ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The GFS has very deep moisture on the soundings....if that type of solution verifies, then someone will probably crack 4" in one of the favored spots in Hills/Mts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 GFS manages to keep SNE on North cold for the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Add a NW wind gusting to 35 knots and that will feel awful I wonder if the strength of the wind post fropa Tuesday saves us from a flash freeze with more evaporation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The GFS has very deep moisture on the soundings....if that type of solution verifies, then someone will probably crack 4" in one of the favored spots in Hills/Mts. Yeah even TTs near 50. Pretty good snow sounding for you. It may be questionable in the lower levels for me, but it might be one of those light wind, 32-33F paste jobs for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 upton going bullish already.. they lost a lot of credibility with marginal temp events ( from me at least) after the last two storms.. they forecasted 11" and 4" for the storms last week IMBY and we recieved 3" of sleet total.. still can't get over that new guy on channel 8.. he forecasted 3-6" for CT for saturdays storm on friday night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOL, what a weenie 18z run. It manages to turn every little low into a miller b for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah even TTs near 50. Pretty good snow sounding for you. It may be questionable in the lower levels for me, but it might be one of those light wind, 32-33F paste jobs for me. Any lift at all and I'll do fine....7\10 times I find a way to do all right in elevation events if the mid levels are ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I wonder if the strength of the wind post fropa Tuesday saves us from a flash freeze with more evaporation? yes definitely will make it not as bad, but still could be pretty bad if the cold gets in quick enough.. it can only evaporate so fast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Any lift at all and I'll do fine....7\10 times I find a way to do all right in elevation events if the mid levels are ok. BED and BOS soundings are almost identical. I think you'll be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah even TTs near 50. Pretty good snow sounding for you. It may be questionable in the lower levels for me, but it might be one of those light wind, 32-33F paste jobs for me. It def reminds me of one of those heavy wet snow burst soundings ala day after MLK day last winter. On a side note since this is still a "beyond Feb 5-6" thread...18z GFS gives a little Miller B nuke with us north of the boundary on Feb 14-15...just a bit different from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOL, what a weenie 18z run. It manages to turn every little low into a miller b for us. Valentine's day humor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 GFS BDL.. 7AM TUES 32*, 7PM 6* Wow. BDL-6F at 7pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yes definitely will make it not as bad, but still could be pretty bad if the cold gets in quick enough.. it can only evaporate so fast.. the worst two flash freezes i remember.... winter 2003-2004 snow squalls melted on contact then temps dropped cars couldn't get up any hills where i live with no snow on ground i l abandoned my 2WD truck bc i couldnt get up my hill.. then 2004-2005 winter like march we had rain and snow.. then it a flash freeze hit and we got heavy heavy snow over it took me 4 hours to get home from danbury.. that was the most intense snow i've ever driven in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Valentine's day humor... Vs the euro 60F temps..lol. Both are on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Sweet. 3-5 works just fine. That's what BOX has in the GC zones for Monday night--anything on Tuesday not included. 30.9/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 So the euro says 60F and the GFS gives us a miller B? Time to lock up the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The sun hurt a lot of exposed areas. Well it's all relative, but I def noticed a loss of 4" or so in the sun areas. This has the makings of a spring-time where snowpack is incredibly varied due to melt patterns (sun, elevations, prior p-type events, etc). Someone will report a still healthy 26" snowpack in late March (measured in the shade on a north facing lawn) while their neighbor who's property faces south has 6" left. I love when that happens as its so cool to see the different factors that go into snow preservation and snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I wonder if the strength of the wind post fropa Tuesday saves us from a flash freeze with more evaporation? Probably some...plus timing of precip ending isnt terrible. Big temp drop nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This has the makings of a spring-time where snowpack is incredibly varied due to melt patterns (sun, elevations, prior p-type events, etc). Someone will report a still healthy 26" snowpack in late March (measured in the shade on a north facing lawn) while their neighbor who's property faces south has 6" left. I love when that happens as its so cool to see the different factors that go into snow preservation and snow melt. On a normal year thats how it works for me. I always have a 12+ snowpack and the only time the other side of the street has a snow pack is the first few days after a storm if were not in a cold enough pattern. This year is not like that obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 That's what BOX has in the GC zones for Monday night--anything on Tuesday not included. 30.9/25 ALB has 2-7" in their AFD. lol Highlights their NE areas.I think we'll get a nice refreshing snowfall. Beautiful afternoon skiing with the family at the B'east. Just a great local gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I don't know how I'm gonna deal with a boring wx week this week at school after all we've had recently. It's gonna be uh...weird I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z GFS ensembles continue to be pretty impressive. They match the EC ensembles pretty good too. I think someone will pull a 4 spot out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I don't know how I'm gonna deal with a boring wx week this week at school after all we've had recently. It's gonna be uh...weird I guess. Study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z GFS ensembles continue to be pretty impressive. They match the EC ensembles pretty good too. I think someone will pull a 4 spot out of this. They have a little 6 hr max of just over 0.25" to your west. Seems reasonable to think somebody could pull 4 or 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 BDL is close all snow on GFS rain on NAM ding ding ding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The GFS has very deep moisture on the soundings....if that type of solution verifies, then someone will probably crack 4" in one of the favored spots in Hills/Mts. Yeah even TTs near 50. Pretty good snow sounding for you. It may be questionable in the lower levels for me, but it might be one of those light wind, 32-33F paste jobs for me. upton going bullish already.. they lost a lot of credibility with marginal temp events ( from me at least) after the last two storms.. they forecasted 11" and 4" for the storms last week IMBY and we recieved 3" of sleet total.. still can't get over that new guy on channel 8.. he forecasted 3-6" for CT for saturdays storm on friday night lol BED and BOS soundings are almost identical. I think you'll be ok. ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ding ding ding And the american models are trash... too bad the Euro has a warmer boundary layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z GFS ensembles continue to be pretty impressive. They match the EC ensembles pretty good too. I think someone will pull a 4 spot out of this. They have a little 6 hr max of just over 0.25" to your west. Seems reasonable to think somebody could pull 4 or 5". dong diong dong dong dong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 And the american models are trash... too bad the Euro has a warmer boundary layer Yea, the EURO was gold @ 48 hrs prior to this past event....since you love to refer to it so often. Not sure what is so unreasonable about 1-3" at the lower levels and a spot 4 in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 That range ought to cover it. Their snowfall map has 4" here...but last week it had 21" and I got 10"...... The 18Z GFS has .4" qpf here. . ALB has 2-7" in their AFD. lol Highlights their NE areas.I think we'll get a nice refreshing snowfall. Beautiful afternoon skiing with the family at the B'east. Just a great local gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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