MaineJayhawk Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Man the GFS is disgusting for Thursday. Nice partly cloudy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Seasonal trend for a stronger northern stream continues. Great Lakes / Ontario s/w is shearing less each run and actually becoming more neutrally tilted by Tuesday morning. The effect is to back the mid level winds more, and allow for more ridging downstream of the southern s/w. IMO this trend continues and we see a solid advisory to low end warning snow storm for many. I've been told everything has changed so how is this possible.lol I agree with you Sam, not far off from a decent little thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Just assume 10:1 until we get closer. Most of the storms here are around 10:1 or maybe 12:1. Can't go wrong with that. typically here in MHT my ratis are higher than you generally at least 12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah both are sort of working in tandem, but I could see how the nrn stream may screw it up as well, if there is too much interaction. Yeah, I could see that too, but I think we'd rather see a more amplified northern stream than sheared out zonal flow. I'm thinking back to January 26-27 ... not an entirely different set up Main difference actually was that we had a -NAO with cold high pressure over us before the storm. We don't have that luxury this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 typically here in MHT my ratis are higher than you generally at least 12:1 You can't just assume that. Every storm is different. You can't go wrong assuming 10:1 or 12:1 for now. People are way to infatuated with ratios this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Man the GFS is disgusting for Thursday. There is almost zero ridging out W. Looks like there is a closed ULL heading into the GOA that is beating down the heights out W and pushing the trough axis E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah, I could see that too, but I think we'd rather see a more amplified northern stream than sheared out zonal flow. I'm thinking back to January 26-27 ... not an entirely different set up Main difference actually was that we had a -NAO with cold high pressure over us before the storm. We don't have that luxury this time Yeah I thought about that. Personally, I would rather have the nrn stream take a hike, but it is also probably helping to keep this low further offshore. Stronger nrn stream would keep a hang back low just east of BOS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 I've been told everything has changed so how is this possible.lol I agree with you Sam, not far off from a decent little thump. It has changed. We are in a positive phase of the NAO and AO. How much snow did you get yesterday? 3 weeks ago yesterdays storm would have been a 6"+ event for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah, I could see that too, but I think we'd rather see a more amplified northern stream than sheared out zonal flow. I'm thinking back to January 26-27 ... not an entirely different set up Main difference actually was that we had a -NAO with cold high pressure over us before the storm. We don't have that luxury this time The Jan 26-27 airmass was actually quite modified by the time the main storm got to us. We had a couple appetizer rounds that wiped out the frigid airmass. That's why CT and down to NJ mixed before the main show got going. This airmass does seem a little worse in the low levels though. A more consolidated system would probably really help out the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I've been told everything has changed so how is this possible.lol I agree with you Sam, not far off from a decent little thump. lol well the northern stream amplification is a characteristic of La Nina I believe, so even as the strong La Nina begins to show its teeth, this seasonal trend shouldn't change I kinda like how this is looking right now. Nice refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Maybe some decent orographic snows for the west slopes of the greens by late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 lol well the northern stream amplification is a characteristic of La Nina I believe, so even as the strong La Nina begins to show its teeth, this seasonal trend shouldn't change I kinda like how this is looking right now. Nice refresher. This may be the last system to watch for roughly a week unless late next week trends more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It has changed. We are in a positive phase of the NAO and AO. How much snow did you get yesterday? 3 weeks ago yesterdays storm would have been a 6"+ event for you. That was a joke, you know, haha. Looks like snow coming in here tomorrow night and nice and cold the rest of the week. The beat goes on. BTW, MRG has picked up 27" in the last 4 days.Off to ski the B'east now. Winter fun continues unbroken. Trust me, much more snow yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks sort of like a pasty snow even near the coast. I suppose the one good thing, is that erly flow is light as the convergence zone basically sets up overhead. It looks like a mix here, than maybe flipping to snow near or before 12z as dynamics take over. It's marginal for a few hours here. yeah your area looks borderline but probably OK. south of you to out here the lowest 2K feet are less than perfect. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Canadian is a little east of 00z, by 12z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 That was a joke, you know, haha. Looks like snow coming in here tomorrow night and nice and cold the rest of the week. The beat goes on. BTW, MRG has picked up 27" in the last 4 days.Off to ski the B'east now. Winter fun continues unbroken. Trust me, much more snow yet to come. This week looks nice for skiing. I don't doubt there is more snow to come, lol, it's only Feb 6th. This is not the M.Atl. where the sun angle is like FL right now. Some of our biggest events come in Feb/Mar. We're just going to have to wait for a return of the -NAO/AO for the real good stuff imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Canadian is a little east of 00z, by 12z Tuesday. Looks very similar to the 12z RGEM position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks very similar to the 12z RGEM position. Looks like around 0.4" down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Canadian is a little east of 00z, by 12z Tuesday. East = bad at this juncture? Temps ticked back down. 32.7/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You can see how the GFS op is showing the delicate balance of these weak cold snaps moving in...just in time for low pressure to cross near and just south of sne. Just a very minor change in the heights near the NAO and EPO region will have a huge impact in sensible wx for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 typically here in MHT my ratis are higher than you generally at least 12:1 Stick to 10:1 and go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Stick to 15:1 and go from there It's the NH way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Stick to 20:1 and go from there It's the snowNH way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It's the snowNH way. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yeah your area looks borderline but probably OK. south of you to out here the lowest 2K feet are less than perfect. LOL. tough call...surface is warm verbatim out this way. wbz heights not great but not as bad as first glance would indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It's the snowNH way. LOL I loved the succession of posts there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 No issues with my roof here. Just went outside and there is about 1-2" on about 70-80% of the roof. Zero ice at the eaves and the gutters are draining nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well here is the essential weenie statement. The ensembles are still OTS, but look better than the op for Thursday. Canadian however, is horribly OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well here is the essential weenie statement. The ensembles are still OTS, but look better than the op for Thursday. Canadian however, is horribly OTS. Canadian was threatening Bermuda with this last storm a few days out, fwiw which is nothing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 We will see if the euro holds serve or ticks west, Looks like a 2-4" deal right now with .25" qpf on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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