40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Man.....I have never seen a snowpack this deep be so resilient....I lost 1" today. 28" depth. It's because of the sleet on Wednesday..Feb 2007 pack was like this, but it was only like 1\3 of the depth....I have never in my life seen a snowpack contain this kind of WE. WOW. High hit 39 and we are now 36.2\29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On the Euro verbatim you hang around 35F and then are over it by 18z. Objectively, BL concerns for YBY are valid. So now you're basing forecasts on 2m Euro temps that notoriously run warm? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On the Euro verbatim you hang around 35F and then are over it by 18z. Objectively, BL concerns for YBY are valid. This event blows and always has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 nice. hopefully you can score a good event. Yeah I think most of the interior is fine..and hopefully even you guys down there can switch to snow and grab a couple inches. As we've seen all winter..these things really tend to amplify the last 24 hrs on the models. I think a good forecast from any reasonable met would be 2-5 2 in valleys..5 in hills and I would also mention there is potential for a bit more if the trend of the year with past storms continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 WOW what a beautiful day, nice to have a mini thaw before the next storm and cold that follows. Snowpack took a beating today, just measured 15 in the backyard and only 12 in the front which gets sun. Nice little freshner tom night into tuesday. But for at least a day the sun sure felt nice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 First call for Tues: 1-3" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah I think most of the interior is fine..and hopefully even you guys down there can switch to snow and grab a couple inches. As we've seen all winter..these things really tend to amplify the last 24 hrs on the models. I think a good forecast from any reasonable met would be 2-5 2 in valleys..5 in hills and I would also mention there is potential for a bit more if the trend of the year with past storms continues we'll see what happens. i'd definitely play this conservative in the snow department for a good chunk of the area. if precip gets steady/heavier i'll feel better. if it's intermittent and generally light i don't know how easy it will be to get going with accumulations etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 So now you're basing forecasts on 2m Euro temps that notoriously run warm? LOL Well the 925mb temps on the Euro show a rain to snow event for you. As for 3-5" I see no support for that anywhere in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Man.....I have never seen a snowpack this deep be so resilient....I lost 1" today. 28" depth. It's because of the sleet on Wednesday..Feb 2007 pack was like this, but it was only like 1\3 of the depth....I have never in my life seen a snowpack contain this kind of WE. WOW. High hit 39 and we are now 36.2\29 Rain + several freeze-thaw-freeze cycles --> 1-2 foot glaciers that will be here for weeks. We may even have a reasonable snowpack to build on when winter decides to return from vaca. This event blows and always has. Agree. Unless that 500m vort can continue digging more negative over Tenn/Miss (see my post earlier comparing 6Z vs. 12Z vs. 18Z NAM), this'll be a sloppy snizzle at best. CT Blizz = Don Quixote on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah I think most of the interior is fine..and hopefully even you guys down there can switch to snow and grab a couple inches. As we've seen all winter..these things really tend to amplify the last 24 hrs on the models. I think a good forecast from any reasonable met would be 2-5 2 in valleys..5 in hills and I would also mention there is potential for a bit more if the trend of the year with past storms continues Like Saturday's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Like Saturday's? lol well 850's and thicknesses are plenty cold mon nite/ tues am so the seasonal trend i think would create more dynamic cooling (assuming furher NW = formidable LP just inside benchmark) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Like Saturday's? The Saturday storm did trend northwest lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 lol well 850's and thicknesses are plenty cold mon nite/ tues am so the seasonal trend i think would create more dynamic cooling (assuming furher NW = formidable LP just inside benchmark) yeah...ironically we need the low closer to get colder. Light precip has a tough time cooling the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 FWIW my forecast for 6 is 2"-4" Litchfield County CT, NW Hartford County CT up into the Berkshires and N ORH County Slushy 1-2" for DXR, HFD, BDL, Tolland, east to Ray/Boston Up to 1" South of PVD and southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well the 925mb temps on the Euro show a rain to snow event for you. As for 3-5" I see no support for that anywhere in CT. It is ok to think outside the box and not just use the models verbatim Will and Scooter said 2-4 and BOX has 3- 5..so apparently there is some merit to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Like Saturday's? Correct me if I'm wrong..but it did come well NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong..but it did come well NW But it was mainly rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It is ok to think outside the box and not just use the models verbatim Will and Scooter said 2-4 and BOX has 5..so apparently there is some merit to it Will and Scott are forecasting 2-4" for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 But it was mainly rain lol Right..but what was my initial point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOL, it truly was a miracle. I still don't know how the hell it happened. Watching model guidance make the jump west one by one was more exciting than the storm itself. It's too bad it wasn't a bigger hit in SNE. If widespread 12-24" had verified, the storm would have been one of the more memorable events in our lifetime. As it is, even just within this winter, Boxing Day is overshadowed by 1/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Will and Scott are forecasting 2-4" for you? I don';t know. Going by their posts..that is what they said the Euro had for almost all of SNE away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 FWIW my forecast for 6 is 2"-4" Litchfield County CT, NW Hartford County CT up into the Berkshires and N ORH County Slushy 1-2" for DXR, HFD, BDL, Tolland, east to Ray/Boston Up to 1" South of PVD and southern CT. Pretty much spot on with OKX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 FWIW my forecast for 6 is 2"-4" Litchfield County CT, NW Hartford County CT up into the Berkshires and N ORH County Slushy 1-2" for DXR, HFD, BDL, Tolland, east to Ray/Boston Up to 1" South of PVD and southern CT. Agree....but I could see up to 3" in the higher terrain of the said corridor, such as Kev and Will.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 so is it unanimous that unless something unlikely changes the SNE winner is gonna be the berks and adjacent elevated areas (i.e MPM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 But it was mainly rain lol Cmon', dude...I think we can agree that this one end up deforming the tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18Z GFS was about 150-200 nm east of the benchmark...more amped than 12z but not enough yet for something more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I don';t know. Going by their posts..that is what they said the Euro had for almost all of SNE away from the coast They could have been referring to central and western Mass. there are clear boundary layer issues on the Euro (and not just 2M temps!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18Z GFS was about 150-200 nm east of the benchmark...more amped than 12z but not enough yet for something more significant. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 so is it unanimous that unless something unlikely changes the SNE winner is gonna be the berks and adjacent elevated areas (i.e MPM) . . . unless SLP tracks closer to coast and more intense precipitation helps cool the column more. . . unlikely but not impossible this norlun / nw-extension crap is not going to cut it for eastern Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 . . . unless SLP tracks closer to coast and more intense precipitation helps cool the column more. . . unlikely but not impossible this norlun / nw-extension crap is not going to cut it for eastern Mass Just about always is just that....crap. This type of events are so half-azzed....just gimme a damn low near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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