CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The NAM and GFS both gave us snow for days and days So what is your forecast then for the hills and the valley for snow tomorrow night? I'm literally just sitting down at work and making the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm literally just sitting down at work and making the forecast Well what are your initial thoughts? You must have an idea.. Snow for hills? Mix for valley and shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm literally just sitting down at work and making the forecast 1to 3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The NAM and GFS both gave us snow for days and days So what is your forecast then for the hills and the valley for snow tomorrow night? Maybe the models are too cold for this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well what are your initial thoughts? You must have an idea.. Snow for hills? Mix for valley and shore? I'd say maybe some accumulation in NW Hills... 1-3? Slushy inch or so elsewhere with a gusty winds and freeze up by midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 1to 3"? 3-6?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'd say maybe some accumulation in NW Hills... 1-3? Slushy inch or so elsewhere with a gusty winds and freeze up by midday. That's it?? Euro gives solid 2-4 1-3?? Why not the NE hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 That's it?? Euro gives solid 2-4 1-3?? Why not the NE hills? Because they get more snow than you normally and I haven't made any forecast yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 That's it?? Euro gives solid 2-4 1-3?? Why not the NE hills? Euro does not give a solid 2-4 in most places with boundary layer issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro does not give a solid 2-4 in most places with boundary layer issues It does in the all of the hills Also for BL issues in valley most of this falls tomorrow night which helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 First call IMBY: 2-5'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It does in the all of the hills Also for BL issues in valley most of this falls tomorrow night which helps Euro is warmer than the GFS... and the GFS mixes you with rain for the first half of a very minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro is warmer than the GFS... and the GFS mixes you with rain for the first half of a very minor event. Ok we'll see. I guess Willand Scott were wrong about the Euro then since they both agreed 2-4 except for coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like 2 -3" for many on the euro. Euro looks like a 2-4" type deal...maybe a bit less along the coast with some early BL issues. Bump for Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Ok we'll see. I guess Willand Scott were wrong about the Euro then since they both agreed 2-4 except for coast The Euro verbatim probably mixes you with rain at some point... looks like a solid 2-4" north and west of you from God's Country into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Bump for Ryan Jesus lol...let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Bump for Ryan Great for them. Enjoy your rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Jesus lol...let it go. Let what go? We're having a wx discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Great for them. Enjoy your rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On the Euro verbatim you hang around 35F and then are over it by 18z. Objectively, BL concerns for YBY are valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On the Euro verbatim you hang around 35F and then are over it by 18z. Objectively, BL concerns for YBY are valid. ding ding ding. Especially when N CT only gets 0.25" of QPF. I certainly wouldn't forecast 2"-4" based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 To be honest the damaging wind threat and flash freeze threat midday Tuesday is more exciting than the inch of slop Kevin gets around 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Extrapolating the Nam at 84 ( ) looks like the Thursday threat would be a decent bit NW of the other models. FWIW, which is absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Just saw the 18z NAM ... This appears similar to the event - so many I can't recall specific dates - that had convective feedback problems until the last couple of runs out in time. This run came in more potent with the S/W dynamics carving into the lower MV, enough so that the stubbornly high SE heights are less damping to some degree. Nevertheless, the run still fails to pull the deepening low in closer to the coast where it should be given to the nascent establishment of baroclinic axis along and just W of the Gulf Stream interface with cP air. It will be interesting going forward to seeing if that gets corrected some. Also, get a load of that power over the British Columbia cordellera! 120kts at 500mb level is wicked at 24 hours out on this run. Hmmm, that's a HUGE amount of jet momentum and it was this impulse that gave to the original GFS bombs on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 John, are you talking about 12/26? I saw someone else compare it to that, minus the NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The Euro verbatim probably mixes you with rain at some point... looks like a solid 2-4" north and west of you from God's Country into NNE. the 850s are plenty cold but man the low levels just suck. the 12z ec has all of SNE excluding extreme NW MA above 0C at 925 mb. +2C running basically from DXR NE to HFD to PVD. that general theme is on most guidance. it's not too often in feb we see such low thicknesses and nice mid-level temps and a BM track bring rain. i dont know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the 850s are plenty cold but man the low levels just suck. the 12z ec has all of SNE excluding extreme NW MA above 0C at 925 mb. +2C running basically from DXR NE to HFD to PVD. that general theme is on most guidance. it's not too often in feb we see such low thicknesses and nice mid-level temps and a BM track bring rain. i dont know. Yeah all the models show a really warm BL. It's definitely concerning for most places in SNE outside of the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 BOX with an AWT AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...WE USED A BLEND OF HPC VALUES AND LOCALLY GENERATED VALUES FROM QPF. THIS BRINGS 3-5 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR...AND AN INCH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF RAIN WITH ANY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah all the models show a really warm BL. It's definitely concerning for most places in SNE outside of the hills. check your PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 BOX with an AWT AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...WE USED A BLEND OF HPC VALUES AND LOCALLY GENERATED VALUES FROM QPF. THIS BRINGS 3-5 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR...AND AN INCH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF RAIN WITH ANY SNOW. nice. hopefully you can score a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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