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Looking beyond Feb 5-6th event


Baroclinic Zone

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The 18z NAM actually looks significantly better at 36 hours than the 12z run...it has higher heights over the NE and is more negative at 500mb. There is also more distance from the northern stream shortwave. The surface low is closer...but the lift stays further southeast as the vort runs off the coast by 42 hours.

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The 18z NAM actually looks significantly better at 36 hours than the 12z run...it has higher heights over the NE and is more negative at 500mb. There is also more distance from the northern stream shortwave. The surface low is closer...but the lift stays further southeast as the vort runs off the coast by 42 hours.

seasonal trend . i mean it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to shift whatever models show now 75 miles NW would it.

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18z NAM looks pretty meh qpf wise. Maybe an inch or 2 with more to the NW. Room for more then that though.

Don't bother looking at the qpf. :arrowhead:

A couple inches to freshen things up, maybe some lollies to 5" should do it. I'm good with that after yesterdays' zr.

32.6/26

EDIT: From BOX:

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN...

SHELBURNE

311 PM EST SUN FEB 6 2011

.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. NEAR

STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. BLUSTERY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...INCREASING

TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE

OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

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Anybody know what the Norlun that dropped 16" in CT looked like on the models around 36-48 hours out? In that event, wasn't it modeled with like .25-.50" QPF then trended stronger and stronger each run?

I think the NAM had it strong from the get go, but not as much as I got, but the signature was there strongest, if I remember correctly

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Compare 6Z vs. 12Z vs. 18Z NAM. . .

Keep ticking more negative like this another 4 runs and maybe just maybe we can catch slp closer to the coast

6Z

12Z

18Z

------

Beautiful torch of a day out there... whatever further snowfall we will have Feb/March, I think scenes/hopes of apocalyptic snowbanks in Boston metro have seen the climax this season. More photos to come...

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JB onboard

I look for alot of 3-6 and 4-8 with this, but if we can get a bit more phasing tom night, amounts from pa northeast could really jump as the problem is the model is trying to develop the offshore low more so than the original wave, which comes through Northern va NJ.

A lot of the precip initially is rain or a rain/snow mix for most of the coastal plain.

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Do you honestly think that will happen in the valley? I mean come on..After what those models just did with this storm this weekend

What did the models do this weekend? I got mostly rain so they seemed good to me. If anything when we got close to the event they were verifying a bit too cold in the boundary layer.

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What did the models do this weekend? I got mostly rain so they seemed good to me. If anything when we got close to the event they were verifying a bit too cold in the boundary layer.

The NAM and GFS both gave us snow for days and days

So what is your forecast then for the hills and the valley for snow tomorrow night?

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