polar vortex. Doesn't this look like a strange progression at 500mb?

0z GFS at 36:

Looks as if the PV is ready to open up and phase into the southern stream, giving a chance for a big storm. But then, here's 54:

Where did the PV lobe go? Also, doesn't the energy look very healthy in the southern stream? Shouldn't that amplify instead of being broken apart as the GFS does? Do you guys think the big storm idea still has some merits?

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Down time for weenies. Unless my Thurs or Friday storm actually hits, we're done for 10 days I'd say. Good time to catch up on sleep and work on keeping families from kicking you out from single minded weenieism.

Agree... much needed (though certainly not wanted) break.

Good for work.

Good for rest.

Good to ensure that girlfriend / wife won't break up... though hr 216 GFS says we'll be following models on Valentine's day lol

Who am I kidding... I could have taken a MECS/HECS a week at least through March.

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What do temps look like? Are 850s OK?

I'm surprised the Thursday event is disappearing; the shortwave looks extremely healthy as it hits the West Coast, and the GFS looks ready to phase in a piece of the polar vortex. Doesn't this look like a strange progression at 500mb?

0z GFS at 36:

Looks as if the PV is ready to open up and phase into the southern stream, giving a chance for a big storm. But then, here's 54:

Where did the PV lobe go? Also, doesn't the energy look very healthy in the southern stream? Shouldn't that amplify instead of being broken apart as the GFS does? Do you guys think the big storm idea still has some merits?

There's still a long shot for that...but the PV is too far east by the time the s/w in the southwest comes out. Hopefully something happens like the Euro except more amplified with the 2nd s/w afterward...but as Scott said, that is also a long shot...but who knows with the model chaos we've seen.

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What do temps look like? Are 850s OK?

I'm surprised the Thursday event is disappearing; the shortwave looks extremely healthy as it hits the West Coast, and the GFS looks ready to phase in a piece of the polar vortex. Doesn't this look like a strange progression at 500mb?

Where did the PV lobe go? Also, doesn't the energy look very healthy in the southern stream? Shouldn't that amplify instead of being broken apart as the GFS does? Do you guys think the big storm idea still has some merits?

Isnt this what happens when energy moves into a confluent flow?

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