Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Below the belt. Seriously. No record snow depth and posters become mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Seriously. No record snow depth and posters become mean. unprecedented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Banana hammocks will be running rampant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Below the belt. lol but what some running totals on c.c and their relation to average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 lol but what some running totals on c.c and their relation to average? I'll defer that to Phil, but even he is abv avg I believe. The upper Cape is def above avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 SREFs are NW from 09z run... the 0.25" gradient gets to 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 SREFs are NW from 09z run... the 0.25" gradient gets to 128 looks in line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like the 18z NAM is digging more than the 12z NAM.. hopefully it can pop something closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro ensembles are se of the BM. Looks like some qpf for a chunk of sne, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro ensembles are se of the BM. Looks like some qpf for a chunk of sne, however. how far SE? I think all major 12z guidance was SE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I like the grey look, Scoot.....it screams "distinguished gentlemen".... lookin for a sugar daddy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z NAM is a meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 how far SE? I think all major 12z guidance was SE as well. Maybe 60 or 70 miles se, but do show an inv trough signature into sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Maybe 60 or 70 miles se, but do show an inv trough signature into sne. Looks like the 18z NAM is showing it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 18z NAM actually looks significantly better at 36 hours than the 12z run...it has higher heights over the NE and is more negative at 500mb. There is also more distance from the northern stream shortwave. The surface low is closer...but the lift stays further southeast as the vort runs off the coast by 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z NAM looks pretty meh qpf wise. Maybe an inch or 2 with more to the NW. Room for more then that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Anybody know what the Norlun that dropped 16" in CT looked like on the models around 36-48 hours out? In that event, wasn't it modeled with like .25-.50" QPF then trended stronger and stronger each run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 18z NAM actually looks significantly better at 36 hours than the 12z run...it has higher heights over the NE and is more negative at 500mb. There is also more distance from the northern stream shortwave. The surface low is closer...but the lift stays further southeast as the vort runs off the coast by 42 hours. seasonal trend . i mean it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to shift whatever models show now 75 miles NW would it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z NAM looks pretty meh qpf wise. Maybe an inch or 2 with more to the NW. Room for more then that though. Don't bother looking at the qpf. A couple inches to freshen things up, maybe some lollies to 5" should do it. I'm good with that after yesterdays' zr. 32.6/26 EDIT: From BOX: WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 311 PM EST SUN FEB 6 2011 .MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. BLUSTERY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 JB onboard I look for alot of 3-6 and 4-8 with this, but if we can get a bit more phasing tom night, amounts from pa northeast could really jump as the problem is the model is trying to develop the offshore low more so than the original wave, which comes through Northern va NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Anybody know what the Norlun that dropped 16" in CT looked like on the models around 36-48 hours out? In that event, wasn't it modeled with like .25-.50" QPF then trended stronger and stronger each run? I think the NAM had it strong from the get go, but not as much as I got, but the signature was there strongest, if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Compare 6Z vs. 12Z vs. 18Z NAM. . . Keep ticking more negative like this another 4 runs and maybe just maybe we can catch slp closer to the coast 6Z 12Z 18Z ------ Beautiful torch of a day out there... whatever further snowfall we will have Feb/March, I think scenes/hopes of apocalyptic snowbanks in Boston metro have seen the climax this season. More photos to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 JB onboard I look for alot of 3-6 and 4-8 with this, but if we can get a bit more phasing tom night, amounts from pa northeast could really jump as the problem is the model is trying to develop the offshore low more so than the original wave, which comes through Northern va NJ. A lot of the precip initially is rain or a rain/snow mix for most of the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 A lot of the precip initially is rain or a rain/snow mix for most of the coastal plain. He excluded SE New England in that.. For the majority of our posters..this is a solid snow threat..even for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 He excluded SE New England in that.. For the majority of our posters..this is a solid snow threat..even for you. For BDL it looks pretty close to rain for a majority of the event at least on the GFS and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 For BDL it looks pretty close to rain for a majority of the event at least on the GFS and NAM Do you honestly think that will happen in the valley? I mean come on..After what those models just did with this storm this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Do you honestly think that will happen in the valley? I mean come on..After what those models just did with this storm this weekend What did the models do this weekend? I got mostly rain so they seemed good to me. If anything when we got close to the event they were verifying a bit too cold in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'll defer that to Phil, but even he is abv avg I believe. The upper Cape is def above avg. I think ave. Is 30 to 38ish east to west. I'm definitely above so far. I'll probably catch ray by march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What did the models do this weekend? I got mostly rain so they seemed good to me. If anything when we got close to the event they were verifying a bit too cold in the boundary layer. The NAM and GFS both gave us snow for days and days So what is your forecast then for the hills and the valley for snow tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 For BDL it looks pretty close to rain for a majority of the event at least on the GFS and NAM Hopefully we can overcome the mild BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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