40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Man the euro is drilling the arctic south...should get close I probably should have compared to prior runs....my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Thursday is one of those pivotal events for the month. It would suck for it to be OTS, but we'll see what happens over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Name one. Name what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Name one. JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I probably should have compared to prior runs....my bad. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Thursday is one of those pivotal events for the month. It would suck for it to be OTS, but we'll see what happens over the next 48 hours. I agree 100%...for the season....without it, don't think I catch 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Huh? You said that Thurs should get close...or at least I thought you did....I thought it was gonna whiff on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 JMA. The best model out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You said that Thurs should get close...or at least I thought you did....I thought it was gonna whiff on this run. I think he meant the arctic boundary/cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I think he meant the arctic boundary/cold Oh....ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I think he meant the arctic boundary/cold Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This one is for HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 This one is for HSE. Was about to say, this is looking more and more like a southern mid-atlantic snowstorm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This one is for HSE. I'll give it until Wed, after how much the EURO just vomitted on itself at 48 hrs with respect to this past system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'll give it until Wed, after how much the EURO just vomitted on itself at 48 hrs with respect to this past system. The problem right now is there is almost zero guidance bringing anything remotely close to us for later this week. We need something to start popping up somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'll give it until Wed, after how much the EURO just vomitted on itself at 48 hrs with respect to this past system. That's true, but we are gonna need some huge changes in the 500 pattern. Nothing is impossible, but I don't like the looks of it, at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not sure if it can come all the way back in time for us..though it could. I'd bet we se a run or 2 get snow up into central and southern Jersey. Sometimes these are how the big ones start..looking like misses and then one run boom. Remember the Boxing day debacle..when it was OTS and then we got the Christmas miracle..Recall there were runs that crushed us before it went OTS. Something to keep in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The problem right now is there is almost zero guidance bringing anything remotely close to us for later this week. We need something to start popping up somewhere. Yea, it's looking bleak.....but I'd keep an eye on it. Of course it will nail this one at day 5, but when it showed snow at day 2, it fell apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not sure if it can come all the way back in time for us..though it could. I'd bet we se a run or 2 get snow up into central and southern Jersey. Sometimes these are how the big ones start..looking like misses and then one run boom. Remember the Boxing day debacle..when it was OTS and then we got the Christmas miracle..Recall there were runs that crushed us before it went OTS. Something to keep in mind LOL, it truly was a miracle. I still don't know how the hell it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If you don't like what you see on the normal guidance...just turn to the JMA again...perfect weenie model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 We were due to have our luck run out and it looks like that is happening, this month. Feb 2011= Feb 2005 and 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The euro just rots a low se of ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOL, it truly was a miracle. I still don't know how the hell it happened. It pretty much looked like this one lol...we had all given up after thinking it was a huge hit initially. Then the American trash hit and that night the Euro got a clue and then the ensembles came west.. it may not happen..but something to think about anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Was about to say, this is looking more and more like a southern mid-atlantic snowstorm threat. We will get heavy snow from this event. Book it. And then the pattern relaxes for a week as do the backs from shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 We were due to have our luck run out and it looks like that is happening, this month. Feb 2011= Feb 2005 and 1996. Feb. 2005 turned it on at the end though. I got 16" in the final week. Of course that was a weak Nino so I don't know if we'll pull that off this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If you don't like what you see on the normal guidance...just turn to the JMA again...perfect weenie model That's yesterday's run, but your point still stands. Although the GFS has had bigger debacles this year than it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The February 2005 total is a bit misleading because a storm the end of the month dumped over 10 inches of snow along the South Coast that had the lowest water content you could possibly imagine. February 1996 wasn't all that bad giving us two moderate snowstorms that gave most of the area 6 inches plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Feb. 2005 turned it on at the end though. I got 16" in the final week. Of course that was a weak Nino so I don't know if we'll pull that off this time. Feb '05 was pretty good down my way, especially the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 In huge snow years when Dec/Jan are epic, Feb always is "pedestrian". 1994, 1996, 2005 are the most recent examples. So I expect BOS to have no more than 20 this month (and we already have 10.4 there). March determines whether or not we go to the races with a new record. I suspect 2/21-3/15 are as epic as the past 3 weeks. Then we relax for a well deserved rest as spring comes in early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 We were due to have our luck run out and it looks like that is happening, this month. Feb 2011= Feb 2005 and 1996. You make it sound like this month will go down snowless. What is your Feb avg? You have over 13" 6 days into the month with more possible Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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