Looking beyond Feb 5-6th event

[nzucker]

Biblical storm Tippy societal impact storm on the GFS, monster mash, would bury 3/4 and call for boats the ther. Massive coastal floodinand bitter tru arctic winds. Nice structure wow

GFS says, "What thaw?"

Massive snowstorm next Thursday/Friday followed by record-breaking arctic outbreak, 1-2 days of normal temperatures before another snow event and an arctic high comes down. Wow.

[Chrisrotary12]

Looking ahead to Thursday. It is too perfect too far away.....Will probably end up 500 miles west of us while we put suntan lotion on.

[ski MRG]

From the ALY AFD. Snowy times ahead here in the High Terrain.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN ACTIVE IN THE NORTHEAST SINCE CHRISTMAS

AND THERE IS NO RELENT IN SIGHT WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH

OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48. WE FOLLOWED HPC/S

LEAD IN THE EXTENDED...AND ARE WATCHING TWO MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND A POTENTIALLY LARGER COASTAL SYSTEM

TOWARDS THURSDAY.

SUNDAY...ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA

IN THE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND

THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT STRONG

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS ACTUALLY

QUASI-ZONAL IN ITS WAKE. H850 TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE -5C TO -10C

ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE

HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE H500 FLOW WILL BE W/SW ALONG THE EAST

COAST INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING A BRIEF WARM UP WITH TEMPS

NEAR NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE

LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/MIDWEST WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE

DAY. TEMPS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN INITIAL RA/SN MIX IN THE MID

HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS A

CHANCE SOME THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS

EQUATORWARD TO THE COAST FOR SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY.

ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/HPC THIS OCCURS TOO FAR SOUTHEAST TO

IMPACT THE REGION. RIGHT NOW...AT LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF

SNOW LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH PERHAPS A LOW CHC OF A MODERATE

ACCUMULATION OVER THE NRN TIER...SUCH AS THE SRN DACKS...AND THE

LAKE GEORGE REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SLAMS THROUGH THE

REGION WITH A BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS. TIMING IS

VARIABLE IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS

PLUMMET INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ACCORDING

TO THE LATEST GFS LATE IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A BROAD DOME OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE

BUILDS IN EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR THE TEENS IN THE VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM CRANKS UP

TAPPING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ERN PACIFIC FOR LOW

PRESSURE TO ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS CYCLONE

RACES E/NE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE TRACK IS VARIABLE

ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES/ECMWF/GFS/HPC...BUT WE COULD

EXPERIENCE ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE COASTAL WINTER STORM. IT IS A BIT

WORRISOME THAT THE 12Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW FROM 1003 HPA AT 00Z/THU

OVER ALABAMA TO 956 HPA OVER SRN NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z/FRI. A BIT MIND

BOGGLING...STAY TUNED !!!

BOTTOM LINE...TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL

[jconsor]

There are some exceptions to the idea that every seriously snowy winter has a torch or thaw, mainly back during the period of low solar activity in the late 19th Century and early 20th Century.

I looked at NYC data since they have easily accessible daily temp data going back into the late 1800s. My criteria was winters with at least 45" snowfall and a no more than 1 period of consecutive days with a 45+ high temp. (lasting no more than 2 days) for a period of at least 60 days somewhere between Dec and Mar.

These winters met the criteria:

1892-93

1904-05

1919-20

I think the torch is invevitable. Every seriously snowy winter has one. 1995-96 had 2 major long torches, one in Jan, one in Feb. 1993-94 had a small 3 day torch but temps were spectacularly high. Both of those years all the naysayers said pattern over. You know what happened. I was on Rochester, NY during the 1993-94 torch....60F with lakes for streets while feet of snow lie in the fields and even more feet in snowbanks. A day after I returned home, the cold/snow came back. Keep hope alive.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's ok to post thoughts about the downsides to the possible pattern breakdown. Not everything has to be filled with snow bomb fantasies. Sometimes it gets a little overboard in here with everyone posting about epic snows till may and what not. When people post anything that is anti-snow, an uproar happens. I love snow as much as any of you, but at the same time..I post thoughts I have as well. Sometimes they won't be filled with thoughts of epic blizzards..lol. FWIW I'm not saying winter is over by any means. I have my fingers crosses the warmth is forced south.

Sounds like you've been exchanging PM's with someone

[jconsor]

ECMWF bias of keeping shortwaves in the SW US for too long has to be considered. The UKMET, GGEM, GFS, GFS ensemble are all substantially faster than the ECMWF while this system is in the SW US and southern Plains, which leads to later phasing.

[Ginx snewx]

Sounds like you've been exchanging PM's with someone

Dude check out the intensity of the Euro bomb on Thursday, 850 winds 132MPH just offshore.

Warministas will be making their annual reappearance next week after the superstorm, will not see their shadow head back to their caves until April, tell Gibbs hey and ask him if he figured out his IPAD, no posts from energy mets anymore?

[MaineJayhawk]

Hubba Hubba Dave's DGEX fetish serves him well for the late week event.

[jconsor]

That's 132 kt, not MPH. Hurricane-force sustained winds over the Gulf Stream FTW?

GFS has some 100+ kt winds in the same area - hard to see exactly how high they are, because it's off the scale LOL

http://wxweb.meteost...S_850_HGT_WINDS

Dude check out the intensity of the Euro bomb on Thursday, 850 winds 132MPH just offshore.

Warministas will be making their annual reappearance next week after the superstorm, will not see their shadow head back to their caves until April, tell Gibbs hey and ask him if he figured out his IPAD, no posts from energy mets anymore?

[CoastalWx]

Sounds like you've been exchanging PM's with someone

Huh??

[CoastalWx]

Pretty nice -NAO and -EPO ridge at the end of the euro ensembles.

[jconsor]

But it's a west-based -EPO (i.e. main pos. anomaly near the Aleutians instead of over AK) and an east and north-based -NAO (main pos. anomaly from just NW of Scandinavia to the Arctic Circle) so the SE US ridge is still able to build strongly.

Pretty nice -NAO and -EPO ridge at the end of the euro ensembles.

[CoastalWx]

But it's a west-based -EPO (i.e. main pos. anomaly near the Aleutians instead of over AK) and an east and north-based -NAO (main pos. anomaly from just NW of Scandinavia to the Arctic Circle) so the SE US ridge is still able to build strongly.

Yeah neither are classic, but both can act to create a gradient pattern and keep this area just cold enough. It sort of squeezes the PV into Hudson Bay by pinching it near the North Pole. That would hopefully bring colder air after d15. I already see signs of it, but we are talking two weeks out here.

[ORH_wxman]

Potential for milder weather still showing up on EC ensembles...actually showing up better now...int he Feb 15-17 time frame. Doesn't mean we're going to torch, but its something people should keep an eye out for and not be shocked if some time next week we start seeing some milder OP runs for that time frame. It does look like we'd go back into a colder regime after that as Scott said with a developing -NAO and -EPO which would act to keep the PV somewhat further S.

[mahk_webstah]

But it's a west-based -EPO (i.e. main pos. anomaly near the Aleutians instead of over AK) and an east and north-based -NAO (main pos. anomaly from just NW of Scandinavia to the Arctic Circle) so the SE US ridge is still able to build strongly.

I like some southeast ridging for my area, as long as there is a decent cold air source. SWFE heaven.

How's the winter in Jerusalem? I know Tel Aviv has gotten some rain...have you? Any snow?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Potential for milder weather still showing up on EC ensembles...actually showing up better now...int he Feb 15-17 time frame. Doesn't mean we're going to torch, but its something people should keep an eye out for and not be shocked if some time next week we start seeing some milder OP runs for that time frame. It does look like we'd go back into a colder regime after that as Scott said with a developing -NAO and -EPO which would act to keep the PV somewhat further S.

yeah it's going to be tough to fight back a strongly -PNA and rising AO/NAO for a while. mid-month could be our first real "thaw" of the winter.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's ok to post thoughts about the downsides to the possible pattern breakdown. Not everything has to be filled with snow bomb fantasies. Sometimes it gets a little overboard in here with everyone posting about epic snows till may and what not. When people post anything that is anti-snow, an uproar happens. I love snow as much as any of you, but at the same time..I post thoughts I have as well. Sometimes they won't be filled with thoughts of epic blizzards..lol. FWIW I'm not saying winter is over by any means. I have my fingers crosses the warmth is forced south.

lol...well said. i'm beginning to feel like anytime i mention warmth or rain or whatever...i have to either run and hide from the firing squad or just not post.

[jconsor]

GFS ensembles starting to trend toward a more significant event for eastern New England late Mon night and Tue, with more digging in the TN Valley helping out. Only 2 0z ensemble members had significant QPF in SE New England, and now 5 do.

The Mon night-Tue system needs to be watched very carefully, with several ensemble members showing the system deepening more than 20 mb in 12 hours!

[mattb65]

The main board synoptic discussion by ampsu and baroclinic instability seems to lean towards a cutter that crushes OH and the midwest, seems pretty plausible to me even though the gfs keeps printing out model porn. Then again if the Euro is holding back the S/W too much, an event closer to the gfs would seem to be more likely. Wanted to hear our local met's thoughts on which way they'd lean given what the models are showing now.

With high pressure off the East Coast next Wednesday, I'd expect solutions in the western half of the envelope will be more likely to verify. The pattern looks to me like a Lakes or OH Valley cutter that are typical in La Nina patterns with a SE ridge (though in this case in looks more like a Bermuda high).

If that's the case, areas in OK/AR/MO/IL that just got pounded from the Groundhog's Day storm will have to watch out again as deformation banding will be strong on the backside of the low. Temperature gradients will be tight due to the Arctic high dropping down, leading to strong frontogenetic signals. Snow would then spread northeastward into the Midwest, again with many of the same areas in IN/OH/MI/N PA/NY/NNE seeing heavy snows.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hubba Hubba Dave's DGEX fetish serves him well for the late week event.

Scweeeeeet!

[mattb65]

Scweeeeeet!

Lock this please!!!

Sorry to go OT but...

Anything remotely close to this would really be a disaster for SNE, I was reading in the globe that the code for roofs built after 1978 is 31.5 lb/sq ft. which is about 5 feet of snow. I'd say there're many areas that currently have 3-4 inches of liquid equivalent on roofs.

Source on the roof weight info.

[mahk_webstah]

Took a good walk this morning surveying the scene. 30 inches on the level, huge piles, and even out here some potential serious challenges down the road. If I was an emergency planner or in the DOT or something in CNE I would be very concerned. While this is unlikely to verify, the possibilities include:

- a light to moderate snowstorm on Saturday

- a moderate or possibly heavy storm on Tuesday and a big storm Friday that could either 1) lay down a heavy snow as a coastal hugger to BM track or 2) come into the Ohio Valley, giving a front end dump and then either more snow with redevelopment, or a change to rain which adds water to a thick snowpack. Then, some arctic air to freeze it all up. Then I'm looking at the prospect of a thaw (which would help) or a gradient pattern and -NAO that takes to me into early March.

It is within the realm of reasonable possibility that CNE has a widespread snowpack of 50 inches by next weekend. Might not happen, but pretty incredible to think about. In the 142 inch winter of 07-08 up here, the deepest snow depth recorded by Brian was 43 inches.

On another note, my golden who will be 14 in May, continues to amaze me with her zest for life, eating of snow, rolling in snow and ability to have a nice long walk on a 5 degree morning.

[radarman]

I haven't seen the euro weeklies, but when I look at some of the warm solutions on the long range models lately, what I'm not seeing is pacific air blasting across Canada. As long as the anomalies up there are average or below, zonal flow across the US probably won't result in a massive torch in New England, maybe a mini-torch, especially on the CP if we see some more pronounced SE ridging. A couple warm days and maybe a rain event could be in the cards, but on the whole I'm not seeing signs that there's any real sustained break from winter, even as the PNA drops. Also, a dropping AO argues for suppression of cold air and probably a big latitudinal temp gradient, which may well lead to continued storminess even if the waves are less amplified.

[Typhoon Tip]

Re Saturday event…

The 12z NAM arrived a bit more robust as expected; not quite to the panache of that 18z run of 1.1” of liq equiv, but nearly .8” for BOS this run… Looking at the synoptics, .5-.8 looks like a good regional interpretation of this particular cycle. This has been a recurring theme this season with the NAM – it sees an event, an important event, over 48 hours away, and hits it hard, then, it seems to lose it for 2 or even 3 cycles, only to bring it back 24 hours out or less. I would be willing to bet that the 18z today gets half way again between this run’s .8 and yesterday’s 18z 1.1” – we’ll see, but .9 and change wouldn’t shock me on the 18z run. That said, thermo-fields: Strict FRH grid data interpretation is a half that falls as snow at BOS, and then flips to ZR, but that is probably not at Logan of course… but in the near western suburbs out to Arlington Heights and Waltham areas… West of there would be a snow thump with some IP mixed in.

The other 00z runs were warmer though. ECM, and GGEM were both drilling the 850mb 0c isotherm to the Mass borders with VT/NH. That would imply perhaps 2 inches of snow then a flip to rain/ZR for even the interior. That said, even if that warm 850 layer took place as in these runs, with the low tracking SE of the area and this mammoth glacier of a snow pack in place, one would have to guess that a llv ageostrophic feed of freezing air, and thus freezing rain, would abound in the interior. Having said all this, I think it is also possible that dynamics could overwhelm, even in the higher res ECM – particularly if the more intense version of yesterday’s NAM runs return to the table.

Re the Tuesday event…

I don’t perceive that system as a bigger player in SNE …for the time being. I reserve the right to augment that outlook should 48 hour now-cast present more digging. For now, the flow is too fast and too progressive, and Saturday’s system will probably also “rob” a lot of thermodynamic support. That is why we see a very broad center with limited QPF event seaward where it bombs later Tuesday. This is text book why it is very difficult to get 2 storms of significance within a shorter duration of time – not to mention 3 of them. I suspect this system can throw down 1-3” of snow and then explodes up in the outer Maritimes. The later behavior of this system and how it integrates with the surrounding synoptic medium beyond is going to be critical for the system nearing Thursday.

Re the Thursday+ event…

This system has the potential to be the biggest, severest system of the entire season, but things have to come together rather ideally given the current synoptic regime. As mentioned above, Tuesday’s system plays a role. How? If moves up into a region where there is an emerging –NAO. It could stall up there, and then positively feed-back a height insert into the –NAO ridge, which is actually quite plausible when one considers the back-drilling retrograde characteristic consistent with the –NAO’s exertion on the field. That sets the stage for the next system, Thursday, because the teleconnection is lowering heights through the OV-MA-NE. Seeing a low translating there is acceptable. Moreover, if the GFS is right in general over the blend of the last several cycles – which again fits the teleconnector mode/modalities of the week – then enters the possibility that the model's native progressivity bias should be conserved. That is a bit troublesome, because a few of these runs have been drilling this low to obscenely deep anomalies, and given to the already emerging social impact of recent winter weather, that could put the area in a precarious sort of jeopardy – but I’ll stop shy of even guessing what that would mean. Bottom line, as much as the storm zealot would want to experience that, at some point “saneness” should require consternation.

[mahk_webstah]

I'm confused about the NAO. I'm hearing it is rising and that will help with a thaw around mid month. I'm also hearing it is dropping and that is helping with next week's storm. Is there consensus on the NAO for the next one to two weeks?

[Ginx snewx]

lol...well said. i'm beginning to feel like anytime i mention warmth or rain or whatever...i have to either run and hide from the firing squad or just not post.

LOL you guys sometimes take this stuff way way too personal, run and hide? Thaw is coming I thawt I thaw a thaw. Prepare for the rebound.

[CoastalWx]

I'm confused about the NAO. I'm hearing it is rising and that will help with a thaw around mid month. I'm also hearing it is dropping and that is helping with next week's storm. Is there consensus on the NAO for the next one to two weeks?

The NAO is temporarily falling next week, however it appears it might be more of an east based -nao with ridging into eastern Greenland. After, it turns positive as the ridge moves east of Greenland. The positive nao in turn with a -pna will promote more ridging over the se and zonal flow over the conus. This is when we will see our break.

[tamarack]

Lock this please!!!

Sorry to go OT but...

Anything remotely close to this would really be a disaster for SNE, I was reading in the globe that the code for roofs built after 1978 is 31.5 lb/sq ft. which is about 5 feet of snow. I'd say there're many areas that currently have 3-4 feet of liquid equivalent on roofs.

Source on the roof weight info.

Surely you intended "inches" (I hope) and I'd think some had significantly more than 3-4" LE. I'm a bit surprised at the relatively low standard, which is about 6" LE. When I was helping to build houses in NNJ (late 60s-early 60s), we were using 40 lb/sq.ft. I've heard 80 lb referenced in Maine.

[mahk_webstah]

The NAO is temporarily falling next week, however it appears it might be more of an east based -nao with ridging into eastern Greenland. After, it turns positive as the ridge moves east of Greenland. The positive nao in turn with a -pna will promote more ridging over the se and zonal flow over the conus. This is when we will see our break.

Thank you Scott!

[CoastalWx]

When some of us mentioned how we could have "high" heights with the cold oozing down, check out the GFS at around hr 348 and 360. The flow prior to that has been a mild zonal flow, but the coldfront moves south and stalls south of NYC giving us an overrunning pattern.

Yes I know it's the 348hr op, but it proves this example.