Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't see: - a meaningful thaw, wall to wall this winter. - an end to repeating storms, which is an artifact of a solar min (most likely) driven suppression of the westerlies in latitude in constant fight with rare antithetic ENSO - the two bring into existence ambient gradients N to S through mid latitudes everywhere that are extreme for planetary physics, and the steady stream of impulses is a function of just about any perturbation anywhere getting a tremendous positive feed-back off of tapping into ambient positive instability. I do see: -clearly we are seeing the previous notion of a meaningful -PNA collapsing, and yet another -NAO (that is not yet in magnitude on the models btw...) emerging, related to the previous point. -there is an SSWE underway, which is linearly heavily correlated to occurring during onset and in situ solar minuma; if propagating in nature, drills the AO to hell. -logistical madness with snow management gets no alleviation .... CULMINATING IN -a dangerous scenario if a category 6 rumbles up the coast. This 18z ...12z earlier for that matter, are just whack close to paralyzing the area, and i don't mean in a ha-ha 'isn't that cool', bring it on way - i mean, people could die there. we get a 10" blue snow cap this weekend, which will be a helluva lot more difficult to manage than these nice powder affairs of late, into an already constipated mega pack. ...then, if the NAO explodes next week, which i am 50/50 at this point that what is an emerging signal is not yet in magnitude on the runs, that 18z is not only a full latitude phaser, but it slows down. All of this is on the table and not discountable just yet. sounds good, I'm still wondering what 130mph winds at 850 means for in terms of sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Oh now it's rhetoric, in the fall it was fantasy weenism, that's OK lol. It'll be fun in June to look at the last piles of snow and bask in the glow of an awesome Winter that the 3 prophets spoke of well in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 lol. It'll be fun in June to look at the last piles of snow and bask in the glow of an awesome Winter that the 3 prophets spoke of well in advance. my plan is to take that last pile, and freeze it, to tell my kids and grandkids someday, "this is the last surviving piece of snow from the great winter of 2010-2011" maybe someday I could sell it on ebay, I bet Ray buys it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Speaking of last piles, I'm forming a high mountain on the side of my deck...it gets 0 sun. But pretty soon it's going to spill over the fence into the neighbor's yard. I could keep it near the top as long as this run lasts and probably have a good shot of having it deep into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Speaking of last piles, I'm forming a high mountain on the side of my deck...it gets 0 sun. But pretty soon it's going to spill over the fence into the neighbor's yard. I could keep it near the top as long as this run lasts and probably have a good shot of having it deep into spring. I don't think the Ledges will be opening on March 27 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Speaking of last piles, I'm forming a high mountain on the side of my deck...it gets 0 sun. But pretty soon it's going to spill over the fence into the neighbor's yard. I could keep it near the top as long as this run lasts and probably have a good shot of having it deep into spring. My wife thinks I am sick very sick, watching Blizzard of 78 special right now, I have a big huge eight foot tall mound of deck snow that I keep adding ice and snow to. When the thaw comes for real I am going to put a tarp over it . I want to preserve the winter of my life snow for as long as possible Tip, the AO signal grows stronger every day, mutation of warm signals appearing today on ENS, balls to the wall, belly to belly. Something huge is brewing with wind, rain/snow lines aside,you are right huge societal impacts signalled. 1717 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 my plan is to take that last pile, and freeze it, to tell my kids and grandkids someday, "this is the last surviving piece of snow from the great winter of 2010-2011" maybe someday I could sell it on ebay, I bet Ray buys it. LOL great idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 all this talk of a torch is worrisome. it looks like we are still about 2 weeks aways so lets hope it changes. zonal pattern with a decent high in quebec will be just fine, as long as we dont get a big trough out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 sounds good, I'm still wondering what 130mph winds at 850 means for in terms of sensible weather. Well we had 100 last winter with gust to 55 , inversion in cold season.Freight train sounds overhead with winds gusting to 50 down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 My wife thinks I am sick very sick, watching Blizzard of 78 special right now, I have a big huge eight foot tall mound of deck snow that I keep adding ice and snow to. When the thaw comes for real I am going to put a tarp over it . I want to preserve the winter of my life snow for as long as possible Tip, the AO signal grows stronger every day, mutation of warm signals appearing today on ENS, balls to the wall, belly to belly. Something huge is brewing with wind, rain/snow lines aside,you are right huge societal impacts signalled. 1717 or bust. What? wWhere? Just got back from skiing perfect pp at ... well, you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't see: - a meaningful thaw, wall to wall this winter. - an end to repeating storms, which is an artifact of a solar min (most likely) driven suppression of the westerlies in latitude in constant fight with rare antithetic ENSO - the two bring into existence ambient gradients N to S through mid latitudes everywhere that are extreme for planetary physics, and the steady stream of impulses is a function of just about any perturbation anywhere getting a tremendous positive feed-back off of tapping into ambient positive instability. I do see: -clearly we are seeing the previous notion of a meaningful -PNA collapsing, and yet another -NAO (that is not yet in magnitude on the models btw...) emerging, related to the previous point. -there is an SSWE underway, which is linearly heavily correlated to occurring during onset and in situ solar minuma; if propagating in nature, drills the AO to hell. -logistical madness with snow management gets no alleviation .... CULMINATING IN -a dangerous scenario if a category 6 rumbles up the coast. This 18z ...12z earlier for that matter, are just whack close to paralyzing the area, and i don't mean in a ha-ha 'isn't that cool', bring it on way - i mean, people could die there. we get a 10" blue snow cap this weekend, which will be a helluva lot more difficult to manage than these nice powder affairs of late, into an already constipated mega pack. ...then, if the NAO explodes next week, which i am 50/50 at this point that what is an emerging signal is not yet in magnitude on the runs, that 18z is not only a full latitude phaser, but it slows down. All of this is on the table and not discountable just yet. :snowman: :snowman: But seriously, these depths are already borederline dangerous for driving. A few more storms without melting = HUGE problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What? wWhere? Just got back from skiing perfect pp at ... well, you know... Connecticut public TV, sucked but the video and pics were cool, CT east got what we got but middle west missed the real deal. The stories and pics of UCONN kids having the campus to themselves for a week and jumping out of second story windows into the snow brought back memories of URI. Man Bastardi is predicting1717 LOL,now that would be a rhetorical LA Epic birthday present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Does his hype have any merit? (does it ever?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Speaking of last piles, I'm forming a high mountain on the side of my deck...it gets 0 sun. But pretty soon it's going to spill over the fence into the neighbor's yard. I could keep it near the top as long as this run lasts and probably have a good shot of having it deep into spring. Do it and take a picture every week so we can monitor it into June! If you keep it large and cover it will some wood chips you might keep it into the summer. You could have barbeques in the heat and people could sit on to stay cool during the summer heat. Then if it gets cold in early fall you can start building it up again..it'll be like the "mother" snow pile...sort of like a sourdough bread starter. Weenies could visit it for blessings and good luck. Could be a good business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GYX AFD from 8:58PM: 18Z GFS SHOWS AN INTENSIFYING LOW CROSSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE (42 MB DEEPENING IN 12 HRS!). IT CRASHES DOWN TO 931 MB IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DOUBT THAT WILL VERIFY...SINCE WE ARE SO FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT IT'S JUST AMUSING TO LOOK AT IN ANY CASE. NEVER SEEN THAT KINDA OF DEEPING FROM A NUMERICAL MODEL IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GYX AFD from 8:58PM: 18Z GFS SHOWS AN INTENSIFYING LOW CROSSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE (42 MB DEEPENING IN 12 HRS!). IT CRASHES DOWN TO 931 MB IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DOUBT THAT WILL VERIFY...SINCE WE ARE SO FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT IT'S JUST AMUSING TO LOOK AT IN ANY CASE. NEVER SEEN THAT KINDA OF DEEPING FROM A NUMERICAL MODEL IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS. yeah, likely will not verify, but just showing such a storm must mean something.. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well we had 100 last winter with gust to 55 , inversion in cold season.Freight train sounds overhead with winds gusting to 50 down here. I remember that storm.. windy as heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 yeah, likely will not verify, but just showing such a storm must mean something.. I guess. Agreed, not likely, but it is an interesting signal...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Oh now it's rhetoric, in the fall it was fantasy weenism, that's OK It's ok to post thoughts about the downsides to the possible pattern breakdown. Not everything has to be filled with snow bomb fantasies. Sometimes it gets a little overboard in here with everyone posting about epic snows till may and what not. When people post anything that is anti-snow, an uproar happens. I love snow as much as any of you, but at the same time..I post thoughts I have as well. Sometimes they won't be filled with thoughts of epic blizzards..lol. FWIW I'm not saying winter is over by any means. I have my fingers crosses the warmth is forced south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's ok to post thoughts about the downsides to the possible pattern breakdown. Not everything has to be filled with snow bomb fantasies. Sometimes it gets a little overboard in here with everyone posting about epic snows till may and what not. When people post anything that is anti-snow, an uproar happens. I love snow as much as any of you, but at the same time..I post thoughts I have as well. Sometimes they won't be filled with thoughts of epic blizzards..lol. FWIW I'm not saying winter is over by any means. I have my fingers crosses the warmth is forced south. I don't really see a torch looking at the 12z ECM OP...it appears a monster -NAO is starting to develop at Day 10 with >0C 850s over Greenland: The polar vortex is also sitting right over Quebec, which is a signal for cold in New England given the blocking building into the North Atlantic. The ridge over eastern Greenland is starting to look like a -AO as the polar low gets forced away from the North Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't really see a torch looking at the 12z ECM OP...it appears a monster -NAO is starting to develop at Day 10 with >0C 850s over Greenland: The polar vortex is also sitting right over Quebec, which is a signal for cold in New England given the blocking building into the North Atlantic. The ridge over eastern Greenland is starting to look like a -AO as the polar low gets forced away from the North Pole. If the NAO developed like the OP is implying it would beyond D10, then it would save us from a milder pattern...but that is not guaranteed to happen like that. There is increased sign of zonal flow which could warm things up for a bit if something like a reemerging Greenland block doesn't come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Connecticut public TV, sucked but the video and pics were cool, CT east got what we got but middle west missed the real deal. The stories and pics of UCONN kids having the campus to themselves for a week and jumping out of second story windows into the snow brought back memories of URI. Man Bastardi is predicting1717 LOL,now that would be a rhetorical LA Epic birthday present. Whats he saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't really see a torch looking at the 12z ECM OP...it appears a monster -NAO is starting to develop at Day 10 with >0C 850s over Greenland: The polar vortex is also sitting right over Quebec, which is a signal for cold in New England given the blocking building into the North Atlantic. The ridge over eastern Greenland is starting to look like a -AO as the polar low gets forced away from the North Pole. I agree - and actually, I am of the school that all we are really just looking at is a prelude to a pattern reload. This happened 2 other times this season, where the teleconnectors tried to flag the warm assault, only to collapse back. The issue is, I don't see the drive to change the pattern really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If the NAO developed like the OP is implying it would beyond D10, then it would save us from a milder pattern...but that is not guaranteed to happen like that. There is increased sign of zonal flow which could warm things up for a bit if something like a reemerging Greenland block doesn't come to fruition. I think a two - three day mini thaw is in the cards right now but tempered to near 40 or so. This thaw period is day 11-13 but may be briefer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think a two - three day mini thaw is in the cards right now but tempered to near 40 or so. This thaw period is day 11-13 but may be briefer than that. That's what the ensembles imply ..perhaps a 3 to maybe 5 day spell with milder temps, then the NAO tries to force the colder air south. It's going to be a battle with the -PNA so we should cheer for the -nao to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i guess just hope that PNA doesnt tank as much and go for a zonal pattern during the relaxation ....or the NAO to return would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00Z GFS trending deeper with the vortmax for that Monday-Tuesday Miller B threat. Still not quite there, but it's closer than 18Z. I still think there's a chance something might happen here. Wouldn't write it off just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Biblical storm Tippy societal impact storm on the GFS, monster mash, would bury 3/4 and call for boats the ther. Massive coastal floodinand bitter tru arctic winds. Nice structure wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Biblical storm Tippy societal impact storm on the GFS, monster mash, would bury 3/4 and call for boats the ther. Massive coastal floodinand bitter tru arctic winds. Nice structure wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 OMG at the 0z gfs. lol Now that would be biblical. hmmmmm that storm and a storm that stalls are the only ones we haven't had this year I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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