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Looking beyond Feb 5-6th event


Baroclinic Zone

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Ever since Wednesday, everything has found a way to go wrong.....abrupt change.

Your negativity has proven to be presicent the past week. I find your negativity to be refreshing and you shouldn't apologize for it. Some of the posters in this thread see a silver lining in every cloud and this is not always the case. We all love extreme weather, but many weather events fail to live up to the hype.... About 65% of what was only a 5-6 inch snowpack down here is gone and our prospects for the near-term don't look all that great. I know I'm not represenative of the area but thus far..for me this winter can't hold a candle to 93-94...95-96...02-03...04-05...because I haven't had a storm dump more than 7 inches. Even 1998-1999 gave me two double digit events.

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Down time for weenies. Unless my Thurs or Friday storm actually hits, we're done for 10 days I'd say. Good time to catch up on sleep and work on keeping families from kicking you out from single minded weenieism.

When you consider we have been done for 4-5 days already depending on the area the 10 day break upcoming is ugly.

I'm not convinced we see a snowy reset like everyone else. Every year we think that's coming in the ninas and it never does. She's an icy b**ch that thaws later.

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It can't snow forever folks. For those whose joy is guided by the 'whether it snows or not', you've had a good run. Could it have been better? Sure - we underperformed on at least 3 of these events over the past month to 45 days. All told, how often do you get a snow removal, 30" pack issues any given winter season?

Answer? You got nothing to complain about. Nothing. Deal with this while the models correct toward more, or not.

Eventually, summer will be here.

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Your negativity has proven to be presicent the past week. I find your negativity to be refreshing and you shouldn't apologize for it. Some of the posters in this thread see a silver lining in every cloud and this is not always the case. We all love extreme weather, but many weather events fail to live up to the hype.... About 65% of what was only a 5-6 inch snowpack down here is gone and our prospects for the near-term don't look all that great. I know I'm not represenative of the area but thus far..for me this winter can't hold a candle to 93-94...95-96...02-03...04-05...because I haven't had a storm dump more than 7 inches. Even 1998-1999 gave me two double digit events.

Shush all the people live in the shires' or cities. That's one of the deals this year...and on this board. So it snows in the hills big deal, the great winters snowed on the coast too.

Ray has been realistic all year. Up until the last ten days you could take the snowiest model multiply by 1.5 and get it right. It's all changed now.

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When you consider we have been done for 4-5 days already depending on the area the 10 day break upcoming is ugly.

I'm not convinced we see a snowy reset like everyone else. Every year we think that's coming in the ninas and it never does. She's an icy b**ch that thaws later.

It likely won't be an epic cold and snowy pattern, but I think we break the 40F days with a little more snow and colder after next week, and into March. I think that is reasonable the way things look, and I'm not offering a silver lining approach...just how I think things may happen.

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When you consider we have been done for 4-5 days already depending on the area the 10 day break upcoming is ugly.

I'm not convinced we see a snowy reset like everyone else. Every year we think that's coming in the ninas and it never does. She's an icy b**ch that thaws later.

This March will deliver....it's just that in the mean time, I get to see a 28" snowpack erode.

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When you consider we have been done for 4-5 days already depending on the area the 10 day break upcoming is ugly.

I'm not convinced we see a snowy reset like everyone else. Every year we think that's coming in the ninas and it never does. She's an icy b**ch that thaws later.

70 inches in 5 weeks is nothing to sneeze at. If we get another 10 over the next 2 months you will have to agree that this winter was simply epic.

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It can't snow forever folks. For those whose joy is guided by the 'whether it snows or not', you've had a good run. Could it have been better? Sure - we underperformed on at least 3 of these events over the past month to 45 days. All told, how often do you get a snow removal, 30" pack issues any given winter season?

Answer? You got nothing to complain about. Nothing. Deal with this while the models correct toward more, or not.

Eventually, summer will be here.

It's a wx forum...when the wx blows, I'll complain......shove that in your noose and hang it.

Boring 10 days blow.

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Your negativity has proven to be presicent the past week. I find your negativity to be refreshing and you shouldn't apologize for it. Some of the posters in this thread see a silver lining in every cloud and this is not always the case. We all love extreme weather, but many weather events fail to live up to the hype.... About 65% of what was only a 5-6 inch snowpack down here is gone and our prospects for the near-term don't look all that great. I know I'm not represenative of the area but thus far..for me this winter can't hold a candle to 93-94...95-96...02-03...04-05...because I haven't had a storm dump more than 7 inches. Even 1998-1999 gave me two double digit events.

You are more like NYC southward in climo vs SNE. However NYC has done well. I'm sure you've been up to Boston and note the very deep snow...would take an awful lot to kill it. Nonetheless, If I were in your shoes I'd feel the same way. For me, this one so far is every bit as good as the 4 you've mentioned. But the behavior over the next months might tamp me down but not a lot. As I mentioned, 6 feet of snow in 5 weeks is epic for a major US metro area.

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70 inches in 5 weeks is nothing to sneeze at. If we get another 10 over the next 2 months you will have to agree that this winter was simply epic.

I can't reply to all in one post on the phone so:

Scott yeah I think we are just going to see 'normal' from here on out. Some cold some warm some storms etc...hopefully we get a big one. But the pattern has broken dt is right the parade of blizzards is done for good IMO.

Ray maybe but from a climo standpoint the odds go way down for me here and everyone south of us. The best month for snow here is going down in a torch flame.

Weathafella epic in terms of snowpack here but it's been a candle to what you have. I can't say it's 95-96 even where I grew up though as the clippers didn't bust that year like they did this January. We had two kev locks bust and everything has gone warm. We will see but if this was 95-96 tue and thur would pan out to some degree.

The pattern change already happened, now we can hope things go back

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I want to get 100''/break the record here so badly...there is still a chance for both but with these two systems looking to not be much the chances of that happening would vastly diminish.

Perhaps after this week and the mini warmup the pattern can return to something more favorable.

I wanted desperately to break Dobbs Ferry's record of 90" in 60-61...it was looking probable as I approached 60" in late January with more threats on the table, but now the record is probably safe for another year. Unless we see a monster late February/March, it'll be hard to get 30"+ to take a shot at 60-61, although it's not impossible if the -NAO comes roaring back as Don Sutherland has predicted. I'm thinking that last year's 68" and the 70" total from 66-67 will probably be passed here, quite easily.

70 inches in 5 weeks is nothing to sneeze at. If we get another 10 over the next 2 months you will have to agree that this winter was simply epic.

We've had an amazing stretch; I haven't stopped tracking since Christmas time when we were working on the Boxing Day Nor'easter. We shouldn't be upset by the breakdown in the snowy pattern, but there's always something in you that hopes your epic stretch can last until spring. We truly had a chance at a wire-to-wire winter until this week turned into a disaster and the SE ridge decided to take revenge on our snowpack. Now we face the reality that time may be running out for all the records to be smashed.

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I can't reply to all in one post on the phone so:

Scott yeah I think we are just going to see 'normal' from here on out. Some cold some warm some storms etc...hopefully we get a big one. But the pattern has broken dt is right the parade of blizzards is done for good IMO.

Ray maybe but from a climo standpoint the odds go way down for me here and everyone south of us. The best month for snow here is going down in a torch flame.

Weathafella epic in terms of snowpack here but it's been a candle to what you have. I can't say it's 95-96 even where I grew up though as the clippers didn't bust that year like they did this January. We had two kev locks bust and everything has gone warm. We will see but if this was 95-96 tue and thur would pan out to some degree.

The pattern change already happened, now we can hope things go back

Your odds of a big snow event are higher throughout the first two weeks of March, then they are throughout most of Decemeber, from a climo standpoint.

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I can't reply to all in one post on the phone so:

Scott yeah I think we are just going to see 'normal' from here on out. Some cold some warm some storms etc...hopefully we get a big one. But the pattern has broken dt is right the parade of blizzards is done for good IMO.

Ray maybe but from a climo standpoint the odds go way down for me here and everyone south of us. The best month for snow here is going down in a torch flame.

Weathafella epic in terms of snowpack here but it's been a candle to what you have. I can't say it's 95-96 even where I grew up though as the clippers didn't bust that year like they did this January. We had two kev locks bust and everything has gone warm. We will see but if this was 95-96 tue and thur would pan out to some degree.

The pattern change already happened, now we can hope things go back

No one is arguing that we will see another 70" in 5 weeks. I even said I agree with some of DT's points. However it's possible the area performs well later in February and March. It could be our latitude that saves us, while the MA warms, potentially.

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No one is arguing that we will see another 70" in 5 weeks. I even said I agree with some of DT's points. However it's possible the area performs well later in February and March. It's could be our latitude that saves us, while the MA warms, potentially.

I think March rocks, but it just sucks that our snowpack will be fossilized by the time we get there.....we had a shot to continue on, but it evaporated.

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